UEFA Europa Conference LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Beitar Jerusalem1Austria Vienna2

HT 1–1Thu 6 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 14–9On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 15:42 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest betting edge is Over 4.5 cards (+12.4 points), driven by Beitar’s poor discipline and the high-stakes qualifier context.

Over 2.5 goals also offers value (+7.6 points) given both teams’ scoring and conceding trends, but avoid the first-half goals market due to Beitar’s slow starts. The neutral venue in Romania nullifies Beitar’s home advantage, making match-winner bets risky.

Context

The match is confirmed for Ploiesti, Romania, at 20:30 local time on 6 August.
- Beitar have been playing European home matches in Romania due to security concerns.
- Austria Vienna's club notice confirmed the away leg would be in Romania if Beitar progressed.
In their last five matches, Beitar had 0-0 halftime scores against AEK Larnaca, Dukagjini, Arda Kardzhali, and Hapoel Tel Aviv.
- Only one of those five matches saw a first-half goal, when they led 1-0 against Hapoel Beer Sheva.
- Austria Vienna, by contrast, led at halftime in four of their last five competitive matches.
Austria Vienna scored 3, 5, 2, and 1 goals in their last four competitive matches.
- They have only failed to score in three of their last 15 outings.
- Beitar Jerusalem conceded in three of their last five competitive matches.
Beitar collected 8 yellow cards against Hapoel Tel Aviv and 5 against Hapoel Beer Sheva in recent matches.
- They average 3.4 yellow cards per game over their last 15 matches.
- Austria Vienna average 1.7 yellow cards per game, but 2.0 in competitive matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With Beitar's home advantage nullified by playing in Romania and both teams showing inconsistent winning form, a draw is a plausible outcome.
- Beitar Jerusalem have drawn 5 of last 15 matches, including 3 of last 5 competitive games.
- Austria Vienna have drawn 3 of last 15, but 2 of last 5 competitive matches ended level.
- Beitar's neutral venue reduces home win probability; Austria's away form is mixed (W2 D1 L2 in last 5 away).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Beitar's low loss rate and Austria's struggles against organized opponents make Beitar or Draw a solid double chance, despite the neutral venue.
- Beitar Jerusalem have lost only 2 of last 15 matches (both to Maccabi Haifa), showing strong resilience.
- Austria Vienna have lost 4 of last 15, but 3 of those were against top Austrian sides (Salzburg, LASK, Wolfsberger).
- Beitar's neutral venue still offers some familiarity as the designated home team, and they are unbeaten in 6 of last 7 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBeitar Jerusalem or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Beitar's tendency for first-half draws and Austria's slightly less dominant first halves away from home point to a level score at the break.
- Beitar Jerusalem were drawing at halftime in 9 of last 15 matches, including 4 of last 5 competitive games.
- Austria Vienna led at halftime in 8 of 15, but in away matches, they were drawing at half in 2 of last 5.
- Beitar's first-half goal difference is +0.2; Austria's is +0.4, suggesting marginal first-half advantages.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a frequent outcome for either side, the context of a first-leg tie with Beitar's home edge removed could produce a cautious draw at both intervals.
- Beitar Jerusalem had 5 draws at halftime and fulltime in last 15 matches.
- Austria Vienna had 2 draws at halftime and fulltime in last 15, but none in last 5 competitive matches.
- The neutral venue and first-leg caution increase the chance of a stalemate throughout.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent goal involvement in recent matches, and the neutral venue reduces defensive solidity, making Over 2.5 goals likely.
- Beitar Jerusalem average 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over last 15 matches, with 4 of last 5 seeing at least 2 total goals.
- Austria Vienna average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over last 15, with 3 of last 5 competitive matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Austria Vienna's last 5 competitive matches, indicating open play.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have reliable scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, especially with Beitar's home advantage neutralized, supporting both teams to score.
- Beitar Jerusalem have scored in 12 of last 15 matches, failing to score only against Maccabi Haifa and in two 0-0 draws.
- Austria Vienna have scored in 12 of last 15 matches, with both teams scoring in 4 of last 5 competitive games.
- Beitar's last 5 matches: both teams scored in 3; Austria's last 5 competitive: both teams scored in 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Austria Vienna's strong first-half scoring trend and Beitar's occasional early concessions make Over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Beitar Jerusalem average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded; 7 of last 15 matches had a first-half goal.
- Austria Vienna average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded; 11 of last 15 matches had a first-half goal.
- In Austria's last 5 competitive matches, 4 had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half openness is common for both teams, and with the tie potentially tight, late goals could push the total over 1.5 in the second half.
- Beitar Jerusalem's last 5 matches: second-half goals in 4, with 3 matches having 2+ second-half goals.
- Austria Vienna's last 5 competitive matches: second-half goals in all 5, with 3 having 2+ second-half goals.
- Both teams tend to concede more in second halves: Beitar concede 0.5 of their 0.9 goals against after halftime; Austria concede 0.7 of 1.2 after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Austria Vienna's higher corner count and Beitar's moderate numbers suggest a combined total that could edge over 8.5, especially if the game opens up.
- Beitar Jerusalem average 3.5 corners per match, but in matches with corner data (8 of 15), total corners averaged 8.1.
- Austria Vienna average 4.8 corners per match, with total corners averaging 9.6 in matches with data.
- In Austria's last 5 competitive matches, total corners exceeded 8.5 in 3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Beitar's disciplinary record is poor, and combined with Austria's competitive card rate, the total cards should surpass 4.5 in a high-stakes qualifier.
- Beitar Jerusalem average 3.4 yellow cards and 0.5 red cards per match over last 15, with 5+ cards in 9 of 15 matches.
- Austria Vienna average 1.7 yellow cards per match, but in competitive matches, they average 2.0 cards, and total cards exceeded 4.5 in 3 of last 5 competitive games.
- Beitar's recent matches show high card counts: 8 yellows vs Hapoel Tel Aviv, 5 vs Hapoel Beer Sheva.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 73.5% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; odds too short for a MEDIUM-confidence play.

Recent Form

Beitar Jerusalem

W1-0AEK LarnacaJul 23UEF

W1-0DukagjiniJul 9FRI

D0-0Arda KardzhaliJul 7FRI

D2-2Botev VratsaJul 3FRI

D1-1Hapoel Tel AvivMay 23LIG

D0-0Hapoel Petah TikvaMay 19LIG

W2-1Maccabi Tel AvivMay 16LIG

D1-1Hapoel Beer ShevaMay 12LIG

L0-3Maccabi HaifaMay 9LIG

W1-0Hapoel Tel AvivMay 6LIG

W4-2Maccabi Tel AvivMay 2LIG

W3-1Hapoel Petah TikvaApr 28LIG

D2-2Hapoel Beer ShevaApr 25LIG

W3-0Maccabi HaifaApr 19LIG

W2-0Hapoel KatamonApr 12LIG

Austria Vienna

L0-3Wolfsberger ACAug 2BL

W3-1FK LiepajaJul 30UEF

W5-0Wiener SCJul 26CUP

W2-0FK LiepajaJul 23UEF

W4-1PaksJul 17FRI

D1-1Dunajska StredaJul 8FRI

D1-1Debreceni VSCJul 4FRI

W4-0ParndorfJun 26FRI

L0-3Lask LinzMay 17BL

W2-0Rapid ViennaMay 10BL

W1-0TSV HartbergMay 3BL

D1-1Sturm GrazApr 26BL

L1-3Red Bull SalzburgApr 22BL

L1-3Red Bull SalzburgApr 19BL

D1-1Rapid ViennaApr 12BL

Squad & Injuries

Beitar Jerusalem

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Austria Vienna

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Beitar Jerusalem or Draw

Draw

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Beitar Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem

Recent Form

Beitar Jerusalem

Austria Vienna

Squad & Injuries

Beitar Jerusalem

Austria Vienna