Over 2.5
Market 57.1% · BetBugs 65%
Lech's high shot volume (19.7/game) and 2.4 goals/game average suggest they can breach KI's defense multiple times, especially at home where they've been prolific.
UEFA Europa LeagueFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Lech Poznan are likely to win, but the 1.15 odds offer no value.
The best betting edge is both teams to score at 2.10, with a 12-point gap between our 60% estimate and the market's 47.6%. Over 2.5 Lech home goals at 1.75 and over 3.5 total goals at 2.00 also present value, while the first-half result market is overpriced given KI's resilience.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
Market 57.1% · BetBugs 65%
Lech's high shot volume (19.7/game) and 2.4 goals/game average suggest they can breach KI's defense multiple times, especially at home where they've been prolific.
Market 50% · BetBugs 55%
Lech's firepower (2.4 goals/game) and KI's ability to score (1.7/game) make over 3.5 a plausible value play at even money.
Market 47.6% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Lech's defensive vulnerabilities (conceded in 10 of 15) make it likely KI will find the net.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Odds of 1.15 imply an 87% win probability, far above our 72% estimate, offering negative value and no cushion for variance.

