PremiershipFull time

Predictions graded

St Johnstone4Kilmarnock3

HT 1–1Sun 2 Aug 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 15–7On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 08:28 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight Premiership opener is expected, with St Johnstone's homecoming motivation and strong form making them unlikely to lose, but Kilmarnock's recent H2H edge and Tshibola's return add balance.

The best value lies in the Draw at 3.40 (6% edge), while Over 0.5 First Half Goals is a high-confidence play given both teams' early scoring records. Avoid the Double Chance St Johnstone or Draw at short odds, as the market has already priced in the home side's resilience.

Context

This is St Johnstone's first top-flight fixture since winning promotion, with the home crowd adding extra energy.
- The match is the season opener, so there is no table pressure, but the homecoming provides a one-off motivation edge.
Thompson made 40 appearances and provided five assists in 2025/26, confirming his regular role.
- His departure was confirmed on 28 July, just five days before the opener, leaving little time to adjust.
Tshibola was re-signed on 23 July and returned from the bench on 25 July, with the club noting he dictated play.
- His presence offsets some of the disruption from Thompson's exit by reinforcing the midfield.
Kilmarnock won 2-0 at St Johnstone in May 2025 and 3-1 at home in February 2025.
- The last draw in this fixture was a 1-1 result in March 2023, showing a long pattern of decisive outcomes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

St Johnstone or Draw

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75%

0.0ppshort

St Johnstone's strong overall form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, despite Kilmarnock's quality.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently score early, with St Johnstone netting in the first half in 10 of 15 and Kilmarnock in 9 of 15; H2H shows first-half goals in 4 of last 5 meetings.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and H2H trends support goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Opening-day motivation and St Johnstone's homecoming boost counter Kilmarnock's recent H2H edge, making a draw the most balanced outcome.
- St Johnstone's last 15 matches: 12 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; last 5: 4 wins, 1 loss, with 3 clean sheets.
- Kilmarnock's last 15 matches: 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses; last 5: 4 wins, 1 loss, with 3 clean sheets.
- H2H last 5: 4 away wins, 1 home win; last 3 meetings all won by home side.
- St Johnstone home form (last 15): 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses (only 1 home match in data, but strong overall home record).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Johnstone's strong overall form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, despite Kilmarnock's quality.
- St Johnstone lost only 1 of last 15 matches (away to Inverness CT).
- Kilmarnock lost 4 of last 15, including 2 of last 5 away matches.
- St Johnstone's home record in data: 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses (small sample but dominant).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Johnstone or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half records, and the opening-day caution may lead to a level first half.
- St Johnstone led at half-time in 53% of last 15 matches; trailed in 13%.
- Kilmarnock led at half-time in 53% of last 15 matches; trailed in 20%.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time, 2 Kilmarnock leads, 1 St Johnstone lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Johnstone's strong second-half defensive record and home support may help them edge the second period.
- St Johnstone scored 1.0 second-half goals on average; conceded 0.1.
- Kilmarnock scored 1.0 second-half goals on average; conceded 0.5.
- St Johnstone's home momentum and fitness could give them a late edge.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSt JohnstoneEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight, cautious opening match could lead to a stalemate at both intervals, though historical data doesn't strongly support it.
- St Johnstone drew at half-time in 5 of last 15; full-time draws in 2 of 15.
- Kilmarnock drew at half-time in 4 of last 15; full-time draws in 2 of 15.
- H2H last 5: no draw/draw outcomes.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and H2H trends support goals.
- St Johnstone averaged 2.2 goals scored per match over last 15; 8 of 15 matches had over 2.5 total goals.
- Kilmarnock averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over last 15; 8 of 15 matches had over 2.5 total goals.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had over 2.5 goals, including both 2025 meetings (2-0 and 3-1).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides are in good scoring form, and Kilmarnock's defensive vulnerabilities on the road increase the chance of both scoring.
- St Johnstone scored in 13 of last 15 matches; conceded in only 4 of last 15.
- Kilmarnock scored in 12 of last 15 matches; conceded in 8 of last 15.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but Kilmarnock scored in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score early, making a first-half goal highly likely.
- St Johnstone averaged 1.2 first-half goals over last 15; scored in first half in 10 of 15 matches.
- Kilmarnock averaged 0.9 first-half goals over last 15; scored in first half in 9 of 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score after the break, and the match is expected to open up in the second half.
- St Johnstone's second-half goal difference: +1.0 per match on average (2.2 total - 1.2 first half).
- Kilmarnock's second-half goal difference: +1.0 per match on average (1.9 total - 0.9 first half).
- H2H last 5: second-half goals in 4 of 5 matches, with 2 matches having over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's matches tend to have higher corner counts, and St Johnstone's attacking style may contribute to corners.
- St Johnstone averaged 2.0 corners per match (limited data: only 2 matches with corner stats).
- Kilmarnock averaged 4.1 corners per match over 15 matches; opponents averaged 4.7 corners against them.
- Combined average corners in Kilmarnock matches: 8.8 per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's matches see a moderate number of cards, and the competitive nature of the fixture could push the total over.
- St Johnstone averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match (limited data: only 2 matches with card stats).
- Kilmarnock averaged 2.2 yellow cards per match over 15 matches; opponents averaged 1.5 yellow cards.
- Combined average cards in Kilmarnock matches: 3.7 per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 75% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W0-2ST JohnstonevKilmarnockMay 3, 2025PRE

L3-1KilmarnockvST JohnstoneFeb 15, 2025PRE

L1-0ST JohnstonevKilmarnockNov 23, 2024PRE

W0-3KilmarnockvST JohnstoneAug 11, 2024PRE

W0-2ST JohnstonevKilmarnockApr 13, 2024PRE

St Johnstone: 3 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	St Johnstone Premiership (Relegation Group)	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
5	Kilmarnock Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

St Johnstone leads the leagueKilmarnock leads the leagueSt Johnstone in relegation zone

Recent Form

St Johnstone

L0-1Inverness CTJul 21LEA

W3-0MortonJul 18LEA

W2-0Linlithgow RoseJul 14LEA

W4-2Cove RangersJul 11FRI

W3-0MontroseJul 4FRI

W4-0Forfar AthleticJun 30FRI

W1-0Ayr UtdMay 1CHA

W2-0Raith RoversApr 24CHA

W2-0DunfermlineApr 21CHA

W4-0Airdrie UnitedApr 11CHA

W4-2ArbroathApr 4CHA

D1-1Queen's ParkMar 28CHA

D0-0PartickMar 20CHA

W1-0Ross CountyMar 14CHA

W2-0MortonMar 7CHA

Kilmarnock

W1-0Hamilton AcademicalJul 21LEA

W1-0Elgin CityJul 18LEA

W3-2LinfieldJul 4FRI

W4-0GlentoranJul 1FRI

W4-1LivingstonMay 17PRE

W3-1DundeeMay 12PRE

W3-0ST MirrenMay 9PRE

W3-0Dundee UtdMay 2PRE

L0-1AberdeenApr 25PRE

D2-2DundeeApr 11PRE

L0-3HibernianApr 4PRE

W2-0LivingstonMar 21PRE

W1-0Heart Of MidlothianMar 14PRE

L1-5FalkirkFeb 28PRE

D1-1Dundee UtdFeb 21PRE

Squad & Injuries

St Johnstone

27 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Kilmarnock

26 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3