Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Fluminense RJ0Bahia0

HT 0–0Thu 30 Jul 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 24–10On targetOn target 11–0CornersCorners 8–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 07:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Fluminense’s overwhelming home H2H dominance (six straight league wins, one goal conceded) and strong current form make them clear favorites.

The best value lies in the home win at 1.75 (8-point edge) and the HT/FT Fluminense/Fluminense at 2.80 (9-point edge), while the under 2.5 goals at 1.88 also offers a solid 6.8-point edge given the fixture’s low-scoring history.

Context

Last six home league H2Hs: 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 2-0 for Fluminense.
- Bahia scored only once in those six visits.
- Fluminense kept four clean sheets in that span.
On 26 Jun 2026, Bahia stated the break helped them reset and they aimed to climb the table.
- They played friendlies against Montevideo City Torque and Fluminense during the break.
- The friendly against Fluminense on 12 Jul ended 2-0 to the hosts.
On 11 Jul 2026, Kike Olivera, Iago Borduchi, and Luciano Juba were in physical/technical transition.
- Marco Moreno was doing individual gym work, and Leo Vieira remained in treatment.
- New goalkeeper Guido Herrera trained fully but may lack match rhythm with the team.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's historical home dominance over Bahia (6 straight league wins, 1 goal conceded) combined with strong current home form (7-2-1) makes them clear favorites, while Bahia's away fragility (3 losses in last 5 away) and the recent friendly result confirm the edge.
- Fluminense won last 6 home league H2Hs vs Bahia, conceding only 1 goal total across those 6 matches.
- Fluminense home record this season: 7W-2D-1L (18GF, 11GA in 10 matches).
- Bahia away record: 4W-2D-3L (12GF, 14GA in 9 matches), with 3 losses in last 5 away league games.
- Recent friendly (12 Jul 2026): Fluminense 2-0 Bahia at Maracana, reinforcing home dominance.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFluminense RJEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's near-perfect home record (only 1 loss) and Bahia's historical struggles at this venue (no league win since 2017) make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Fluminense lost only 1 home league match this season (10 played).
- Bahia won only 4 of 9 away matches, with 5 draws/losses.
- H2H at Fluminense: Bahia last won a league match at Fluminense in 2017; since then Fluminense unbeaten in 6 home league H2Hs.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFluminense RJ or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's tendency to start strong at home (leading at HT in 50% of home games) and Bahia's poor first-half record away (trailing in 5 of 9) point to a home lead at the break.
- Fluminense led at halftime in 40% of last 15 matches overall; at home, they led at HT in 5 of last 10.
- Bahia trailed at halftime in 47% of last 15 matches; away, they trailed at HT in 5 of last 9.
- In the recent friendly, Fluminense led 1-0 at halftime.
- Fluminense scored first-half goals in 7 of last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFluminense RJEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's pattern of leading at halftime and winning at home, especially against Bahia (4 of last 6 H2Hs), supports a HT/FT double, though Bahia's occasional resilience tempers confidence.
- Fluminense led at HT in 5 of 10 home matches and won 7 of those 10.
- In 4 of the last 6 home league H2Hs, Fluminense led at HT and won the match.
- Bahia lost 3 of 9 away matches, and in those losses they trailed at HT in 2.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableFluminense RJ / Fluminense RJEstimated chance45%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern at Fluminense's ground consistently produces low-scoring affairs (all last 6 under 2.5), and both teams' recent home/away splits show a tendency for unders, supporting a repeat.
- Last 6 home league H2Hs: all ended with 2 or fewer total goals (2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 2-0).
- Fluminense home matches average 2.9 total goals, but 6 of 10 had under 2.5 goals.
- Bahia away matches average 2.89 total goals, but 5 of 9 had under 2.5 goals.
- Fluminense's last 5 home matches: 3 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's historical scoring drought at Fluminense (1 goal in 6 visits) and Fluminense's ability to keep clean sheets in this fixture suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Bahia scored only 1 goal in last 6 away league H2Hs vs Fluminense.
- Fluminense kept 4 clean sheets in last 6 home league H2Hs.
- Fluminense home clean sheet rate: 30% (3 of 10), but against weaker attacks they often shut out.
- Bahia failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's strong defensive record in this specific fixture (4 clean sheets in 6) and Bahia's inconsistent away scoring make a home clean sheet a solid probability.
- Fluminense kept clean sheets in 4 of last 6 home league H2Hs vs Bahia.
- Fluminense home clean sheets this season: 3 in 10 matches (30%).
- Bahia failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches, and only scored 12 in 9 away games overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBahia not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the H2H history at this venue shows tight first halves, making under 1.5 goals likely before the break.
- Fluminense home first-half goals: 0.7 per game average; conceded 0.5 per game.
- Bahia away first-half goals: 0.5 per game average; conceded 0.8 per game.
- Last 6 home league H2Hs: only 1 had over 1.5 first-half goals (2-1 scoreline, but first half was 1-0).
- Fluminense's last 5 home matches: 4 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's away matches consistently produce high corner counts (average 12.8 total), and recent H2Hs have trended over 9.5, though Fluminense's lower home corner numbers introduce some risk.
- Fluminense home corners average: 4.2 per game; opponent corners: 3.5 per game -> total ~7.7.
- Bahia away corners average: 7.0 per game; opponent corners: 5.8 per game -> total ~12.8.
- Last 5 H2Hs (all venues): corner totals were 15, 11, 9, 10, 8 (average 10.6).
- Bahia's last 5 away matches: corner totals of 16, 9, 15, 14, 12 (average 13.2).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 cards combined in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2Hs have seen similar totals, suggesting a slight lean toward over 4.5 cards.
- Fluminense home yellow cards average: 2.8 per game; opponent: 2.5 -> total ~5.3.
- Bahia away yellow cards average: 2.6 per game; opponent: 2.4 -> total ~5.0.
- Last 5 H2Hs: card totals of 6, 4, 5, 7, 3 (average 5.0).
- Referee Raphael Claus averages 5.1 cards per match in Serie A 2026.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L2-0FluminensevBahiaJul 12, 2026FRI

D1-1BahiavFluminenseFeb 5, 2026SA

L2-0FluminensevBahiaDec 7, 2025SA

L2-0FluminensevBahiaSep 10, 2025COP

L1-0BahiavFluminenseAug 28, 2025COP

Bahia unbeaten in 5 meetingsBahia: 4 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Fluminense RJ Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	19	9	5	5	29-24	32	DDLWD
6	Bahia Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	19	8	6	5	28-24	30	DWWLD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Fluminense RJ

D1-1RB BragantinoJul 17SA

W2-0BahiaJul 12FRI

W6-1Nova IguaçuJul 8FRI

D1-1CruzeiroMay 31SA

W3-1Deportivo La GuairaMay 28CON

L0-1MirassolMay 23SA

W2-1BolívarMay 19CON

W2-1Sao PauloMay 16SA

W2-1Operario-PRMay 13COP

D2-2VitoriaMay 9SA

D1-1Independ. RivadaviaMay 7CON

L0-2InternacionalMay 3SA

L0-2BolívarApr 30CON

W2-1Chapecoense-scApr 26SA

D0-0Operario-PRApr 24COP

Bahia

D1-1Atletico-MGJul 21SA

W2-0Chapecoense-scJul 17SA

L0-2FluminenseJul 12FRI

W4-1Atletico TorqueJul 4FRI

W2-1BotafogoMay 30SA

L2-3CoritibaMay 25SA

D1-1GremioMay 17SA

L1-2RemoMay 14COP

L1-2CruzeiroMay 10SA

D2-2Sao PauloMay 3SA

D2-2SantosApr 25SA

L1-3RemoApr 22COP

L0-2FlamengoApr 19SA

W2-1MirassolApr 11SA

L1-2PalmeirasApr 5SA

Squad & Injuries

Fluminense RJ

43 available

Attackers10

Midfielders14

Defenders14

Goalkeeper5

Bahia

45 available

Attackers13

Midfielders13

Defenders13

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Fluminense RJ

Fluminense RJ or Draw

Fluminense RJ at half-time / Fluminense RJ at full-time

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Fluminense RJ

Bahia

Squad & Injuries

Fluminense RJ

Bahia