AllsvenskanFull time

Predictions graded

AIK Stockholm0Orgryte3

HT 0–2Sun 2 Aug 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 1–7CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 08:48 · Europe/Bucharest

AIK are strong favorites against an Örgryte side with the league's leakiest away defense, but the market has squeezed value from traditional win markets.

The top actionable insight is backing Örgryte not to keep a clean sheet (No @ 1.50, edge +18pts), given their zero away shutouts and AIK's consistent home scoring. The cards over 3.5 (2.20) also offers value, while the immediate rematch next week may temper goal expectations.

Context

Örgryte away record: 1W-0D-6L, 3 goals scored, 21 conceded.
- Zero away clean sheets this season; conceded in 13 of 14 league matches overall.
- AIK have scored in 5 of 6 home league matches this season.
Round 15 at Strawberry Arena on 2 August, followed by Örgryte–AIK in Round 16 on 8 August.
- Örgryte enter the first game second-bottom, making the back-to-back set a concentrated six-point survival swing.
- Rapid tactical rematch may encourage a cautious first-leg approach from both sides.
AIK home record: 3W-0D-3L, 7 goals scored, 9 conceded.
- Home losses include a 0-3 defeat to Sirius and a 0-1 loss to Malmö.
- AIK have failed to score in two of their six home league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

AIK Stockholm or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Örgryte's away record (1W-0D-6L) and AIK's solid recent form make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

AIK Stockholm

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

AIK's mid-table stability and Örgryte's dreadful away form give the home side a clear edge, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

AIK's home defensive leaks and Örgryte's occasional away goals suggest both teams can score, but odds are tight.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AIK's mid-table stability and Örgryte's dreadful away form (conceding 3 goals per game on average) give the home side a clear edge, though AIK's own inconsistent home results temper confidence.
- AIK home record: 3W-0D-3L, 7 goals scored, 9 conceded in 6 matches
- Örgryte away record: 1W-0D-6L, 3 goals scored, 21 conceded in 7 matches
- AIK last 5 league matches: 3W-1D-1L, 8 goals scored, 5 conceded
- Örgryte last 5 league matches: 1W-1D-3L, 5 goals scored, 12 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAIK StockholmEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Örgryte's inability to secure draws on the road (0 in 7) and AIK's solid recent form make a home win or draw highly likely, with the away side's relegation struggles further supporting this outcome.
- Örgryte away record: 1 win in 7, 0 draws
- AIK home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses
- Örgryte have lost 6 of 7 away matches this season
- AIK have avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAIK Stockholm or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite AIK's low overall first-half lead rate, Örgryte's extreme vulnerability early in games (73% trailing at half-time) gives the home side a decent chance to be ahead at the break, though the low base rate keeps confidence low.
- AIK leading at half-time in 13% of matches this season
- Örgryte trailing at half-time in 73% of matches
- AIK have scored first-half goals in 3 of last 5 league matches
- Örgryte have conceded first-half goals in 12 of 14 league matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAIK StockholmEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AIK's low rate of leading at half-time and winning makes this a low-probability outcome, but Örgryte's propensity to trail early and lose away provides a plausible path.
- AIK have led at half-time and won in 2 of 14 matches this season
- Örgryte have trailed at half-time and lost in 8 of 14 matches
- AIK home record: 3 wins, all by a single goal margin
- Örgryte away record: 1 win, 6 losses, often by multiple goals
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAIK Stockholm / AIK StockholmEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Örgryte's leaky defense on the road, combined with AIK's ability to score multiple goals in recent outings, points to a match with at least three goals, though AIK's occasional low-scoring home games add some uncertainty.
- Örgryte away matches average 3.43 total goals (21 conceded + 3 scored in 7 games)
- AIK home matches average 2.67 total goals (7 scored + 9 conceded in 6 games)
- Örgryte have conceded 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 away league matches
- AIK have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AIK's defensive vulnerabilities at home and Örgryte's occasional away goal threat, coupled with the visitors' consistent concession record, suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- AIK have conceded in 5 of their last 6 home league matches
- Örgryte have scored in 4 of their last 6 away matches across all competitions
- AIK have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Örgryte have conceded in 13 of their 14 league matches this season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Örgryte's away defensive record is abysmal, with no clean sheets and an average of 3 goals conceded per game, making it highly unlikely they will shut out an AIK side that consistently scores at home.
- Örgryte have kept 0 clean sheets in 7 away league matches this season
- Örgryte have conceded 21 goals in those 7 away games
- AIK have scored in 5 of their 6 home league matches this season
- Örgryte have conceded in 13 of 14 league matches overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAIK Stockholm to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Örgryte's tendency to concede early (73% trailing at half-time) and AIK's recent improvement in first-half scoring suggest at least one goal before the break is probable.
- AIK first-half goals: 0.5 per game average, but scored in first half in 3 of last 5 league matches
- Örgryte first-half goals conceded: 1.1 per game average, conceded in first half in 12 of 14 league matches
- Örgryte have trailed at half-time in 73% of matches this season
- AIK have led at half-time in only 13% of matches, but face a weak opponent
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Örgryte's defense often crumbling after the break and AIK likely to push for goals at home, the second half could see multiple goals, though AIK's own scoring rate is not prolific.
- AIK average 0.8 second-half goals per game (1.3 total - 0.5 first half)
- Örgryte concede 1.4 second-half goals per game on average (2.5 total - 1.1 first half)
- Örgryte away matches average 3.43 total goals, with majority conceded after half-time
- AIK home matches see 2.67 total goals on average
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' match averages hover around the 10-corner mark, but AIK's home games and Örgryte's away games show variability, making this a borderline call with low confidence.
- AIK average 6.1 corners per game, concede 5.5 opponent corners per game
- Örgryte average 4.2 corners per game, concede 6.1 opponent corners per game
- Combined average corners in AIK matches: 11.6
- Combined average corners in Örgryte matches: 10.3
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
AIK's consistent card accumulation and the competitive nature of a relegation-threatened away side should push the total cards over 3.5, with the home team likely to contribute the majority.
- AIK average 2.6 yellow cards per game
- Örgryte average 1.6 yellow cards per game
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.2 per match
- AIK have received 2+ cards in 12 of 14 league matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 88% leaves no cushion vs our 80% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 0W

W2-0AIK StockholmvOrgryte ISFeb 19, 2022SVE

W0-1Orgryte ISvAIK StockholmMar 1, 2020SVE

AIK Stockholm: 2 clean sheets1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	AIK Stockholm	14	6	4	4	18-18	22	DWWWL
15	Orgryte Relegation	14	2	4	8	14-33	10	LDWLD

12pt gap between teamsOrgryte in relegation zone

Recent Form

AIK Stockholm

D0-0BK HackenJul 27ALL

W2-0GaisJul 18ALL

W2-1Mjallby AIFJul 11ALL

W2-1IFK GoteborgJul 5ALL

W3-2Vasteras SK FKJun 28FRI

L0-2Kalmar FFJun 22FRI

L0-3SiriusMay 30ALL

W2-1Hammarby FFMay 24ALL

D1-1Vasteras SK FKMay 17ALL

L2-4Djurgardens IFMay 10ALL

D1-1IF ElfsborgMay 3ALL

L0-1Malmo FFApr 27ALL

L1-2Degerfors IFApr 23ALL

W1-0Kalmar FFApr 19ALL

D2-2IF BrommapojkarnaApr 13ALL

Orgryte

L0-2Vasteras SK FKJul 24ALL

D0-0Djurgardens IFJul 20ALL

W4-3BK HackenJul 11ALL

L0-3Kalmar FFJul 5ALL

L1-4TromsoJun 25FRI

D2-2IF ElfsborgMay 29ALL

L0-2HalmstadMay 23ALL

L2-3IFK GoteborgMay 19ALL

L0-2SiriusMay 11ALL

L0-4GaisMay 3ALL

D1-1Degerfors IFApr 27ALL

L1-2IF BrommapojkarnaApr 22ALL

L1-8Hammarby FFApr 18ALL

W2-0Mjallby AIFApr 11ALL

D1-1Malmo FFApr 5ALL

Squad & Injuries

AIK Stockholm

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Orgryte

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

AIK Stockholm to score

Over 3.5

AIK Stockholm or Draw

AIK Stockholm

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

AIK Stockholm or Draw

AIK Stockholm

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

AIK Stockholm

Orgryte

Squad & Injuries

AIK Stockholm

Orgryte