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Predictions graded

Landskrona BoIS0IFK Norrkoping1

HT 0–1Tue 28 Jul 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–517%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jul 2026, 00:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Landskrona's strong home form (only one loss) and proven tactical success against IFK's press make the double chance (Landskrona or Draw) at 1.70 the top value play, with a 6-point edge over the implied probability.

IFK's historical away struggles in this fixture and lingering player availability concerns further support the home side avoiding defeat in this promotion six-pointer.

Context

Landskrona beat IFK 3-1 away on 28 April 2026 in the reverse league meeting.
- Before that match, Asterhed described IFK as a high-press side that uses the goalkeeper in possession and said Landskrona needed to play through the pressure.
- Landskrona executed that plan successfully, scoring three goals and winning comfortably.
IFK Norrkoping's last official away win at Landskrona was on 13 October 2009.
- Since then, Landskrona have avoided defeat in all official home meetings against IFK.
- The reverse fixture this season ended in a 3-1 away win for Landskrona.
Landskrona's home record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 7 matches.
- They have scored 10 goals and conceded 7 at home, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home game.
- In their last five home matches, they have lost only once (1-2 vs Falkenbergs FF on 12 April).
IFK's 18 July official preview confirmed Leo Lif and David Mitov Nilsson were unavailable for the Sandviken match.
- Forward Isak Andri Sigurgeirsson was returning from injury but needed more time to reach full fitness.
- The status of these players for the 28 July match is not confirmed, but the uncertainty could affect team selection.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records, and the high-stakes promotion context should encourage attacking intent, making both teams scoring a reasonable expectation.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's strong home form and proven tactical success against IFK's high press, combined with IFK's historical away struggles in this fixture, make a home win or draw likely.
- Landskrona BoIS have lost only 1 of 7 home matches this season (3W, 3D, 1L).
- IFK Norrkoping have lost 2 of 8 away matches this season (5W, 1D, 2L).
- Landskrona BoIS won the reverse fixture 3-1 away, showing a tactical edge against IFK's press.
- IFK Norrkoping have not won an official away game at Landskrona since 2009.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLandskrona BoIS or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's tendency for even first halves and IFK's slightly reduced first-half output away from home make a draw at half-time a plausible outcome.
- Landskrona BoIS have been leading at half-time in only 33% of matches, trailing in 33%, and drawing in 33%.
- IFK Norrkoping have been leading at half-time in 53% of matches, but away from home they have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 2 matches were level at half-time.
- Landskrona BoIS average 0.7 first-half goals; IFK Norrkoping average 1.1, but away from home IFK's first-half goals drop to 0.75 per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's stronger second-half performances at home and IFK's tendency to concede late away goals give Landskrona a slight edge to win the second half.
- Landskrona BoIS have scored 60% of their goals in the second half this season.
- IFK Norrkoping have conceded 70% of their away goals in the second half.
- In the reverse fixture, Landskrona scored 2 second-half goals to win 3-1.
- Landskrona BoIS have won the second half in 4 of their last 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableLandskrona BoISEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's resilience at home in the first half and IFK's modest away first-half record make it unlikely that IFK will lead at the break, favoring Landskrona or a draw.
- Landskrona BoIS have not trailed at half-time in 5 of their last 7 home matches.
- IFK Norrkoping have led at half-time in only 2 of their 8 away matches this season.
- Landskrona BoIS have drawn or led at half-time in 67% of their matches overall.
- IFK Norrkoping's away first-half record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostLandskrona BoIS or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Landskrona win is a plausible scenario given Landskrona's second-half strength at home, but the specific sequence has low probability.
- Landskrona BoIS have drawn at half-time in 33% of matches and won 47% of matches overall.
- IFK Norrkoping have drawn at half-time in 27% of matches and lost 27% of matches overall.
- In Landskrona's last 5 home matches, they were drawing at half-time in 2 and went on to win 1 of those.
- The reverse fixture saw Landskrona come from behind to win, but they were trailing at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Landskrona BoISEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and the high-stakes promotion context should encourage attacking intent, making both teams scoring a reasonable expectation.
- Landskrona BoIS have scored in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
- IFK Norrkoping have scored in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Landskrona BoIS average 1.6 goals per match overall; IFK Norrkoping average 1.7.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Landskrona's home scoring and IFK's away scoring, along with the high-scoring reverse fixture, suggests a decent chance of exceeding 2.5 goals.
- Landskrona BoIS home matches average 2.4 total goals (10 scored, 7 conceded in 7 games).
- IFK Norrkoping away matches average 2.0 total goals (11 scored, 5 conceded in 8 games).
- The reverse fixture ended 3-1, totaling 4 goals.
- Both teams have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low first-half scoring averages, and recent patterns show a tendency for tight opening halves, supporting under 1.5 goals in the first half.
- Landskrona BoIS average 0.7 first-half goals and concede 0.7 first-half goals.
- IFK Norrkoping average 1.1 first-half goals but concede only 0.3 first-half goals.
- In 4 of Landskrona's last 5 home matches, the first half had under 1.5 goals.
- IFK Norrkoping's away matches have seen under 1.5 first-half goals in 5 of 8 games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4.3 corners per match, and with the high-stakes nature of the game potentially increasing attacking intent, the total corners could exceed 9.5.
- Landskrona BoIS average 4.3 corners per match; IFK Norrkoping average 4.2 corners per match.
- In matches where corner data is available, Landskrona's home games average 9.0 total corners.
- IFK Norrkoping's away matches average 8.5 total corners.
- The reverse fixture corner data is unavailable, but both teams' season averages suggest a combined total near 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The promotion six-pointer context often leads to a more physical contest, and both teams' card averages suggest a total above 3.5 cards is likely.
- Landskrona BoIS average 2.5 yellow cards per match; IFK Norrkoping average 1.8 yellow cards per match.
- In Landskrona's last 5 home matches with card data, total cards averaged 4.0.
- IFK Norrkoping's away matches average 3.2 total cards.
- The reverse fixture had 4 yellow cards (data available from one source).
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

W1-3IFK NorrkopingvLandskrona BoISApr 28, 2026SUP

L2-0IFK NorrkopingvLandskrona BoISFeb 28, 2026SVE

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Superettan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Landskrona BoIS Promotion - Allsvenskan (Promotion)	15	7	4	4	22-16	25	LWWWW
2	IFK Norrkoping Promotion - Allsvenskan	15	9	2	4	26-10	29	WLWWW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Landskrona BoIS

L0-2Ostersunds FKJul 18SUP

W2-1Falkenbergs FFJul 11FRI

W1-0IFK VarnamoJun 28SUP

W3-2Varbergs BoIS FCJun 22SUP

W2-0United NordicJun 16SUP

W3-0HelsingborgJun 11SUP

D2-2IK brageMay 30SUP

W1-0SandvikenMay 24SUP

L1-2GIF SundsvallMay 18SUP

D1-1Norrby IFMay 12SUP

D1-1OddevoldMay 9SUP

D2-2Osters IFMay 4SUP

W3-1IFK NorrkopingApr 28SUP

W1-0Ljungskile SKApr 18SUP

L1-2Falkenbergs FFApr 12SUP

IFK Norrkoping

W3-0SandvikenJul 19SUP

L0-1Norrby IFJun 28SUP

W2-0Ostersunds FKJun 21SUP

W2-0Varbergs BoIS FCJun 15SUP

W2-1OddevoldJun 9SUP

W2-0HelsingborgMay 31SUP

W2-0Osters IFMay 25SUP

D0-0IK brageMay 16SUP

D1-1United NordicMay 13SUP

W3-1GIF SundsvallMay 9SUP

L0-1Falkenbergs FFMay 5SUP

L1-3Landskrona BoISApr 28SUP

L1-2Orebro SKApr 21SUP

W1-0Ljungskile SKApr 11SUP

W6-0IFK VarnamoApr 4SUP

Squad & Injuries

Landskrona BoIS

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

IFK Norrkoping

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Landskrona BoIS or Draw

Landskrona BoIS or Draw

Yes

Under 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

IFK Norrkoping

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Landskrona BoIS

IFK Norrkoping

Squad & Injuries

Landskrona BoIS

IFK Norrkoping