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Predictions graded

KA Akureyri0Thor Akureyri0

HT 0–0Mon 27 Jul 2026, 19:15 Predictions graded

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–517%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jul 2026, 08:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect an open, high-scoring relegation derby with both teams likely to find the net, but the best value lies in over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.91, where our 60% estimate offers a clear edge over the 52.4% implied probability.

Steer clear of KA to win at 1.65, as their poor home record and Thor's new signings make the odds far too short.

Context

Gunnarsson returns from Al Gharafa, adding leadership and top-flight experience.
- Gudbrandsson has 90 Úrvalsdeild appearances and joins on loan from KR.
- Both were officially announced on 17 July, giving limited time to gel before a high-pressure match.
KA confirmed on 16 July that the derby will be played on the new field with numbered seating.
- The club described the new ground as 'changing everything' for them.
- Home record this season: 2-0-5, with both wins against mid-table sides.
Thor coach Sigurdur Hoskuldsson said his side 'should never have lost' the 1-0 defeat.
- The match was decided by a late penalty, adding to the sense of injustice.
- Thor created chances and felt they deserved at least a draw.
KA average 1.0 conceded in the second half; Thor average 1.6 conceded.
- Last 5 matches: KA second-half totals of 2, 3, 2, 1, 3; Thor 2, 4, 2, 2, 0.
- Both teams have a high rate of second-half goals in recent outings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high goals-against averages and a majority of recent matches exceeding 2.5 goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities and relegation-pressure openness.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both sides consistently score and concede, and with relegation stakes and new signings boosting attacks, both are likely to find the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams frequently concede early, and with high stakes, an early goal is likely as nerves or aggressive starts lead to chances.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

KA Akureyri

1.65fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

KA's home advantage, slightly better recent H2H, and Thor's dreadful away defensive record (3.4 goals conceded per game) make them narrow favourites, but the odds imply a much higher win probability than our model supports.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
KA's home advantage, slightly better form, and H2H edge give them a narrow favorite status, though Thor's desperation and new signings add uncertainty.
- KA Akureyri home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses; but wins came against mid-table sides.
- Thor Akureyri away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 5 losses; goals conceded away: 24 in 7 matches (3.4 per game).
- H2H: KA won last meeting 1-0 away; overall recent H2H favors KA (2 wins in last 2 league meetings).
- KA's last 5 form: D-W-L-L-L, but Thor's last 5: W-L-D-L-D; both struggling, but KA has home advantage and new stadium boost.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKA AkureyriEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KA are favorites but not dominant; Thor's poor away form makes a KA win or draw the most likely double chance, covering the majority of outcomes.
- KA Akureyri home: 2 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses; but 2 of 5 losses were by 1 goal, suggesting close contests.
- Thor Akureyri away: 1 win, 1 draw, 5 losses; only 1 draw in 7 away matches.
- KA's last 5 home matches: 2 wins, 3 losses; Thor's last 5 away: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses.
- Relegation derby often produces tight, cautious starts; draw is a plausible outcome given both teams' need to avoid defeat.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKA Akureyri or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given both teams' tendency to be level at the break and the cautious nature of relegation derbies, a draw at half time is a plausible outcome, though low confidence due to high first half goal rates.
- KA Akureyri: led at half time in 20% of matches, trailed in 53%, drawn in 27%.
- Thor Akureyri: led at half time in 13% of matches, trailed in 60%, drawn in 27%.
- Last H2H: 0-0 at half time.
- Both teams have a high rate of first half draws (27% each), and derbies often start cautiously.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the last H2H pattern is possible: a cagey first half followed by KA edging it, but the low probability reflects the overall unpredictability of the derby.
- KA Akureyri: 2 of 7 home wins came after a draw at half time.
- Thor Akureyri: 2 of 5 away losses came after a draw at half time.
- Last H2H: 0-0 at half time, KA won 1-0.
- KA's home form shows they can grind out wins after tight first halves.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / KA AkureyriEstimated chance22%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high goals-against averages and a majority of recent matches exceeding 2.5 goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities and relegation-pressure openness.
- KA Akureyri's last 15 matches: 1.5 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game; 73% of matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Thor Akureyri's last 15 matches: 1.1 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game; 80% of matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Combined average goals per match: 3.6 (KA) + 3.9 (Thor) = 3.75, well above the 2.5 line.
- Last 5 matches: KA 4/5 over 2.5, Thor 4/5 over 2.5, showing strong recent trend.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently score and concede, and with relegation stakes and new signings boosting attacks, both are likely to find the net.
- KA Akureyri: scored in 12 of last 15 matches (80%), conceded in 13 of 15 (87%).
- Thor Akureyri: scored in 10 of last 15 matches (67%), conceded in 14 of 15 (93%).
- Both teams scored in 60% of KA's matches and 67% of Thor's matches this season.
- Last H2H: 1-0, but Thor created chances and felt they deserved a goal; revenge motivation may increase attacking intent.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently concede early, and with high stakes, an early goal is likely as nerves or aggressive starts lead to chances.
- KA Akureyri: first half goals in 11 of last 15 matches (73%); first half goals conceded in 12 of 15 (80%).
- Thor Akureyri: first half goals in 8 of last 15 matches (53%); first half goals conceded in 12 of 15 (80%).
- Combined first half goal rate: 73% of matches see at least one first half goal.
- Last 5 matches: KA 4/5 over 0.5 FH goals, Thor 4/5 over 0.5 FH goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher scoring as fatigue and desperation set in; both teams' recent second half goal averages support over 1.5.
- KA Akureyri: average second half goals per match: 1.0 scored + 1.0 conceded = 2.0 total.
- Thor Akureyri: average second half goals per match: 0.7 scored + 1.6 conceded = 2.3 total.
- Last 5 matches: KA second half totals: 2, 3, 2, 1, 3 (avg 2.2); Thor: 2, 4, 2, 2, 0 (avg 2.0).
- Relegation pressure often leads to more open play and goals in the second half as teams chase results.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, we rely on league norms and match intensity; the high-stakes, open nature of the game suggests a slightly above-average corner count.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided stats, so this is based on league averages and match context.
- Úrvalsdeild average corners per match is approximately 10.2 (based on typical league data).
- Relegation derbies often feature end-to-end play and blocked shots, leading to higher corner counts.
- Both teams concede many goals, suggesting defensive pressure and clearances that result in corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 7 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 0W

W0-1Thor AkureyrivKA AkureyriMay 2, 2026ÚRV

W1-0KA AkureyrivThor AkureyriMar 2, 2023LEA

W0-3Thor AkureyrivKA AkureyriSep 24, 20161.

W1-0KA AkureyrivThor AkureyriJul 16, 20161.

KA Akureyri unbeaten in 4 meetingsKA Akureyri: 4 clean sheets1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	KA Akureyri	15	4	2	9	24-32	14	DWLLL
12	Thor Akureyri	15	3	2	10	17-42	11	WLDLD

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

KA Akureyri

D2-2IBV VestmannaeyjarJul 19ÚRV

W3-2IA AkranesJul 12ÚRV

L2-3Vikingur ReykjavikJul 2ÚRV

L1-3StjarnanJun 28ÚRV

L1-3BreidablikJun 21ÚRV

L3-4Fram ReykjavikJun 15ÚRV

L3-5KR ReykjavikMay 31ÚRV

L0-1Valur ReykjavikMay 22ÚRV

W2-1FH hafnarfjordurMay 17ÚRV

L1-2ÆgirMay 14CUP

W2-0IBV VestmannaeyjarMay 10ÚRV

W1-0Thor AkureyriMay 2ÚRV

L1-2KeflavikApr 26ÚRV

D1-1IA AkranesApr 22ÚRV

L0-2Vikingur ReykjavikApr 17ÚRV

Thor Akureyri

W2-1Vikingur ReykjavikJul 18ÚRV

L1-6Fram ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

D3-3KR ReykjavikJul 2ÚRV

L2-4Valur ReykjavikJun 28ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurJun 21ÚRV

L1-4IBV VestmannaeyjarJun 14ÚRV

L1-3StjarnanMay 31ÚRV

L0-1KeflavikMay 22ÚRV

L1-2IA AkranesMay 17ÚRV

L0-6Vikingur ReykjavikMay 8ÚRV

L0-1KA AkureyriMay 2ÚRV

L0-4BreidablikApr 27ÚRV

W1-0Fram ReykjavikApr 23ÚRV

L2-5KR ReykjavikApr 17ÚRV

W2-1Valur ReykjavikApr 12ÚRV

Squad & Injuries

KA Akureyri

30 available

Attackers4

Midfielders14

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Thor Akureyri

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

KA Akureyri

KA Akureyri or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

KA Akureyri

KA Akureyri or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

KA Akureyri

Thor Akureyri

Squad & Injuries

KA Akureyri

Thor Akureyri