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Predictions graded

Heart of Midlothian0Sturm Graz2

HT 0–0Tue 28 Jul 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 15–17On targetOn target 4–9CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jul 2026, 17:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Hearts' 4-0 deficit and squad upheaval force an early onslaught, making Over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.15 a strong value bet.

Sturm Graz's game-management edge and Hearts' instability make Draw or Sturm Graz at 2.00 the top outright play, with a 20-point edge over the market. Avoid Hearts to win or handicap markets, as the odds ignore the tie's reality.

Context

Derek McInnes left for Rangers on 17 June 2026.
- Wouter Vrancken was appointed on 25 June 2026, just over a month before this match.
- The short preparation period limits tactical cohesion and familiarity.
Shankland's exit was confirmed on 26 May 2026.
- On 20 July 2026, Hearts added Amadou Ba-Sy and removed Rogers Mato from the UEFA list.
- The squad churn suggests the attacking hierarchy is still unsettled.
Sturm Graz won the first leg 4-0 on 21 July 2026.
- The aggregate lead allows a game-management approach rather than an attacking one.
- Hearts must chase the tie, leaving space for Sturm Graz counters.
The opener came from a long throw, the second from a corner, and the fourth from another wide delivery.
- Hearts conceded repeatedly from aerial situations.
- This pattern could repeat if Hearts push forward and leave space at the back.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sturm Graz's tactical edge from the first leg and Hearts' transitional phase under a new coach give the visitors a slight advantage, though the away context and Hearts' home urgency add uncertainty.
- Sturm Graz won the first leg 4-0, showing clear superiority in set-pieces and box deliveries.
- Hearts have a new head coach (Wouter Vrancken, appointed 25 June 2026) and lost key striker Lawrence Shankland, indicating squad instability.
- Hearts' last 5 competitive matches: W2 D1 L2; Sturm Graz's last 5 competitive matches: W3 D2 L0.
- Sturm Graz's away form in last 5 competitive matches: W2 D2 L1, with only one loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSturm GrazEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' instability and Sturm Graz's strong form make a home win unlikely, supporting a double chance for the visitors.
- Hearts' home win rate in last 15: 60% (6 wins in 10 home matches), but only 2 wins in last 5 competitive home matches.
- Sturm Graz avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 competitive matches (W5 D3 L2).
- First leg dominance (4-0) and Hearts' coaching/squad upheaval reduce likelihood of a Hearts win.
- Hearts' last 5 matches: W2 D1 L2; Sturm Graz's last 5: W3 D2 L0.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Sturm GrazEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts' early push may be balanced by Sturm Graz's game management, leading to a stalemate at the break.
- Hearts' last 15 matches: led at half-time in 33%, trailed in 33%, drawn in 33%.
- Sturm Graz's last 15 matches: led at half-time in 47%, trailed in 13%, drawn in 40%.
- Hearts' home matches: led at half-time in 40%, drawn in 40%, trailed in 20%.
- First leg: Sturm Graz led 1-0 at half-time, but away from home, they may adopt a more cautious approach.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Sturm Graz's quality prevailing in the second half is a plausible scenario given the aggregate scoreline.
- Hearts' last 15 matches: HT draw and FT win in 13% (2/15), HT draw and FT loss in 13% (2/15).
- Sturm Graz's last 15 matches: HT draw and FT win in 20% (3/15), HT draw and FT draw in 13% (2/15).
- First leg: Sturm Graz led at HT and won FT.
- Hearts' home matches: HT draw and FT win in 20% (2/10), HT draw and FT loss in 10% (1/10).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Sturm GrazEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' need to overturn a 4-0 deficit forces early aggression, while Sturm Graz can exploit counterattacks, making a high-scoring game likely.
- Hearts' last 15 matches average 2.7 total goals (1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded); last 5 matches average 3.4 total goals.
- Sturm Graz's last 15 matches average 3.4 total goals (2.3 scored, 1.1 conceded); last 5 competitive matches average 3.0 total goals.
- First leg ended 4-0, and Hearts must chase the tie, likely leading to an open game.
- Hearts' home matches in the last 15 averaged 2.6 total goals, but with a must-score context, higher tempo is expected.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' home scoring consistency and Sturm Graz's occasional defensive lapses, combined with the hosts' must-score situation, make both teams scoring probable.
- Hearts scored in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%), including 8 of last 10 competitive home matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 7 of their last 10 competitive matches, but scored in 9 of those 10.
- Hearts' defensive record shows only 3 clean sheets in last 15, while Sturm Graz kept 4 clean sheets in last 15 but only 1 in last 5 competitive away matches.
- First leg saw Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet, but Hearts' home form and desperation suggest they will score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' desperation to score early, combined with both teams' tendency for first-half goals, points to an active opening 45 minutes.
- Hearts' last 15 matches: first-half goals average 1.3 (0.7 scored, 0.6 conceded); last 5 matches: 1.6 first-half goals average.
- Sturm Graz's last 15 matches: first-half goals average 1.4 (0.9 scored, 0.5 conceded); last 5 competitive matches: 1.4 first-half goals average.
- Hearts' home matches in last 15: 1.3 first-half goals average, but with must-score pressure, early intensity is expected.
- First leg had 1 first-half goal, but Hearts' need to attack from the start should increase early goal probability.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
As the match progresses and Hearts take more risks, the second half is likely to see increased goalmouth action.
- Hearts' last 15 matches: second-half goals average 1.4; last 5 matches: 1.8 second-half goals average.
- Sturm Graz's last 15 matches: second-half goals average 2.0; last 5 competitive matches: 1.6 second-half goals average.
- Hearts' home matches: 1.3 second-half goals average, but chasing the tie could lead to more goals late.
- First leg had 3 second-half goals, indicating Sturm Graz's ability to score after the break.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' playing styles generate corners, and Hearts' attacking urgency should sustain a high corner count.
- Hearts' last 15 matches average 6.8 corners for, 4.5 against, total 11.3 corners per match.
- Sturm Graz's last 15 matches average 6.1 corners for, 5.1 against, total 11.2 corners per match.
- First leg: total corners were 16 (Sturm Graz 4, Hearts 12), showing high corner count despite one-sided scoreline.
- Hearts' home matches average 6.4 corners for, 4.6 against, total 11.0 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pressure on Hearts and the competitive nature of a European tie may push the card count above the average.
- Hearts' last 15 matches average 2.0 yellow cards, 0.7 red cards; total cards average 2.7.
- Sturm Graz's last 15 matches average 2.5 yellow cards, 0.0 red cards; total cards average 2.5.
- First leg: total cards were 3 (Sturm Graz 1 yellow, Hearts 2 yellows).
- High-stakes qualifier with Hearts chasing could lead to more fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L4-0Sturm GrazvHeart Of MidlothianJul 21, 2026UEF

4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Heart of Midlothian

L0-4Sturm GrazJul 21UEF

W2-1Rayo VallecanoJul 17FRI

W2-1ArbroathJul 14FRI

L1-2LivingstonJul 10FRI

L1-3CelticMay 16PRE

W3-0FalkirkMay 13PRE

D1-1MotherwellMay 9PRE

W2-1RangersMay 4PRE

W2-1HibernianApr 26PRE

W3-1MotherwellApr 11PRE

D2-2LivingstonApr 5PRE

W1-0DundeeMar 21PRE

L0-1KilmarnockMar 14PRE

W1-0AberdeenFeb 28PRE

W1-0FalkirkFeb 21PRE

Sturm Graz

W4-0Heart Of MidlothianJul 21UEF

W1-0Pogon SzczecinJul 15FRI

W5-1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJul 11FRI

W4-1KalsdorfJul 8FRI

D2-2FK KošiceJul 3FRI

L2-6LNZ CherkasyJun 30FRI

W5-0MuraJun 26FRI

W2-0Rapid ViennaMay 17BL

W4-2TSV HartbergMay 10BL

D1-1Red Bull SalzburgMay 3BL

D1-1Austria ViennaApr 26BL

D1-1Lask LinzApr 22BL

D1-1Lask LinzApr 19BL

D0-0TSV HartbergApr 12BL

W2-0Rapid ViennaApr 5BL

Squad & Injuries

Heart of Midlothian

33 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Sturm Graz

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Heart of Midlothian0Sturm Graz2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Draw or Sturm Graz

Over 2.5

Yes

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 4.5

Heart of Midlothian

Heart of Midlothian

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Heart of Midlothian

Sturm Graz

Squad & Injuries

Heart of Midlothian

Sturm Graz