Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Colorado Rapids1Austin0

HT 0–0Sun 2 Aug 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 24–8On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 11–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 08:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Back the Under 2.5 goals (65% estimate, 21.5-point edge) and Under 1.5 first-half goals (65% estimate, 0.5-point edge) in a fixture where four of the last five meetings stayed low.

For higher risk-reward, the Over 4.5 cards at 4.00 offers a 35-point edge given Colorado's disciplinary record and H2H trends. Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, where the market is overconfident.

Context

Estevez and sporting director Rodolfo Borrell were dismissed on May 18.
- Davy Arnaud remains listed as interim head coach on the club's official staff page.
- Austin lost 3-0 at Houston on July 25, conceding three goals in the first 32 minutes.
Austin's away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses.
- They have conceded 28 goals in 9 away games, an average of 3.1 per match.
- Austin have scored only 10 away goals, failing to score in 5 of those 9 matches.
Colorado's home record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses.
- The three home defeats were against St. Louis City, FC Dallas, and Inter Miami, all higher in the table.
- Colorado have scored 16 goals and conceded 9 at home, averaging 2.29 total goals per home match.
Last five H2H results: 2-0, 1-0, 3-2, 2-0, 1-0.
- Four of those five matches had under 2.5 goals.
- At least one team kept a clean sheet in four of the five matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge heavily favors Colorado, who have a perfect home win-or-loss record and face an Austin side with zero away wins.
- Colorado home record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses (16 goals for, 9 against).
- Austin away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses (10 goals for, 28 against).
- Colorado won 2 of the last 3 home H2H meetings against Austin.
- Austin is winless in 9 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColorado RapidsEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Austin's complete inability to win away (0-3-6) combined with Colorado's solid home form makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Colorado home: 4 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; Austin away: 0 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses.
- Austin has not won any of their 9 away matches this season.
- Colorado has lost only 3 of 7 home games, all to teams above them in standings.
- H2H at Colorado: 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonColorado Rapids or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for first-half draws, with Colorado drawing 40% of recent first halves and H2H showing three draws in last five meetings.
- Colorado led at half-time in 33% of recent matches, trailed in 27%, and drew in 40%.
- Austin led at half-time in 36% of recent matches, trailed in 43%, and drew in 21%.
- In the last five H2H meetings, half-time results: D, D, L, W, D (three draws).
- Colorado's home first-half record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in last 7 home games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and Austin's interim-coach struggles underpin a low-scoring pattern, with four of the last five meetings staying under 2.5 goals.
- Four of the last five H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals (2023-2025).
- Colorado home matches average 2.29 total goals (16 for, 9 against in 7 games), with 4 of 7 under 2.5.
- Austin away matches average 4.22 total goals (10 for, 28 against in 9 games), but recent form shows 3 of last 5 overall under 2.5.
- Austin failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches, including a 3-0 loss at Houston.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H clean-sheet trend and Austin's poor away scoring form (5 blanks in 9 away games) make both teams scoring unlikely.
- In the last five H2H meetings, at least one team kept a clean sheet in four matches.
- Austin failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Colorado kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Austin's away record: only 10 goals scored in 9 away games, with 5 blanks.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, and H2H history shows four of last five meetings had under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Colorado averages 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Austin averages 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded over last 15 matches.
- In the last five H2H meetings, first-half total goals: 0, 1, 2, 0, 0 (four under 1.5).
- Austin trailed at half-time in 43% of recent matches, but scored first-half goals in only 36%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite low first-half scoring, both teams tend to concede and score more after the break, with recent home/away splits showing second-half goals in most matches.
- Colorado's last 5 home matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (total 8 goals).
- Austin's last 5 away matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (total 10 goals).
- Overall, Colorado matches average 1.3 second-half goals, Austin matches average 1.5.
- H2H last 5 meetings: second-half goals in 4 of 5 (total 7 goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home defensive record is not strong, and Austin has consistently found the net in this fixture, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Colorado kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 7 home matches this season.
- Austin scored in 6 of 9 away matches, despite low overall away scoring.
- Colorado conceded in 5 of last 7 home matches across all competitions.
- Austin has scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings against Colorado.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAustin to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Austin's away defensive record is poor, Colorado's occasional home blanks and H2H history of Austin clean sheets at Colorado provide a low-confidence case for an away clean sheet.
- Austin kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 9 away matches this season.
- Colorado failed to score in 2 of 7 home matches.
- Austin's last away clean sheet was over 10 matches ago.
- H2H: Austin kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 5 meetings, both away wins.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostColorado Rapids not to scoreEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner averages, and available H2H data shows all recent meetings staying under 9.5 total corners.
- Colorado averages 4.4 corners per match over last 15, Austin averages 3.8.
- Combined average corners per match: 8.2.
- In last 5 H2H meetings with corner data (3 matches), total corners: 11, 8, 8 (all under 9.5).
- Colorado home corners average 5.0, Austin away corners average 3.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's high disciplinary record (3.1 yellows per game) and combined averages suggest a card-heavy match, with recent H2H meetings also trending over 4.5 cards.
- Colorado averages 3.1 yellow cards per match over last 15, Austin averages 1.8.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.9 per match.
- In last 5 H2H meetings with card data (3 matches), total cards: 5, 6, 4 (two over 4.5).
- Colorado has received 3+ yellow cards in 4 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65.4% leaves no cushion vs our 35% estimate; the market is heavily skewed toward goals in a fixture that historically stays under.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

L0-2Colorado RapidsvAustinJun 8, 2025MAJ

W0-1AustinvColorado RapidsMar 9, 2025MAJ

L3-2AustinvColorado RapidsOct 20, 2024MAJ

W2-0Colorado RapidsvAustinJun 16, 2024MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsvAustinOct 1, 2023MAJ

Colorado Rapids: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Colorado Rapids	17	6	1	10	26-25	19	LWLLW
14	Austin	17	4	5	8	22-35	17	LWLLL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Colorado Rapids

L0-1St. Louis CityJul 26MAJ

W1-0San DiegoJul 23MAJ

D1-1FC JuarezJul 10FRI

L1-2FC DallasMay 24MAJ

W2-0San Jose EarthquakesMay 21US

L1-2Real Salt LakeMay 17MAJ

W1-0Minnesota United FCMay 14MAJ

L0-1St. Louis CityMay 10MAJ

L0-1Houston DynamoMay 3MAJ

L1-3Vancouver WhitecapsApr 26MAJ

D0-0Los Angeles FCApr 23MAJ

L2-3Inter MiamiApr 18MAJ

W1-0Union OmahaApr 15US

W6-2Houston DynamoApr 12MAJ

L2-3Toronto FCApr 4MAJ

Austin

L0-3Houston DynamoJul 26MAJ

W3-1Seattle SoundersJul 23MAJ

W4-0Sporting JAXJul 8FRI

L0-1Club QueretaroJul 3FRI

L0-3St. Louis CityMay 23MAJ

L1-2Sporting Kansas CityMay 17MAJ

L0-5San DiegoMay 14MAJ

D2-2Minnesota United FCMay 10MAJ

W2-0St. Louis CityMay 3MAJ

W2-0Houston DynamoApr 26MAJ

L1-5San Jose EarthquakesApr 23MAJ

D3-3Toronto FCApr 18MAJ

L1-2Louisville CityApr 14US

L1-2Los Angeles GalaxyApr 11MAJ

D2-2Inter MiamiApr 4MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Colorado Rapids

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Austin

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Draw

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Colorado Rapids or Draw

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Colorado Rapids

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Colorado Rapids

Austin

Squad & Injuries

Colorado Rapids

Austin