EliteserienFull time

Predictions graded

Sarpsborg1Ham-Kam0

HT 1–0Sun 26 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 09:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Sarpsborg's rest advantage, new signings, and Ham-Kam's dire away form (0 wins, 11 conceded) make the hosts clear favourites, but the 1.85 odds offer no value.

The H2H history screams goals and avoids draws—only one stalemate in 13 meetings—so expect an open, high-scoring affair with Sarpsborg likely to edge it.

Context

Sarpsborg's last match was a 0-0 draw at Kristiansund on 18 July, giving them eight days between games.
- Ham-Kam play away at Bodø/Glimt on 22 July, then travel to Sarpsborg for this match on 26 July.
- Ham-Kam's official fixture list confirms the tight schedule, with a long domestic journey between the two away games.
Ham-Kam's away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, with 7 goals scored and 11 conceded.
- In their last away match, a 2-2 draw at Sandefjord, they conceded twice and trailed at half-time.
- After the 1-4 home loss to Tromsø on 18 July, Ham-Kam's own report said they were forced low and struggled to get out.
Marius Lode signed on 13 July after the sporting director said the club had to react to its injury situation.
- Olaus Skarsem signed on 16 July and is a box-to-box midfielder.
- Both players were used as substitutes in the 0-0 draw at Kristiansund on 18 July.
Only 1 draw in 13 all-competition meetings; 51 total goals scored (3.92 per game).
- Last two league H2Hs: Sarpsborg won 4-0 at home and 3-1 away.
- The most recent friendly in March 2026 ended 2-2, but competitive matches have been one-sided.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sarpsborg

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Sarpsborg's strong home form and Ham-Kam's poor away record, combined with a dominant recent H2H, give the hosts a clear edge. The rest advantage and new signings further tilt the match in Sarpsborg's favor.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sarpsborg or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Sarpsborg's home resilience and Ham-Kam's inability to win on the road make a home win or draw highly probable. The H2H trend of few draws is countered by Sarpsborg's current solidity at home.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

H2H history is explosively high-scoring (3.92 goals/game), and Ham-Kam's away matches average 3.6 total goals, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's strong home form and Ham-Kam's poor away record, combined with a dominant recent H2H, give the hosts a clear edge. The rest advantage and new signings further tilt the match in Sarpsborg's favor.
- Sarpsborg home record: 3W-2D-1L, 7 goals scored, 5 conceded in 6 matches.
- Ham-Kam away record: 0W-3D-2L, 7 goals scored, 11 conceded in 5 matches.
- H2H last 5: Sarpsborg 3 wins, 2 draws; last 2 league meetings: 4-0 and 3-1 Sarpsborg wins.
- Sarpsborg form last 5: D-W-W-W-L (10 points); Ham-Kam last 5: L-D-D-W-L (5 points).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSarpsborgEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's home resilience and Ham-Kam's inability to win on the road make a home win or draw highly probable. The H2H trend of few draws is countered by Sarpsborg's current solidity at home.
- Sarpsborg have lost only 1 of 6 home matches this season.
- Ham-Kam have won 0 of 5 away matches, drawing 3.
- H2H: only 1 draw in 13 meetings, but Sarpsborg unbeaten in last 5 H2Hs (3W, 2D).
- Sarpsborg's defensive improvement: only 5 goals conceded in 6 home games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSarpsborg or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's ability to start strongly at home, combined with Ham-Kam's poor first-half away record, gives the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Sarpsborg led at half-time in 27% of last 15 matches; Ham-Kam trailed in 40%.
- Sarpsborg home half-time leads: 2 in last 5 home games.
- Ham-Kam away half-time deficits: trailed in 3 of last 5 away games.
- H2H: Sarpsborg led at half-time in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSarpsborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sarpsborg's home second-half record is strong, and Ham-Kam's away struggles often worsen after the break. The hosts' fresh legs and tactical adjustments should give them the edge in the second period.
- Sarpsborg have won the second half in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Ham-Kam have lost the second half in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Sarpsborg's new signings (Lode, Skarsem) add depth for stronger second-half performances.
- Ham-Kam's fatigue from midweek travel may impact second-half stamina.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSarpsborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a frequent occurrence, Sarpsborg's ability to control matches at home and Ham-Kam's vulnerability when trailing make a home HT/FT result a plausible outcome.
- Sarpsborg have led at half-time and won in 2 of 6 home games.
- Ham-Kam have trailed at half-time and lost in 2 of 5 away games.
- H2H: Sarpsborg led at half-time and won in 2 of last 5 meetings.
- Sarpsborg's home form: 3 wins, 2 of which were after leading at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableSarpsborg/SarpsborgEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H history is explosively high-scoring, and Ham-Kam's away games consistently see goals. Despite Sarpsborg's modest home totals, the matchup psychology and Ham-Kam's leaky away defense point to over 2.5 goals.
- H2H: 51 goals in 13 meetings (3.92 per game); last 5 H2Hs: 4, 5, 4, 4, 3 goals.
- Ham-Kam away matches average 3.6 total goals (18 goals in 5 games).
- Sarpsborg home matches average 2.0 total goals, but 4 of last 5 H2Hs exceeded 2.5.
- Both teams score in 4 of Ham-Kam's 5 away games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam consistently find the net on the road, while Sarpsborg are not watertight at home. The H2H pattern and both teams' scoring records suggest goals at both ends.
- Ham-Kam have scored in all 5 away games this season (7 goals total).
- Sarpsborg have conceded in 4 of 6 home games.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
- Ham-Kam's last 5 away games: both teams scored in 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend shows lively first halves, and Sarpsborg's home matches often feature early goals. Ham-Kam's tendency to concede early on the road supports over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Sarpsborg average 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.9 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Ham-Kam average 0.5 first-half goals scored, 0.8 conceded in last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals: 2, 3, 2, 2, 1 (average 2.0).
- Sarpsborg's last 5 home games: 4 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and Sarpsborg's home matches tend to be high in corner counts. The H2H history shows variability, but the overall trend supports over 9.5 corners.
- Sarpsborg average 5.0 corners per game; Ham-Kam average 4.3.
- Combined average: 9.3 corners per game.
- H2H last 5 with corner data: 12, 7, 11, 3, 8 (average 8.2, but 3 of 5 over 9.5).
- Sarpsborg home games average 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H encounters tend to be feisty, and both teams' recent matches have seen an uptick in cards. The competitive nature of this mid-table clash should push the total over 3.5 cards.
- Sarpsborg average 1.4 yellow cards per game; Ham-Kam average 1.4.
- Combined average: 2.8 cards per game, but recent matches show higher counts.
- Last 5 H2Hs with card data: 4, 3, 5, 4, 3 cards (average 3.8).
- Sarpsborg home games average 3.3 total cards; Ham-Kam away games average 3.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D2-2Sarpsborg 08 FFvHam-KamMar 26, 2026FRI

L3-2Sarpsborg 08 FFvHam-KamFeb 13, 2026FRI

W1-3Ham-KamvSarpsborg 08 FFAug 31, 2025ELI

L4-0Sarpsborg 08 FFvHam-KamMay 11, 2025ELI

L2-1Sarpsborg 08 FFvHam-KamMar 7, 2025FRI

4 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Sarpsborg	13	5	3	5	14-16	18	DWWWL
7	Ham-Kam	12	5	3	4	20-22	18	LDDWL

Recent Form

Sarpsborg

D0-0Kristiansund BKJul 18ELI

W1-0VikingJul 12ELI

L1-3LillestromJul 3FRI

W2-1BrannMay 29ELI

W2-1MoldeMay 25ELI

L2-3ValerengaMay 16ELI

W2-1FredrikstadMay 9ELI

L0-4LillestromMay 3ELI

L0-1KFUM OsloApr 26ELI

L0-1TromsoApr 19ELI

D1-1Bodo/GlimtApr 15ELI

L1-2RosenborgApr 12ELI

D1-1StartApr 6ELI

D2-2Ham-KamMar 26FRI

W2-0SandefjordMar 22ELI

Ham-Kam

L1-4TromsoJul 18ELI

D2-2SandefjordJul 12ELI

W2-1IFK GoteborgJun 27FRI

D1-1FredrikstadJun 20FRI

D2-2AalesundMay 29ELI

W2-0LillestromMay 25ELI

L1-2FredrikstadMay 16ELI

W1-0ValerengaMay 8ELI

D1-1Kristiansund BKMay 3ELI

W2-1StartApr 26ELI

W4-0KFUM OsloApr 19ELI

L1-4MoldeApr 12ELI

L1-5BrannApr 6ELI

D2-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMar 26FRI

W2-1VikingMar 14ELI

Squad & Injuries

Sarpsborg

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Ham-Kam

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sarpsborg

Sarpsborg or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ham-Kam

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sarpsborg

Ham-Kam

Squad & Injuries

Sarpsborg

Ham-Kam