EliteserienFull time

Predictions graded

Valerenga0Ham-Kam3

HT 0–1Fri 31 Jul 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 12–14On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 17:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Valerenga's strong home form and HamKam's attacking disruption after selling top scorer Niang point to a home win or draw, but the market offers little value on that outcome.

The best betting angle is both teams to score 'Yes' at 1.57, which carries a small edge given both sides' consistent scoring records. Expect an open game with over 2.5 goals likely, though HamKam's counterattacking setup could keep it tighter than the stats suggest.

Context

Niang scored 6 goals in 11 Eliteserien appearances before his 21 July transfer to Porto.
- Al-Saed joined on loan from BK Häcken the same day and had only one training session as of the intel report.
- HamKam's away scoring already averaged just 1.17 goals per game; losing their main finisher reduces their threat further.
Valerenga home record: 4W-1D-2L, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded.
- HamKam away record: 0W-3D-3L, 7 goals scored, 14 conceded.
- Valerenga scored 2+ goals in five of seven home games; HamKam conceded 2+ in five of six away games.
Last three league H2H: HamKam 2W-1D-0L, with a 1-0 home win on 8 May 2026.
- Valerenga's last home league H2H vs HamKam: 2-0 win on 26 November 2023.
- The 2024 cup meeting ended 6-5 to Valerenga, showing matches can be high-scoring.
Valerenga's official website promotes the match as the club's 113th birthday celebration.
- Only two points separate the sides, but neither is in immediate title or relegation danger.
- The occasion could lift home performance, but the effect is intangible.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Valerenga or Draw

1.21fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Valerenga's strong home form (4W-1D-2L) and Ham-Kam's winless away record (0W-3D-3L) make a home win or draw highly probable, with Ham-Kam's loss of top scorer Niang further reducing their threat.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high-scoring trends in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have often been open, supporting a high total goals expectation.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's strong home form and Ham-Kam's poor away record, combined with the disruption of losing their main goal threat, give the hosts a clear edge despite Ham-Kam's recent H2H success.
- Valerenga home record: 4W-1D-2L, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded in 7 matches.
- Ham-Kam away record: 0W-3D-3L, 7 goals scored, 14 conceded in 6 matches.
- Valerenga last 5 home league matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 13 goals.
- Ham-Kam sold top scorer Niang (6 goals in 11 apps) on 21 July; replacement Al-Saed still integrating.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostValerengaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's solid home form and Ham-Kam's winless away record make a home win or draw highly likely, with Ham-Kam's attacking disruption further reducing their chance of an away victory.
- Valerenga home record: 4W-1D-2L, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded in 7 matches.
- Ham-Kam away record: 0W-3D-3L, 7 goals scored, 14 conceded in 6 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Ham-Kam unbeaten in last 3 league meetings, but overall balanced (3 Valerenga wins, 2 Ham-Kam, 3 draws in 8).
- Valerenga lost only 2 of 7 home games this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostValerenga or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's strong first-half home performances contrast with Ham-Kam's poor first-half away record, suggesting a home lead at the break is plausible, though not highly probable given the overall match uncertainty.
- Valerenga led at half-time in 4 of 7 home matches (57%).
- Ham-Kam trailed at half-time in 4 of 6 away matches (67%).
- Valerenga scored first-half goals in 5 of 7 home matches.
- Ham-Kam conceded first-half goals in 5 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostValerengaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's ability to score after the break at home and Ham-Kam's tendency to concede late on the road give the hosts a slight edge in the second half, though the data is not conclusive.
- Valerenga won the second half in 3 of 7 home matches (43%).
- Ham-Kam lost the second half in 3 of 6 away matches (50%).
- Valerenga scored second-half goals in 5 of 7 home matches.
- Ham-Kam conceded second-half goals in 5 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableValerengaEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring trends in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have often been open, supporting a high total goals expectation.
- Valerenga home matches average 3.43 total goals (15 scored, 9 conceded in 7 games).
- Ham-Kam away matches average 3.5 total goals (7 scored, 14 conceded in 6 games).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals, including a 6-5 cup result.
- Valerenga last 5 home league matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in their respective home/away fixtures, and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends, making BTTS a strong probability.
- Valerenga scored in 6 of 7 home matches this season.
- Ham-Kam scored in 5 of 6 away matches this season.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.
- Valerenga conceded in 5 of 7 home matches; Ham-Kam conceded in all 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's strong home scoring record against a Ham-Kam defense that leaks goals on the road suggests the hosts are likely to score at least twice.
- Valerenga scored 2+ goals in 5 of 7 home matches this season.
- Valerenga average 2.14 goals per home game.
- Ham-Kam conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 6 away matches.
- Valerenga scored 2+ in 3 of last 5 home league matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostValerenga over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's away scoring struggles and the loss of their main striker make it unlikely they will score more than once, especially against a decent home defense.
- Ham-Kam scored 1 or fewer goals in 4 of 6 away matches.
- Ham-Kam average 1.17 goals per away game.
- Ham-Kam sold top scorer Niang (6 goals in 11 apps) on 21 July; replacement Al-Saed still integrating.
- Valerenga kept 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches, conceding 1.29 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostHam-Kam under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's tendency to start fast at home and Ham-Kam's vulnerability early in away games create a reasonable chance for multiple first-half goals, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Valerenga home first-half goals: 1.0 average, with 4 of 7 home matches having over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Ham-Kam away first-half goals conceded: 0.8 average, but 3 of 6 away matches had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Valerenga scored in the first half in 5 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a pattern of second-half goals in their respective home/away splits, and the H2H history supports a lively second period, though confidence is tempered by Ham-Kam's attacking changes.
- Valerenga home second-half goals: 1.14 average, with 4 of 7 home matches having over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Ham-Kam away second-half goals conceded: 1.33 average, with 4 of 6 away matches having over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Valerenga scored in the second half in 5 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Valerenga's high corner count at home and Ham-Kam's tendency to concede corners on the road, combined with historical H2H corner totals, suggest a decent chance of a high corner count, though Ham-Kam's low corner numbers add uncertainty.
- Valerenga home corners: 7.4 average, with 5 of 7 home matches having over 9.5 total corners.
- Ham-Kam away corners: 3.8 average, but opponents average 6.3 corners against them away.
- Last 5 H2H: corner data available for 3 matches, all had over 9.5 corners (10, 11, 12).
- Valerenga's last 5 home league matches averaged 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this mid-table clash and historical card trends suggest a moderate likelihood of exceeding 3.5 cards, though the data is not strong enough for higher confidence.
- Valerenga home yellow cards: 2.2 average, with 4 of 7 home matches having over 3.5 total cards.
- Ham-Kam away yellow cards: 1.2 average, but opponents average 1.8 cards against them away.
- Last 5 H2H: card data limited, but the most recent league meeting (May 2026) had 4 cards.
- Valerenga's last 5 home league matches averaged 3.8 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L1-0Ham-KamvValerengaMay 8, 2026ELI

L2-1Ham-KamvValerengaOct 19, 2025ELI

D1-1ValerengavHam-KamMay 16, 2025ELI

D2-2ValerengavHam-KamMay 8, 2024NM

W0-2Ham-KamvValerengaNov 26, 2023ELI

2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Valerenga	13	5	2	6	19-22	17	WLWLW
8	Ham-Kam	13	5	3	5	20-25	18	LLDDW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Valerenga

W6-1AalesundJul 16ELI

L0-4TromsoJul 11ELI

W3-1FredrikstadJul 4FRI

L1-2GaisJun 27FRI

D1-1IFK GoteborgJun 18FRI

W3-1Kristiansund BKMay 29ELI

L0-2StartMay 25ELI

W3-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMay 16ELI

L0-1Ham-KamMay 8ELI

D2-2KFUM OsloMay 3ELI

L1-5MoldeApr 26ELI

L0-2LillestromApr 19ELI

D1-1FredrikstadApr 12ELI

L0-1VikingApr 6ELI

D3-3IFK GoteborgMar 27FRI

Ham-Kam

L0-3Bodo/GlimtJul 22ELI

L1-4TromsoJul 18ELI

D2-2SandefjordJul 12ELI

W2-1IFK GoteborgJun 27FRI

D1-1FredrikstadJun 20FRI

D2-2AalesundMay 29ELI

W2-0LillestromMay 25ELI

L1-2FredrikstadMay 16ELI

W1-0ValerengaMay 8ELI

D1-1Kristiansund BKMay 3ELI

W2-1StartApr 26ELI

W4-0KFUM OsloApr 19ELI

L1-4MoldeApr 12ELI

L1-5BrannApr 6ELI

D2-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMar 26FRI

Squad & Injuries

Valerenga

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Ham-Kam

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Valerenga or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Valerenga

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Valerenga

Ham-Kam

Squad & Injuries

Valerenga

Ham-Kam