FC Jarfalla0FC Stockholm Internazionale4

HT 0–2Sat 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jul 2026, 23:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Back FC Stockholm Internazionale to win at 1.70, with a +6% edge over the implied probability.

Jarfalla's double suspension crisis (Portilla confirmed, Saweris likely) weakens their defense, making over 1.5 away goals (1.57) and first-half over 1.5 goals (2.10) attractive. Avoid the -1 handicap and Jarfalla team total over 1.5 due to negative value.

Context

Anthony Portilla is suspended from 31 July to 10 August, confirmed by the Stockholm FA.
- Peter Saweris is listed on a yellow-card suspension on the match sheet, though final confirmation is pending.
- Jarfalla have conceded 1.9 goals per game on average this season.
Stockholm's away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, with 13 goals scored in 6 matches.
- Jarfalla's home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, with 13 goals conceded in 6 matches.
- Stockholm have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away league games.
Jarfalla last played on 28 June; Stockholm last played on 27 June.
- The 34-35 day gap is the longest break of the season, with no competitive fixtures in between.
- The reverse fixture follows quickly on 21 August, adding a condensed schedule element.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stockholm Internazionale's superior league position, better overall and away form, and Jarfalla's poor home record make an away win highly likely.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale are 4th with 27 points, while FC Jarfalla are 10th with 15 points after 14 matches.
- Stockholm have won 8 of 14 league matches; Jarfalla have lost 7 of 14.
- Stockholm's away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 6 matches; Jarfalla's home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in 6 matches.
- Stockholm have scored 28 goals and conceded 14; Jarfalla have scored 21 and conceded 27.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the significant gap in form and standings, Stockholm are unlikely to lose, making a double chance of draw or away win a very safe bet.
- Stockholm have lost only 3 of 14 league matches; Jarfalla have won only 4 of 14.
- Jarfalla have lost 4 of 6 home matches; Stockholm have lost only 1 of 6 away matches.
- Stockholm's goal difference is +14; Jarfalla's is -6.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stockholm's strong first-half performances and Jarfalla's vulnerability early in matches make an away halftime lead plausible.
- Stockholm have led at halftime in 7 of 14 matches (47%); Jarfalla have led in only 4 of 14 (27%).
- Stockholm have trailed at halftime only once (7%); Jarfalla have trailed 4 times (27%).
- Stockholm's first-half goal difference is +0.5 per match; Jarfalla's is 0.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Stockholm are favorites, the low probability reflects the difficulty of leading at both intervals; Jarfalla's resilience could prevent a clean sweep.
- Stockholm have led at halftime and won the match in 5 of 14 league matches.
- Jarfalla have trailed at halftime and lost the match in 3 of 14 league matches.
- Stockholm's overall win rate is 57%; Jarfalla's loss rate is 50%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableFC Stockholm Internazionale / FC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jarfalla's leaky defense combined with Stockholm's consistent scoring suggests a high-scoring match, despite Stockholm's solid defense.
- Jarfalla's matches average 3.3 total goals (1.4 scored, 1.9 conceded).
- Stockholm's matches average 2.8 total goals (1.9 scored, 0.9 conceded).
- Jarfalla have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
- Stockholm have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Jarfalla's defensive vulnerabilities make it likely both will find the net.
- Jarfalla have scored in 11 of 14 league matches; Stockholm have scored in 12 of 14.
- Jarfalla have conceded in 12 of 14 league matches; Stockholm have conceded in 8 of 14.
- Jarfalla have scored in 5 of 6 home matches; Stockholm have conceded in 4 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stockholm's defense, while solid, is not impenetrable, and Jarfalla's home scoring record suggests they will breach the away defense.
- Stockholm have kept only 4 clean sheets in 14 league matches.
- Jarfalla have failed to score in only 3 of 14 league matches.
- Jarfalla have scored in 5 of 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFC Jarfalla to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jarfalla's home scoring is modest, but Stockholm's away defense is not flawless; a slight chance exists for Jarfalla to score twice.
- Jarfalla average 1.4 goals per match overall, but 1.33 at home.
- Jarfalla have scored 2+ goals in only 2 of 6 home matches.
- Stockholm concede 1.17 goals per away match on average.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Jarfalla over 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stockholm's potent away attack against Jarfalla's weak home defense strongly suggests the visitors will score at least twice.
- Stockholm average 1.9 goals per match overall, and 2.17 goals per away match.
- Stockholm have scored 2+ goals in 5 of 6 away matches.
- Jarfalla concede 2.17 goals per home match on average.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Stockholm Internazionale over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Jarfalla's tendency for early goals and Stockholm's ability to score early could lead to a lively first half.
- Jarfalla's first-half goals average: 0.9 scored, 0.9 conceded per match.
- Stockholm's first-half goals average: 0.8 scored, 0.3 conceded per match.
- Jarfalla have seen over 1.5 first-half goals in 6 of their last 10 league matches.
- Stockholm have led at halftime in 47% of matches; Jarfalla have trailed at halftime in 27%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league averages and match context; an open game could produce a moderate number of corners.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- League average corners per match in Ettan Norra is typically around 9-10.
- Stockholm's attacking style and Jarfalla's defensive pressure could generate corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

FC Stockholm Internazionale has been highly reliable when projected to win

FC Stockholm Internazionale has fulfilled all 5 of its recent match-winner predictions. The average estimated probability in those matches was 53.8%, yet the team won every time, exceeding the expected 2.7 wins. The current prediction of 65% sits within the historical range of 42–72%, and the team has won both home and away when favoured.

Recent evidence for FC Stockholm Internazionale5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra