Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Alianza Valledupar2Atletico Bucaramanga3

HT 1–2Sun 9 Aug 2026, 21:05 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 8–5On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 3–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Aug 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest

A draw-heavy matchup with low scoring expected.

The best value lies in under 9.5 corners (+6% edge) and over 4.5 cards (+5.4% edge), while the draw at 3.00 offers a slim edge. Avoid Alianza -1 handicap and over 1.5 home goals due to their weak attack.

Context

Alianza Valledupar home league record: 2W-5D-2L in last 9.
- Bucaramanga away league record: 1W-4D-5L in last 10.
- Alianza's last 5 home league matches: 1W-3D-1L.
Bucaramanga away league record: 1 win in last 10.
- They have lost 5 of those 10 away matches.
- Only 7 goals scored in 10 away games (0.7 per game).
Alianza home first-half goals: 0.6 for, 0.3 against (0.9 total).
- Bucaramanga away first-half goals: 0.5 for, 0.6 against (1.1 total).
- 4 of Alianza's last 5 home matches had under 1.5 first-half goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits, and Alianza's home form shows a strong tendency to share points, making a draw the most likely outcome.
- Alianza Valledupar home record: 2W-5D-2L in last 9 home league matches, with 5 draws.
- Bucaramanga away record: 1W-4D-5L in last 10 away league matches, with 4 draws.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: 1W-3D-1L, including draws vs Fortaleza, Millonarios, Deportivo Pasto.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: 1W-2D-2L, including draws at Llaneros and Cucuta.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alianza Valledupar are tough to beat at home, losing only twice in 9 home games, while Bucaramanga struggle to win on the road, making a home win or draw highly probable.
- Alianza Valledupar home record: 2W-5D-2L, meaning 7 of 9 home matches without defeat.
- Bucaramanga away record: only 1 win in 10 away matches.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: only 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAlianza Valledupar or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high half-time draw rates in their respective home/away splits, and recent patterns show a strong tendency for level scores at the break.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: led at half-time in 40% of games, trailed in 20%, drawn in 40%.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: led at half-time in 13% of games, trailed in 40%, drawn in 47%.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: half-time results: D, L, D, D, W.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: half-time results: D, D, L, L, L.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals0 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alianza Valledupar's home games are low-scoring, and Bucaramanga's away matches often feature few goals, supporting a low total.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: 7 goals for, 9 against in 9 games, averaging 1.78 total goals per game.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: 7 goals for, 14 against in 10 games, averaging 2.1 total goals per game, but 6 of 10 away games had under 2.5 goals.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a slight tendency for at least one side to fail to score in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a clean sheet is more likely than both scoring.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: both teams scored in only 3 of 9 games.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: both teams scored in 4 of 10 games.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: both teams scored in 2 of 5.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: both teams scored in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alianza Valledupar have a moderate clean sheet rate at home, and Bucaramanga's away scoring struggles increase the chance of a home shutout.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: kept 3 clean sheets in 9 games.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: failed to score in 4 of 10 games.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: kept 2 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAtletico Bucaramanga not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bucaramanga's away clean sheet rate is low, but Alianza Valledupar's occasional home scoring droughts give a small chance of an away clean sheet.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: kept 2 clean sheets in 10 games.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: failed to score in 3 of 9 games.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: failed to score in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAlianza Valledupar not to scoreEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates in their respective home/away splits, making a quiet first half likely.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: first half goals average 0.6 for, 0.3 against, total 0.9 per game.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: first half goals average 0.5 for, 0.6 against, total 1.1 per game.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: 4 of 5 had under 1.5 first half goals.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: 4 of 5 had under 1.5 first half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bucaramanga's away matches tend to see more goals after the break, and Alianza Valledupar's home second halves occasionally open up, giving a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: second half goals average 0.5 for, 0.6 against, total 1.1 per game.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: second half goals average 0.9 for, 0.8 against, total 1.7 per game.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: 2 of 5 had over 1.5 second half goals.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away corner averages are below 9.5, and recent matches consistently produce low corner counts, supporting an under.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: average 4.1 corners for, opponent corners 5.0, total 9.1 per game.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: average 4.5 corners for, opponent corners 4.3, total 8.8 per game.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: total corners: 2+2, 5+3, 3+8, 6+4, 7+5, averaging 9.0 per game.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: total corners: 3+1, 5+8, 3+6, 4+6, 6+1, averaging 8.6 per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away card averages are above 4.5, and recent matches consistently see at least 5 cards, making over 4.5 likely.
- Alianza Valledupar home league matches: average 3.0 yellow cards for, opponent 2.3, total 5.3 per game.
- Bucaramanga away league matches: average 2.5 yellow cards for, opponent 2.8, total 5.3 per game.
- Alianza Valledupar last 5 home league matches: total cards: 2+3, 2+2, 6+3, 4+1, 3+2, averaging 5.6 per game.
- Bucaramanga last 5 away league matches: total cards: 5+5, 0+3, 2+1, 1+2, 2+4, averaging 5.0 per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied probability of 24% leaves no edge against our 22% estimate; the price accurately reflects the draw-heavy profile.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

W2-1Alianza ValleduparvBucaramangaMay 24, 2026COP

L5-0BucaramangavAlianza ValleduparFeb 1, 2026PRI

L3-1BucaramangavAlianza ValleduparSep 6, 2025PRI

L1-3Alianza ValleduparvBucaramangaAug 3, 2025PRI

L1-2Alianza ValleduparvBucaramangaMar 23, 2025PRI

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13-27	17	LDDDL
13	Atletico Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26-20	23	DDWLD

6pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Alianza Valledupar

L1-2Deportes TolimaAug 1PRI

D1-1Fortaleza FCJul 26PRI

W2-1BucaramangaMay 24COP

L0-1Deportivo CaliMay 21COP

W3-0Real SantanderMay 16COP

D1-1PopayanMay 8COP

D2-2MillonariosMay 3PRI

D0-0LlanerosApr 26PRI

L0-1Independiente MedellinApr 19PRI

L1-2Internacional de BogotaApr 13PRI

W3-2Deportivo PereiraApr 6PRI

D0-0Deportivo PastoApr 1PRI

L0-1Águilas DoradasMar 27PRI

W1-0Deportivo CaliMar 22PRI

W1-0JaguaresMar 19PRI

Atletico Bucaramanga

D1-1CucutaAug 4PRI

D1-1LlanerosJul 31PRI

W1-0MillonariosJul 25PRI

L1-2Alianza ValleduparMay 24COP

L2-3PopayanMay 21COP

L0-2Deportivo CaliMay 11COP

W5-0Real SantanderMay 8COP

L1-2Fortaleza FCMay 3PRI

D2-2JaguaresApr 25PRI

L0-2Atletico NacionalApr 21PRI

W5-0ChicoApr 12PRI

L1-2Águilas DoradasApr 7PRI

L0-2America de CaliApr 2PRI

L1-2Santa FeMar 28PRI

L0-2JuniorMar 24PRI

Squad & Injuries

Alianza Valledupar

37 available

Attackers10

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Atletico Bucaramanga

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Alianza Valledupar or Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Alianza Valledupar

Over 1.5

Under 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Alianza Valledupar

Atletico Bucaramanga

Squad & Injuries

Alianza Valledupar

Atletico Bucaramanga