Draw or Tristan Suarez
Market 72% · BetBugs 80%
Tristan Suarez are unbeaten in 7 H2H (1W,6D) and CA Guemes have lost 10 of their last 15, making a home win highly unlikely.
Primera NacionalFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Back 'Draw or Tristan Suarez' and 'Under 2.5 Goals' with high confidence, as the visitors' unbeaten H2H record and defensive solidity meet a struggling Guemes side.
The best value lies in 'First Half Under 0.5 Goals', where our 65% estimate offers a 15-point edge over the market. Avoid the straight draw and away win, which are fairly priced.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 72% · BetBugs 80%
Tristan Suarez are unbeaten in 7 H2H (1W,6D) and CA Guemes have lost 10 of their last 15, making a home win highly unlikely.
Market 50% · BetBugs 65%
Both teams average low first-half goal numbers, and Tristan Suarez's recent defensive form points to a cagey opening period.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 55% · Market 57%
Both teams rarely lead at half-time (CA Guemes led 13%, Tristan Suarez led 7% in last 15) and H2H history shows 3 of last 5 level at the break.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 42% vs our 45% estimate leaves only a 3pt edge, below the 5pt threshold for MEDIUM confidence; the price already reflects the draw-heavy H2H.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | CA GuemesRelegation | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19-36 | 19 |
| 4 | Tristan SuarezPromotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs) | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 18-11 | 36 |

