First LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

CSKA Sofia3Botev Plovdiv2

HT 1–1Mon 27 Jul 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:27 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA Sofia's dominant H2H record and Botev's squad rebuild suggest a low-scoring affair, but the neutral venue and market overvaluation make CSKA win bets poor value.

The best edge is Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 (60% estimated probability) and especially first-half Under 0.5 goals at 3.10 (55% estimated probability), offering a 22.7-point value gap.

Context

Botev announced Senger as signing No. 9 and Rodrigues as No. 10 on July 21, just days before this match.
- Genchev was confirmed as head coach after Dimitar Dimitrov left in February, and he set European qualification as the target.
- Ten new signings suggest significant squad churn, which typically requires time to gel.
CSKA won 4-0, 3-0, and 3-0 in the three meetings prior to the 1-1 draw.
- CSKA kept clean sheets in three of the last five H2H encounters.
- The most recent H2H was a 1-1 draw, but CSKA's historical dominance is clear.
Botev's official fixture page lists the match at Vasil Levski National Stadium.
- CSKA's traditional home ground is Balgarska Armija, so the neutral venue changes the dynamic.
- Neutral venues often level the playing field, especially for away teams.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's dominant recent H2H record (3 clean-sheet wins in last 5) and Botev's ongoing squad rebuild give the hosts a clear edge, though the neutral venue slightly reduces home advantage.
- CSKA won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, all by 3+ goals and to nil (4-0, 3-0, 3-0).
- Botev are integrating 10 new summer signings, with squad cohesion likely low.
- CSKA's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 2+ in 3 of those wins.
- Botev's away form in last 5 competitive matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA SofiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's strong H2H home record and Botev's poor away form make a home win or draw highly probable, supported by CSKA's recent stability.
- CSKA have not lost at home to Botev in last 5 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw).
- Botev have lost 3 of last 5 away competitive matches.
- CSKA's last 5 matches: only 1 loss (a friendly vs Polessya).
- Botev's only competitive away match this season was a 1-1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCSKA Sofia or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's slight edge in first-half performance and Botev's tendency to start slowly in away games support a narrow home lead at the break.
- CSKA led at halftime in 2 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- CSKA's last 5 matches: led at halftime in 2, drew 2, trailed 1.
- Botev's last 5 competitive matches: led at halftime in 1, drew 2, trailed 2.
- CSKA's first-half goals average: 0.4 per game; Botev's first-half conceded: 0.3 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCSKA SofiaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's ability to win after a level first half, combined with Botev's tendency to fade, gives a low-probability but plausible HT/FT combo.
- CSKA won 2 of last 5 H2H after drawing at halftime.
- CSKA's last 5 matches: 2 draws at halftime, both ended in wins.
- Botev's last 5 competitive matches: 2 draws at halftime, 1 ended in loss, 1 in draw.
- CSKA's second-half performance tends to be stronger.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / CSKA SofiaEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H and both teams' competitive match trends point to a low-scoring affair, with CSKA's solid defense and Botev's integration issues limiting goal output.
- CSKA's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.8 total goals.
- Botev's last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.2 total goals.
- 3 of last 5 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals.
- CSKA's home form shows 2 of last 3 competitive home games under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA's historical defensive dominance over Botev (3 clean sheets in last 5 H2H) and Botev's squad transition suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- CSKA kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings vs Botev.
- Botev failed to score in 2 of last 5 competitive away matches.
- CSKA's last 5 competitive matches: 2 clean sheets.
- Botev's attack may struggle with new signings still gelling.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's strong defensive record against Botev and the visitors' integration challenges give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet, though the neutral venue adds uncertainty.
- CSKA kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 H2H vs Botev.
- CSKA's last 5 competitive matches: 2 clean sheets.
- Botev scored only 1 goal in their last competitive away match.
- Botev's new signings may lack attacking cohesion.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBotev Plovdiv not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a pattern of low-scoring first halves, with 60% of recent H2H meetings goalless at the break, making a 0-0 halftime likely.
- CSKA's last 5 matches: 3 had 0 first-half goals.
- Botev's last 5 competitive matches: 3 had 0 first-half goals.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were 0-0 at halftime.
- CSKA averages 0.4 first-half goals; Botev averages 0.7 but only 0.3 conceded.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data suggests a low total, supported by the expected cautious play and Botev's below-average corner numbers.
- Botev's last 5 competitive matches averaged 3.5 corners per game.
- CSKA's corner data is unavailable, but their style suggests moderate corner counts.
- H2H corner data is unavailable, but low-scoring games often have fewer corners.
- Botev's away matches tend to have lower corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined team averages suggest around 5 cards, and the competitive nature of the fixture could push the total over 3.5.
- CSKA averages 2 yellow cards per game in last 15 matches.
- Botev averages 3 yellow cards per game in last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: card data unavailable, but rivalry matches often see more cards.
- Botev's recent competitive matches had 4+ cards in 2 of last 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W2-1CSKA SofiavBotev PlovdivNov 22, 2025FIR

D1-1Botev PlovdivvCSKA SofiaJul 19, 2025FIR

W0-4Botev PlovdivvCSKA SofiaMay 26, 2025FIR

W3-0CSKA SofiavBotev PlovdivMay 9, 2025FIR

W0-3Botev PlovdivvCSKA SofiaFeb 22, 2025FIR

CSKA Sofia unbeaten in 5 meetingsCSKA Sofia: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	CSKA Sofia efbet League (Relegation Group)	1	0	1	0	0-0	1	D
5	Botev Plovdiv Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	1	0	1	0	1-1	1	D

CSKA Sofia in relegation zone

Recent Form

CSKA Sofia

D0-0Slavia SofiaJul 20FIR

W2-1Derry CityJul 16UEF

W3-2Derry CityJul 9UEF

W3-0MarekJul 3FRI

W3-2Odra OpoleJun 28FRI

L0-4PolessyaJun 24FRI

W2-1Brinje-GrosupljeJun 20FRI

L0-1LudogoretsMay 25FIR

L0-2Levski SofiaMay 16FIR

D1-1CSKA 1948May 13FIR

W1-0CSKA 1948May 8FIR

W1-0LudogoretsMay 3FIR

D0-0LudogoretsApr 29CUP

L1-3Levski SofiaApr 25FIR

W2-1LudogoretsApr 21CUP

Botev Plovdiv

D1-1Lokomotiv SofiaJul 21FIR

W4-0BeroeJul 12FRI

W1-0Spartak VarnaJul 4FRI

L1-2Etar Veliko TarnovoJul 4FRI

W4-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasJul 1FRI

W2-0BallkaniJun 27FRI

W2-1Arda KardzhaliJun 26FRI

W4-0Spartak PlevenJun 23FRI

L1-2Lokomotiv PlovdivMay 25FIR

W5-0Cherno More VarnaMay 16FIR

L1-2Arda KardzhaliMay 12FIR

L0-2Cherno More VarnaMay 9FIR

L0-2Lokomotiv PlovdivMay 3FIR

W2-0Arda KardzhaliApr 26FIR

W3-0DobrudzhaApr 14FIR

Squad & Injuries

CSKA Sofia

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Botev Plovdiv

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders14

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

CSKA Sofia

Botev Plovdiv

Squad & Injuries

CSKA Sofia

Botev Plovdiv