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Predictions graded

SD Aucas1CSD Macara4

HT 1–1Sun 26 Jul 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 13–11On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jul 2026, 07:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Macará's strong recent H2H record at Aucas and current form make them live underdogs; the value lies in backing Macará or draw (double chance) and under 2.5 goals.

A tight, tactical match is likely, with a goalless first half a solid medium-confidence play.

Context

Macará won 2-0 and 4-1 in their last two visits to Aucas.
- Overall, Macará have won 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings.
- Aucas won the latest meeting 1-0 away, but that was their only win in the last four.
LigaPro previews described Macará as 'with calculator in hand' chasing reward positions.
- Aucas are also described as back 'in competition' with live table incentive.
- The match is in Fecha 22 of the Fase Inicial, not a dead rubber.
Aucas beat Técnico Universitario 1-0 and Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 in their last two league matches.
- They have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 league games.
- LigaPro coverage highlighted their 'strong tactical application' under Beto Araujo.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macará's strong recent H2H record at Aucas and current form, combined with Aucas' solid but low-margin home performances, make a draw the most balanced outcome given the high stakes for both sides.
- Aucas home record: 6W-1D-3L, but Macará away record: 3W-3D-4L, showing resilience on the road.
- H2H last 5: Macará won 3, including 2-0 and 4-1 at Aucas; Aucas won the latest 1-0 away.
- Aucas last 5 form: 3W-1D-1L, conceding only 3 goals; Macará last 5: 4W-0D-1L, scoring 9 goals.
- Both teams in playoff spots with live stakes; Macará described as 'with calculator in hand' chasing reward positions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Macará's historical edge at this venue and current momentum, coupled with Aucas' modest home dominance, support a double chance favoring the away side to at least avoid defeat.
- Macará have won 3 of last 4 H2H meetings, including 2 of last 3 visits to Aucas.
- Aucas home win rate only 60% (6/10), with 3 losses; Macará avoided defeat in 6 of 10 away games.
- Macará's recent form: 4 wins in last 5, scoring 9 goals; Aucas' last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, with only 5 goals scored.
- Intelligence: Macará arrive with active incentive under Sanguinetti, still climbing toward reward positions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CSD MacaraEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of halftime draws in this matchup and both sides' tendency to start conservatively make a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Aucas home halftime record: led in 3 of 10, drew 5; Macará away halftime: led in 3 of 10, drew 4.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at halftime.
- Aucas last 5 first halves: 2 wins, 3 draws; Macará last 5 first halves: 3 wins, 2 draws.
- Both teams' first-half goal averages are low (0.5 each), indicating tight early exchanges.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a common outcome historically, the combination of tactical caution and mutual respect could produce a stalemate from start to finish.
- Aucas home: 1 draw at halftime and fulltime in 10 matches; Macará away: 2 such results in 10.
- Last 5 H2H: no draw/draw results, but 3 draws at halftime.
- Both teams have shown ability to hold draws: Aucas 5 draws in 20, Macará 5 in 21.
- The match context of high stakes for both may lead to a cautious, balanced affair.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent defensive solidity and low-scoring trends, especially Aucas' tactical discipline at home, strongly point to a match with fewer than 2.5 goals.
- Aucas home goals per game: 1.3, conceded 1.0; Macará away goals per game: 0.9, conceded 1.2.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, including the latest 1-0.
- Aucas last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals; Macará last 5: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Aucas' control-first approach under Beto Araujo emphasizes low-margin wins; Macará's away games average 2.1 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aucas' strong defensive form at home and Macará's occasional struggles to score on the road suggest at least one side will fail to find the net.
- Aucas home clean sheets: 4 in last 10; Macará away failed to score in 4 of 10.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings.
- Aucas last 5: kept 3 clean sheets; Macará last 5: kept 2 clean sheets.
- Aucas' recent defensive record: conceded only 3 goals in last 5; Macará scored in 4 of last 5 but face a disciplined home defense.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Aucas have shown defensive resilience, Macará's ability to score in most recent H2H matches makes a home clean sheet a low-confidence but plausible outcome given current form.
- Aucas kept 4 home clean sheets in 10 this season.
- Macará failed to score in 4 of 10 away games.
- Aucas last 5: 3 clean sheets; Macará last 5 away: scored in 3 of 5.
- H2H: Macará scored in 4 of last 5 meetings, but Aucas shut them out in the latest encounter.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCSD Macara not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of slow starts in this fixture and both teams' moderate first-half scoring rates support a goalless opening period.
- Aucas first half goals at home: 0.5 per game; Macará first half goals away: 0.5 per game.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had 0 goals at halftime.
- Aucas last 5: 3 matches were 0-0 at halftime; Macará last 5: 2 matches were 0-0 at halftime.
- Both teams tend to start cautiously: Aucas led at halftime in only 27% of matches, Macará in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the competitive nature of the match could push the total past 9.5, though the evidence is not strong.
- Aucas home corners per game: 5.5; Macará away corners per game: 5.9.
- Last 5 H2H: corner data unavailable for most, but recent matches show Aucas averaging 5.2 corners, Macará 5.8.
- Aucas last 5 home corners: 5, 8, 5, 5, 11 (avg 6.8); Macará last 5 away corners: 4, 4, 4, 4, 9 (avg 5.0).
- Combined average corners in their matches: Aucas 10.5, Macará 10.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The typical card counts for both sides hover around the 4.5 line, and a tense, high-stakes encounter could see a slight uptick in disciplinary actions.
- Aucas home yellow cards: 2.3 per game; Macará away yellow cards: 2.4 per game.
- Last 5 H2H: card data unavailable, but both teams average over 2 cards per match.
- Aucas last 5: 2, 2, 4, 1, 2 yellows (avg 2.2); Macará last 5: 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 yellows (avg 1.8).
- Combined average cards in their matches: Aucas 4.6, Macará 4.8.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-1MacaravAucasApr 5, 2026LIG

W0-2AucasvMacaraDec 20, 2025LIG

L3-2MacaravAucasOct 5, 2025LIG

W1-4AucasvMacaraJul 6, 2025LIG

D1-1MacaravAucasMar 9, 2025LIG

SD Aucas: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	SD Aucas Play-offs	20	10	5	5	22-19	35	WLWWD
5	CSD Macara Play-offs	21	9	5	7	24-21	32	WLWWW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

SD Aucas

W1-0Tecnico UniversitarioJul 19LIG

L0-3Independiente del ValleJul 16LIG

W1-0Deportivo CuencaJul 12LIG

W1-0Guayaquil City FCJul 8LIG

D0-0Mushuc Runa SCMay 31LIG

W3-1Manta FCMay 26LIG

W3-0San AntonioMay 21COP

L0-3Barcelona SCMay 17LIG

W2-1Universidad CatolicaMay 9LIG

L2-3LibertadMay 2LIG

W1-0Delfin SCApr 28LIG

D0-0LDU de QuitoApr 23LIG

W1-0Leones del NorteApr 17LIG

W2-0EmelecApr 12LIG

W1-0MacaraApr 5LIG

CSD Macara

W3-0Deportivo CuencaJul 22LIG

L1-2Delfin SCJul 18LIG

W2-1Mushuc Runa SCJul 14LIG

W2-0Tecnico UniversitarioJul 11LIG

W1-0LDU de QuitoJul 5LIG

W1-0Deportivo Cuenca JuniorsJun 4COP

D1-1Leones del NorteJun 1LIG

D0-0America de CaliMay 29CON

L0-2EmelecMay 24LIG

D0-0Alianza AtleticoMay 22CON

L0-3Independiente del ValleMay 16LIG

W1-0Manta FCMay 10LIG

D2-2TigreMay 7CON

L1-2Orense SCMay 3LIG

W2-0Alianza AtleticoMay 1CON

Squad & Injuries

SD Aucas

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

CSD Macara

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or CSD Macara

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

SD Aucas

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

SD Aucas

CSD Macara

Squad & Injuries

SD Aucas

CSD Macara