Major League SoccerFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

St Louis City1Colorado Rapids0

HT 0–0Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 19–2On targetOn target 3–0CornersCorners 10–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 08:32 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring playoff-race clash is expected, with under 2.5 goals the standout value bet (+26.5-point edge).

First-half under 1.5 goals and first-half draw also offer edges, while the match winner market is overpriced and best avoided.

Context

After the July 17 win, coach Yoann Damet said Bürki was available but not fit enough to dress, so Lundt played.
- Bürki is the team captain and primary shot-stopper; his absence introduces risk to a defense that has conceded only 9 goals in 7 home matches.
Ian Murphy was traded after 22 appearances across all competitions.
- MLS disciplinary summary listed Navarro and Frederick suspended for Colorado's July 22 match, indicating they are unavailable here.
MLS 2026 sends top seven to Round One and seeds 8-9 into a wild-card match, making every point critical.
- Lowen stated after the July 17 restart that St. Louis aim to reach the playoff line as soon as possible.
2026: Colorado 0-1 St. Louis; 2025: Colorado 1-0 St. Louis; 2025: St. Louis 0-0 Colorado.
- At St. Louis's home, Colorado won 3-0 in 2024 and drew 0-0 in 2025, showing they can frustrate the hosts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home form and recent momentum, combined with Colorado's poor away record and defensive disruptions, give the hosts a clear edge, though the tight H2H history caps confidence.
- St Louis City home record: 4W-1D-2L, 14 goals for, 9 against in 7 matches
- Colorado Rapids away record: 2W-1D-6L, 10 goals for, 15 against in 9 matches
- St Louis City last 5 form: WWDWW, Colorado last 5 form: LLWLL
- H2H last 3: St Louis City won 1-0 away in May 2026, previous two were 0-0 and 1-0 Colorado
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt Louis CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home resilience and Colorado's struggles on the road make a home win or draw highly probable, reinforced by the recent H2H pattern of low-scoring, tight contests.
- St Louis City home: only 2 losses in 7, 71% unbeaten
- Colorado away: 6 losses in 9, only 2 wins
- H2H last 3: no Colorado away win (1 St Louis win, 2 draws)
- St Louis City last 5: unbeaten (4W-1D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Louis City or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of cagey first halves in this fixture, combined with both teams' moderate first-half leading percentages, points to a draw at the break.
- St Louis City first half record: led at HT in 40% of matches, trailed in 13%
- Colorado first half record: led at HT in 40%, trailed in 33%
- H2H last 3 first halves: all draws (0-0 each time)
- St Louis City last 5 first halves: 3 draws, 2 wins
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a St Louis City win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength at home and Colorado's tendency to fade, but the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact sequences.
- St Louis City home: 4 wins, 3 of them after leading at HT
- Colorado away: 6 losses, 4 of them after trailing at HT
- H2H last 3: no HT/FT double for either side (all draws at HT)
- St Louis City last 5: 3 wins, 2 after leading at HT
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / St Louis CityEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H psychology of three consecutive low-scoring meetings, combined with playoff-race stakes encouraging cautious play, strongly supports under 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 3: all under 2.5 goals (1-0, 1-0, 0-0)
- St Louis City home: 9 goals conceded in 7, avg 1.29 per game
- Colorado away: 15 goals conceded in 9, but only 10 scored
- Both teams' recent form: St Louis City last 5 avg 2.0 total goals, Colorado last 5 avg 2.2 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of at least one team failing to score, along with Colorado's away scoring difficulties and St Louis City's decent home defense, makes a clean sheet for one side likely.
- H2H last 3: both teams scored in 0 of 3 (1-0, 1-0, 0-0)
- St Louis City home: clean sheets in 2 of last 5 home matches
- Colorado away: failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches
- St Louis City goalkeeper situation: Burki still not fit, but defense has been solid at home
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with St Louis City especially strong defensively in first halves, and the H2H history shows three consecutive 0-0 first halves.
- St Louis City first half goals: avg 0.6 per game, conceded 0.3
- Colorado first half goals: avg 0.9 per game, conceded 0.7
- H2H last 3 first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0
- St Louis City last 5 first halves: 4 of 5 had 0 or 1 goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While the H2H trend is mixed, St Louis City's home matches tend to open up after halftime, and the playoff urgency could lead to more second-half action, though confidence is low due to the overall defensive nature of this fixture.
- St Louis City second half goals: avg 1.0 per game (1.6 total - 0.6 first half)
- Colorado second half goals: avg 0.6 per game (1.5 total - 0.9 first half)
- H2H last 3 second halves: 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 (two had 1 goal, one had 0)
- St Louis City home second halves: 14 goals in 7 games, avg 2.0 total per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average relatively low corner counts, and St Louis City's recent home matches have seen fewer corners, suggesting a total under 9.5 is likely despite one high H2H outlier.
- St Louis City avg corners: 6.2 per game, opponent corners: 5.1
- Colorado avg corners: 4.6 per game, opponent corners: 4.3
- H2H last meeting (May 2026): St Louis City 1 corner, Colorado 11 corners (total 12, but outlier)
- St Louis City last 5 home corners: 5, 2, 2, 6, 8 (avg 4.6)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have above-average card counts, and the high-stakes context combined with a physical H2H history points to a card-heavy match.
- St Louis City avg yellow cards: 2.6 per game, opponent: 2.1
- Colorado avg yellow cards: 3.0 per game, opponent: 2.7
- H2H last meeting: St Louis City 5 yellows, Colorado 3 yellows (total 8)
- Playoff-race stakes likely to increase intensity and fouls
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-1Colorado RapidsvSt. Louis CityMay 10, 2026MAJ

L1-0Colorado RapidsvSt. Louis CityMay 25, 2025MAJ

D0-0St. Louis CityvColorado RapidsFeb 23, 2025MAJ

L4-1Colorado RapidsvSt. Louis CityJul 8, 2024MAJ

W0-3St. Louis CityvColorado RapidsJun 20, 2024MAJ

St Louis City: 3 clean sheetsColorado Rapids: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	St Louis City	15	5	4	6	19-22	19	WWDWW
13	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25-24	16	LLWLL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

St Louis City

W3-2Sporting Kansas CityJul 17MAJ

W3-0AustinMay 23MAJ

D1-1DC UnitedMay 16MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles FCMay 14MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsMay 10MAJ

L0-2AustinMay 3MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireApr 30US

L2-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 26MAJ

L1-4Seattle SoundersApr 19MAJ

W4-0FC TulsaApr 16US

D1-1FC DallasApr 12MAJ

D1-1New York City FCApr 4MAJ

W3-1New England RevolutionMar 22MAJ

L0-2Los Angeles FCMar 15MAJ

L0-1Seattle SoundersMar 8MAJ

Colorado Rapids

D1-1FC JuarezJul 10FRI

L1-2FC DallasMay 24MAJ

W2-0San Jose EarthquakesMay 21US

L1-2Real Salt LakeMay 17MAJ

W1-0Minnesota United FCMay 14MAJ

L0-1St. Louis CityMay 10MAJ

L0-1Houston DynamoMay 3MAJ

L1-3Vancouver WhitecapsApr 26MAJ

D0-0Los Angeles FCApr 23MAJ

L2-3Inter MiamiApr 18MAJ

W1-0Union OmahaApr 15US

W6-2Houston DynamoApr 12MAJ

L2-3Toronto FCApr 4MAJ

W4-1Sporting Kansas CityMar 22MAJ

L1-3New York City FCMar 14MAJ

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Colorado Rapids

33 available

Attackers10

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Over 4.5

St Louis City or Draw

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Colorado Rapids

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Louis City

Colorado Rapids

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

Colorado Rapids