Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Millonarios2Deportivo Pasto0

HT 1–0Wed 5 Aug 2026, 01:20 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 33%–67%ShotsShots 17–5On targetOn target 10–1CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 01:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Millonarios are strong at home but overpriced at 1.55; the real value is in the first-half draw (2.25) and under 0.5 first-half goals (2.80), with a 65% and 60% estimated probability respectively.

Avoid backing the hosts outright, and consider under 2.5 goals (1.83) as a secondary play.

Context

Millonarios' July 31 medical bulletin confirmed Aguirre is unavailable for this match.
- Aguirre started most Apertura home games where Millonarios conceded only 7 goals in 10 matches.
Pasto won 2-1 at home on 29 January 2026.
- Before that, Millonarios had won three of the previous four meetings (1-0, 1-0, 2-1).
Millonarios averaged 0.5 first-half goals in Apertura and trailed at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Four of their last five matches across all competitions were goalless at half-time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Millonarios' strong home form (only 1 loss in 10 Apertura home games) and Pasto's poor start to Clausura (0 points from 2 matches) give the hosts a clear edge, though the recent H2H loss tempers confidence.
- Millonarios home record in Apertura: 6W-3D-1L, 19 goals for, 7 against in 10 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto away record in Apertura: 4W-2D-3L, 15 goals for, 17 against in 9 matches.
- Millonarios won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, but Pasto won the most recent 2-1 in January 2026.
- Millonarios are on a 2-match winning streak in Clausura (1-0 away vs Junior), while Pasto lost both Clausura matches so far.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMillonariosEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Millonarios are very hard to beat at home (1 loss in 10), and Pasto's current form is dire, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- Millonarios home record in Apertura: only 1 loss in 10 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto away record in Apertura: 3 losses in 9 matches, with a -2 goal difference.
- Pasto have lost both Clausura matches, conceding 5 goals.
- H2H at Millonarios: last 2 meetings were 1-0 and 0-0, both in Millonarios' favor.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMillonarios or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of first-half draws in recent H2H and Millonarios' slow starts make a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- Millonarios led at half-time in only 13% of Apertura matches, trailing in 33%.
- Deportivo Pasto led at half-time in 33% of Apertura matches, but only 20% away.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 were draws at half-time.
- Millonarios' last 5 matches: 4 were draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Millonarios tend to improve after the break at home, while Pasto's defense weakens, but the low sample size and Pasto's recent H2H win keep confidence low.
- Millonarios scored 1.2 second-half goals per home match in Apertura, conceding 0.4.
- Deportivo Pasto conceded 1.1 second-half goals per away match in Apertura.
- In the last 5 H2H, Millonarios won the second half in 3 matches (2 wins, 1 draw).
- Millonarios' last 2 Clausura matches: won second half 1-0 in both.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonMillonariosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of Millonarios drawing at half-time and winning at full-time has occurred in recent H2H, but it's a specific sequence with low base probability.
- Millonarios drew at half-time in 54% of Apertura matches (7/13 with data).
- Millonarios won 60% of home matches in Apertura.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 matches were draw at HT and Millonarios win at FT (1-0 and 1-0).
- Pasto lost both Clausura matches, trailing at HT in one and drawing in the other.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/MillonariosEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H trends and Millonarios' home defensive solidity (7 goals conceded in 10 home games) point to a low-scoring affair, despite Pasto's leaky defense.
- Millonarios home matches in Apertura averaged 2.6 total goals, but 6 of 10 had under 2.5 goals.
- Deportivo Pasto away matches in Apertura averaged 3.55 total goals, but recent Clausura matches: 2-3 loss and 1-2 loss.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 had under 2.5 goals (1-0, 1-0, 0-0).
- Millonarios' last 5 matches across all competitions: 3 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Millonarios' strong home defense and Pasto's scoring struggles on the road suggest at least one team will fail to score, consistent with recent H2H patterns.
- Millonarios kept 5 clean sheets in 10 Apertura home matches.
- Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches across all competitions.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 1 match (the 2-1 Pasto win).
- Millonarios' last 2 Clausura matches: 0-1 loss at home, 1-0 win away, both with only one team scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Millonarios have been solid defensively at home, Pasto's ability to score in most away games makes a home clean sheet a coin-flip, hence low confidence.
- Millonarios kept clean sheets in 50% of Apertura home matches (5/10).
- Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Pasto scored in 7 of 9 Apertura away matches, but only 1 goal in each of their last 2 away losses.
- Millonarios' last home match was a 0-1 loss to Bucaramanga, breaking a 4-match home clean sheet streak.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Pasto not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Millonarios particularly low first-half scoring at home, and H2H history shows a strong pattern of goalless first halves.
- Millonarios averaged 0.5 first-half goals in Apertura, with 13% leading at half-time.
- Deportivo Pasto averaged 0.9 first-half goals in Apertura, but only 0.5 in away matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches were 0-0 at half-time.
- Millonarios' last 5 matches: 4 had 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Millonarios' home matches tend to produce corners, and recent H2H meetings have exceeded 8.5 corners, though Pasto's low corner count adds uncertainty.
- Millonarios averaged 6.4 corners per match in Apertura, with 6.2 at home.
- Deportivo Pasto averaged 4.4 corners per match, with 4.0 away.
- Combined average corners in Millonarios home matches: 10.2 (6.2 + 4.0 opponent corners).
- Last 5 H2H with corner data: 3 matches had over 8.5 corners (9, 10, 9).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and their meetings often see a few cards, but card markets are volatile, hence low confidence.
- Millonarios averaged 2.2 yellow cards per match in Apertura, with 2.4 at home.
- Deportivo Pasto averaged 3.2 yellow cards per match, with 3.0 away.
- Combined average cards in Millonarios home matches: 5.4 (2.4 + 3.0 opponent cards).
- Last 5 H2H with card data: 3 matches had over 4.5 cards (5, 6, 5).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Odds of 1.55 imply a 65% chance, but our estimate is only 55%; the price is too short and offers negative value.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

L2-1Deportivo PastovMillonariosJan 29, 2026PRI

W1-0MillonariosvDeportivo PastoSep 11, 2025PRI

D0-0MillonariosvDeportivo PastoJul 21, 2025PRI

W0-1Deportivo PastovMillonariosFeb 1, 2025PRI

D0-0Deportivo PastovMillonariosDec 9, 2024PRI

Millonarios: 4 clean sheetsDeportivo Pasto: 2 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31-23	26	WLDWL
3	Deportivo Pasto Post season qualification	19	10	4	5	29-25	34	LLLLL

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Millonarios

W1-0JuniorAug 2PRI

L0-1BucaramangaJul 25PRI

L0-1Colo ColoJul 18FRI

L0-2UniversitarioJul 11FRI

W8-1Depor FCMay 30COP

L1-2O'HigginsMay 26CON

D2-2ChicoMay 23COP

D1-1Sao PauloMay 20CON

W3-2PatriotasMay 15COP

W1-0LlanerosMay 12COP

W4-2Boston RiverMay 7CON

D2-2Alianza ValleduparMay 3PRI

D0-0Sao PauloApr 29CON

W2-0Deportes TolimaApr 24PRI

L1-3America de CaliApr 20PRI

Deportivo Pasto

L1-2Águilas DoradasAug 1PRI

W3-0Bogota FCJul 29COP

L2-3Independiente MedellinJul 25PRI

L0-1Bogota FCJul 22COP

L0-2Deportes TolimaMay 13PRI

L0-1Deportes TolimaMay 9PRI

L3-4JuniorMay 3PRI

L1-2Santa FeApr 23PRI

W3-2JaguaresApr 17PRI

W1-0Deportes TolimaApr 11PRI

D0-0Alianza ValleduparApr 1PRI

L1-2Atletico NacionalMar 29PRI

W2-1Fortaleza FCMar 25PRI

W2-0ChicoMar 18PRI

L2-4Once CaldasMar 13PRI

Squad & Injuries

Millonarios

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Deportivo Pasto

26 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Millonarios

Millonarios or Draw

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Millonarios

Millonarios or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Millonarios

Deportivo Pasto

Squad & Injuries

Millonarios

Deportivo Pasto