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Predictions graded

Mirassol2Remo PA1

HT 1–1Wed 29 Jul 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 8–13On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 11:00 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation six-pointer where Mirassol's post-break reset meets Remo's unbeaten H2H record, likely producing a tight, low-scoring draw.

The only clear betting edge is over 4.5 cards at 2.00, backed by high-stakes context and Mirassol's disciplinary record; avoid the home win at short odds due to poor value.

Context

On 16 Jul, Mirassol confirmed the 32-day break was the longest training period for Guanaes since his arrival.
- Five mid-year reinforcements were integrated during the pause, potentially changing the team's quality and cohesion.
- The club's official site stressed preparation for Série A, Copa do Brasil, and Libertadores, indicating a refreshed squad.
Remo's official site announced the signing of Zé Ivaldo on 20 Jul.
- The club's squad page lists him in the first-team group, making him available for selection.
- Remo have conceded 21 goals in 10 away matches, so a new centre-back could address a clear weakness.
04 Feb 2026: Remo 2-2 Mirassol (Remo led 2-0).
- 15 May 2022: Remo 3-1 Mirassol.
- Both matches were at Remo's home, but the pattern of Remo scoring first and avoiding defeat is notable.
Mirassol's official schedule shows Remo on 29 Jul and Grêmio on 2 Aug.
- The club's 16 Jul note highlighted preparation for three competitions, acknowledging the busy period.
- No rotation plan has been stated, but the short rest between matches is a risk for a team fighting relegation.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mirassol or Draw

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Mirassol's solid home form (70% points earned) and Remo's poor away record (8 points from 10 games) make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half Resultnot gradableUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.08fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 48%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at halftime, and the cautious nature of a relegation six-pointer reinforces a stalemate at the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's home advantage and recent squad improvements give them a slight edge, but Remo's unbeaten H2H record tempers confidence.
- Mirassol home record: 4W-3D-3L, 13 goals scored, 12 conceded in 10 home matches this season.
- Remo away record: 2W-2D-6L, 10 goals scored, 21 conceded in 10 away matches.
- Mirassol had a 32-day training block with five new signings integrated, potentially improving pre-pause form.
- Remo have never lost to Mirassol in H2H (1W-1D), but both matches were at Remo's home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirassolEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's solid home form and Remo's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Mirassol home record: 70% of points earned at home (15/19 points).
- Remo away record: only 8 points from 10 away games, with 6 losses.
- Mirassol have lost only 3 of 10 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at halftime, and the cautious nature of a relegation six-pointer reinforces a stalemate at the break.
- Mirassol led at halftime in 40% of matches, trailed in 13%, and drew in 47%.
- Remo led at halftime in only 7% of matches, trailed in 20%, and drew in 73%.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's home form and potential fitness advantage may allow them to edge the second half, but Remo's resilience makes this uncertain.
- Mirassol have won the second half in 4 of their last 10 home matches.
- Remo have lost the second half in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
- Mirassol's home advantage and fresh legs from the break could give them a late edge.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableMirassolEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Mirassol win is a plausible scenario given their home strength and Remo's second-half struggles, but the probability is low.
- Mirassol have drawn at halftime in 47% of matches and won 28% overall.
- Remo have drawn at halftime in 73% of matches but lost 47% overall.
- Mirassol's home record shows they often improve after halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / MirassolEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and the high-stakes relegation battle often leads to cautious play, favoring under 2.5 goals.
- Mirassol home matches average 2.5 total goals (13 scored, 12 conceded in 10 games).
- Remo away matches average 3.1 total goals, but 7 of 10 away games had under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams average around 1.2-1.3 goals per game overall, with low scoring in recent form.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest both will find the net.
- Mirassol have scored in 8 of 10 home matches this season.
- Remo have scored in 7 of 10 away matches, but also conceded in 9 of 10.
- H2H: both meetings saw both teams score (3-1 and 2-2).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 goals likely.
- Mirassol first half goals: 0.8 per game, first half conceded: 0.4 per game.
- Remo first half goals: 0.7 per game, first half conceded: 0.9 per game.
- In Mirassol's last 5 matches, only 2 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matches between relegation-threatened sides often open up in the second half as urgency increases, though evidence is not strong.
- Mirassol average 1.2 goals per game overall, with many goals coming in the second half.
- Remo concede 1.3 goals per game, often after halftime.
- In H2H, 4 of 5 goals in the last meeting came in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the tense nature of the match may limit attacking width, keeping total corners under 9.5.
- Mirassol average 3.9 corners per game, conceding 5.5 opponent corners.
- Remo average 4.4 corners per game, conceding 6.3 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in Mirassol home games: 8.4; in Remo away games: 10.7, but recent form shows lower numbers.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high-pressure context of a relegation battle is likely to lead to more fouls and cards, pushing the total over 4.5.
- Mirassol average 2.6 yellow cards per game, with 1 red card in last 15.
- Remo average 1.2 yellow cards per game, but in away matches, discipline worsens.
- Relegation six-pointers often see increased fouls and cards due to high stakes.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

D2-2RemovMirassolFeb 4, 2026SA

L3-1RemovMirassolMay 15, 2022SER

4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Mirassol Relegation - Serie B	18	5	4	9	20-25	19	WLWLD
19	Remo PA Relegation - Serie B	19	4	6	9	21-32	18	LWLWD

1pt gap between teamsMirassol in relegation zoneRemo PA in relegation zone

Recent Form

Mirassol

W2-1GremioJul 17SA

L0-1Atletico ParanaenseMay 30SA

L0-1LanusMay 26CON

W1-0FluminenseMay 23SA

W2-1Always ReadyMay 20CON

L1-3Atletico-MGMay 16SA

W2-1RB BragantinoMay 13COP

D1-1Chapecoense-scMay 10SA

W2-0LDU de QuitoMay 7CON

W2-1CorinthiansMay 3SA

W2-0Always ReadyApr 29CON

L0-1Sao PauloApr 26SA

D1-1RB BragantinoApr 23COP

W2-1InternacionalApr 19SA

L0-2LDU de QuitoApr 15CON

Remo PA

L0-3CorinthiansJul 23SA

W1-0Sao PauloMay 31SA

L1-2Atletico ParanaenseMay 24SA

W3-2Chapecoense-scMay 17SA

W2-1BahiaMay 14COP

D1-1PalmeirasMay 10SA

W2-1BotafogoMay 2SA

W2-1GalvezApr 29COP

L0-1CruzeiroApr 25SA

W3-1BahiaApr 22COP

L2-4RB BragantinoApr 19SA

L1-2Águia de MarabáApr 15COP

D1-1Vasco DA GamaApr 11SA

W1-0AmazonasApr 8COP

D0-0GremioApr 5SA

Squad & Injuries

Mirassol

37 available

Attackers12

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Remo PA

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 4.5

Mirassol or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Mirassol

Yes

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mirassol

Remo PA

Squad & Injuries

Mirassol

Remo PA