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Predictions graded

Sandefjord0Bodo/Glimt3

HT 0–1Sun 26 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 7–12On targetOn target 1–6CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 09:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt are strong favorites but face schedule congestion with a Champions League qualifier looming, raising rotation risk.

The best value is Over 3.5 goals at 1.80, leveraging a high-scoring H2H history and Bodø/Glimt's potent attack, though Sandefjord's new-look defense adds volatility. Avoid short-priced favorites and Both Teams to Score, where the market overestimates the hosts' scoring threat.

Context

Bodø/Glimt's official site confirmed the Champions League Q3 draw against Union Saint-Gilloise on 20 July.
- The away leg is on 4/5 August, with the home leg on 11 August, sandwiching this fixture.
- Bodø/Glimt also play HamKam on 22 July and Lillestrøm on 31 July, making this a congested period.
- Knutsen has rotated in similar situations before, and the club's depth will be tested.
Kristiansen made 61 appearances for Sandefjord and was a regular starter before his sale on 19 July.
- Holten joined on 20 July and Hellan on 16 July, both cleared to play immediately per the club's preview for the previous match.
- The new defenders have not played a competitive match together, facing the league's most potent attack.
- Sandefjord have conceded 1.4 goals per game this season, and this disruption could worsen that record.
Sandefjord's last five results: LDLDL, with only two draws against Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad.
- They have scored only 1.2 goals per game on average this season.
- At home, they have won only two of six matches, with three draws.
- The table shows them on 15 points from 13 matches, with the relegation playoff spot only three points away.
Bodø/Glimt won 1-2 away and 2-0 at home in the 2025 season.
- Sandefjord's 2-1 home win in July 2024 is the only home victory in the last six meetings.
- Four of the last five H2Hs have seen over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in three.
- Bodø/Glimt have scored at least twice in eight of their last ten league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bodo/Glimt

1.41fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's superior form, goal difference, and H2H dominance, combined with Sandefjord's poor recent run and defensive instability, make an away win highly likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

1.11fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90%

0.0ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's consistency and Sandefjord's struggle to win, even at home, make a double chance covering the draw or away win a very safe outcome.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

−11.9ppshort

Bodo/Glimt's away scoring record is strong, but the odds imply a near-certainty that leaves no margin for error given squad rotation risk.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's superior form, goal difference, and H2H dominance, combined with Sandefjord's poor recent run and defensive instability, make an away win highly likely.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 9 of 13 league matches this season, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
- Sandefjord are winless in their last 5 league matches (LDLDL), scoring only 1.2 goals per game on average.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of their last 6 away league matches, with an away record of 4-2-1 and +5 goal difference.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, including both 2025 encounters.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong first-half performances and Sandefjord's tendency to concede early make it probable that the visitors will lead at the break.
- Bodo/Glimt lead at halftime in 73% of their matches this season, averaging 1.1 first-half goals.
- Sandefjord trail at halftime in 47% of their matches, averaging 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Bodo/Glimt led at halftime in 3 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt have scored in the first half in 10 of their last 13 league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's consistency and Sandefjord's struggle to win, even at home, make a double chance covering the draw or away win a very safe outcome.
- Bodo/Glimt have lost only 2 of 13 league matches this season.
- Sandefjord have won only 2 of 6 home matches, with 3 draws.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Sandefjord have won only once.
- Bodo/Glimt's away record is 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's tendency to start strong and control matches, combined with Sandefjord's poor first-half record, supports a halftime/fulltime double for the visitors.
- Bodo/Glimt lead at halftime in 73% of matches and win 69% of matches overall.
- Sandefjord trail at halftime in 47% of matches and lose 46% overall.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Bodo/Glimt led at halftime and won the match twice.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 9 of 13 matches, with 7 of those wins coming after leading at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableBodo/Glimt/Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance50%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's potent attack and Sandefjord's defensive reshuffle, along with historical high-scoring H2H trends, point to a match with at least 3 goals.
- Bodo/Glimt's matches average 3.4 total goals this season (2.6 scored, 0.8 conceded).
- Sandefjord's home matches average 1.83 total goals, but they have conceded 5 in 6 home games, while Bodo/Glimt have scored 14 in 7 away games.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Bodo/Glimt have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Bodo/Glimt are strong favorites, Sandefjord's home scoring record and Bodo/Glimt's occasional away defensive lapses suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- Sandefjord have scored in 5 of their 6 home league matches this season.
- Bodo/Glimt have conceded in 5 of their 7 away league matches, keeping only 2 clean sheets on the road.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 matches.
- Sandefjord average 1.2 goals per game overall, but 1.0 at home; Bodo/Glimt concede 1.29 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Bodo/Glimt's early scoring threat and Sandefjord's vulnerability in the first half suggests a lively opening period with multiple goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded, totaling 1.6 first-half goals per match.
- Sandefjord average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded, totaling 1.3 first-half goals per match.
- In 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, there was at least 1 first-half goal, with 2 matches having over 1.5.
- Bodo/Glimt have scored in the first half in 10 of their last 13 league matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's low home scoring output and Bodo/Glimt's generally solid defense suggest the hosts will struggle to score multiple goals.
- Sandefjord have scored only 6 goals in 6 home matches, averaging 1.0 per game.
- They have failed to score more than 1 goal in 5 of those 6 home matches.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept 2 clean sheets in 7 away matches and concede 1.29 goals per away game.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Sandefjord scored more than 1 goal only once.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSandefjord under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's consistent away scoring record and Sandefjord's defensive instability make it likely the visitors will net at least twice.
- Bodo/Glimt have scored 14 goals in 7 away matches, averaging 2.0 per game.
- They have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- Sandefjord have conceded 5 goals in 6 home matches, but face a much stronger attack here.
- Bodo/Glimt have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBodo/Glimt over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Bodo/Glimt lead early, the second half could open up, but Sandefjord's low scoring may limit goals; still, historical trends favor a higher second-half total.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.5 second-half goals per match (2.6 total - 1.1 first half).
- Sandefjord average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded, but this is against weaker opposition.
- In 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, there were over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Bodo/Glimt's last 5 league matches have seen an average of 1.8 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's away defensive record and Sandefjord's home scoring consistency make a clean sheet for the visitors unlikely.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 away matches this season.
- Sandefjord have scored in 5 of 6 home matches, failing to score only once.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Bodo/Glimt kept a clean sheet only once.
- Sandefjord average 1.0 goals per home match, but have scored against stronger teams like Molde and Rosenborg.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSandefjord to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sandefjord's home scoring record and Bodo/Glimt's away defensive vulnerabilities, a win to nil for the visitors is improbable.
- Bodo/Glimt have won to nil in only 2 of 7 away matches.
- Sandefjord have failed to score in only 1 of 6 home matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Bodo/Glimt won to nil only once.
- Bodo/Glimt concede 1.29 goals per away game on average.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and historical matchups consistently exceed 9.5, though confidence is tempered by potential game state effects if Bodo/Glimt dominate early.
- Bodo/Glimt average 7.3 corners per match, while Sandefjord average 6.0, totaling 13.3 on average.
- In Bodo/Glimt's away matches, they average 6.7 corners, and Sandefjord at home average 6.3, totaling 13.0.
- Recent H2H matches have seen corner counts of 11, 10, 9, and 12 in the last 4 meetings with data.
- Bodo/Glimt's last 5 league matches have averaged 10.6 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 7 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L1-2SandefjordvBodo/GlimtAug 31, 2025ELI

L2-0Bodo/GlimtvSandefjordJul 12, 2025ELI

W2-1SandefjordvBodo/GlimtJul 13, 2024ELI

D1-1Bodo/GlimtvSandefjordMay 29, 2024ELI

L4-3Bodo/GlimtvSandefjordOct 21, 2023ELI

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Sandefjord	13	4	3	6	13-17	15	LDLDL
3	Bodo/Glimt Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	13	9	2	2	31-11	29	WWDWW

14pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sandefjord

L1-2VikingJul 18ELI

D2-2Ham-KamJul 12ELI

L1-2MoldeMay 30ELI

D1-1FredrikstadMay 25ELI

L1-3LillestromMay 16ELI

W2-0Kristiansund BKMay 10ELI

W1-0AalesundMay 3ELI

L1-3TromsoApr 26ELI

D0-0RosenborgApr 18ELI

W1-0BrannApr 12ELI

W2-1KFUM OsloApr 7ELI

D2-2StromsgodsetMar 27FRI

L0-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMar 22ELI

L0-1ValerengaMar 15ELI

W3-2StartMar 8FRI

Bodo/Glimt

W1-0FredrikstadJul 17ELI

W2-0KFUM OsloJul 12ELI

W4-0StartJul 4FRI

W4-1MoldeJun 28FRI

D2-2RosenborgMay 29ELI

W3-1BrannMay 24ELI

W4-1StartMay 20ELI

W5-0TromsoMay 16ELI

L0-1MoldeMay 4ELI

W5-0StartApr 30ELI

W2-0LillestromApr 26ELI

W3-0AalesundApr 18ELI

D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FFApr 15ELI

L0-5VikingApr 11ELI

W3-0Kristiansund BKApr 6ELI

Squad & Injuries

Sandefjord

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Bodo/Glimt

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Bodo/Glimt

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt/Bodo/Glimt

Over 1.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 8 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sandefjord

Sandefjord

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sandefjord

Bodo/Glimt

Squad & Injuries

Sandefjord

Bodo/Glimt