Draw
Market 49% · BetBugs 50%
Both teams have high half-time draw rates (Fenix 47%, La Luz 46%), and La Luz's away first halves have all been 0-0.
Segunda DivisiónFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Expect a tight, low-scoring match at Parque Capurro.
The standout value is first-half under 0.5 goals at 2.60, with a 55% estimated probability versus a 38.5% implied chance, driven by La Luz’s goalless away first halves and both teams’ high half-time draw rates.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
Market 49% · BetBugs 50%
Both teams have high half-time draw rates (Fenix 47%, La Luz 46%), and La Luz's away first halves have all been 0-0.
Market 59.9% · BetBugs 60%
H2H pattern strongly favors low-scoring affairs, and La Luz's away games consistently stay under 2.5 goals.
Market 38.5% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams average low first-half scoring, and La Luz's away first halves have been goalless, making a 0-0 half time likely.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 51% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fenix Montevideo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13-7 | 11 |
| 9 | La Luz FC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5-6 | 7 |

