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Predictions graded

Orlando City1Nashville0

HT 0–0Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:46 Predictions graded

Predictions1–811%

Edges0–60%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 11–3On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 08:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Back over 2.5 goals and both teams to score in a match where Orlando's new attack meets Nashville's elite form.

The best value lies in over 4.5 cards at 3.60, driven by Orlando's high foul count and the competitive stakes. Avoid Orlando to win and over 4.5 goals, where the market misprices the probabilities.

Context

Griezmann scored and assisted in a July 8 friendly, showing immediate impact.
- Dike's return on July 17 adds another proven MLS goalscorer.
- Orlando's attack averaged 1.9 goals per game but now has more firepower.
Nashville's away record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, with only 2 goals conceded.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in those 7 away games.
- Orlando have conceded 13 goals in 7 home games, highlighting the defensive contrast.
Orlando's schedule shows a July 22 match in San Jose, just three days before this game.
- Nashville had a home match on July 22, avoiding long travel.
- Fatigue could widen the gap in the second half, where Orlando have conceded 1.1 goals per game.
Nashville won 5-0 in March 2026 and 5-1 in August 2025.
- Orlando won 3-2 at home in September 2025.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five H2H meetings across all competitions.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's elite defensive record and league-leading form give them a clear edge over an inconsistent Orlando side.
- Nashville top of Eastern Conference with 36 points from 15 games (11W-3D-1L), best start in MLS in 25 years.
- Orlando 13th in East with 14 points from 15 games (4W-2D-9L), -21 goal difference.
- Nashville away record: 4W-2D-1L, only 2 goals conceded in 7 away games.
- Orlando home record: 3W-1D-3L, conceding 13 in 7 home games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNashvilleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's consistency and Orlando's struggles make a Nashville win or draw highly probable.
- Nashville lost only 1 of 15 league games this season.
- Orlando lost 9 of 15, including 3 of 7 at home.
- Nashville's away form: unbeaten in 6 of 7 (4W-2D-1L).
- H2H: Nashville unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings (2W-1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or NashvilleEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often start cautiously, with Nashville's away matches frequently level at the break.
- Orlando's first-half results: 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses in last 15.
- Nashville's first-half results: 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses in last 15.
- H2H first halves: 2 draws in last 5 meetings.
- Nashville's away first halves: 2 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Nashville's superior quality and depth could see them pull away, but evidence is limited.
- Nashville has come from behind to win or draw in 3 of 5 matches where they trailed at halftime this season.
- Orlando has failed to win 4 of 7 home games when leading at halftime.
- H2H: In the last meeting, Nashville led at halftime and won.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/NashvilleEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring H2H trend combined with Orlando's leaky defense and new attacking firepower makes over 2.5 goals likely.
- Orlando's last 15 matches averaged 4.4 total goals (1.9 scored, 2.5 conceded), with 12 of 15 seeing over 2.5 goals.
- Nashville's last 15 matches averaged 2.4 total goals (1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded), but H2H vs Orlando has been high-scoring: 5-0, 3-2, 5-1 in last three MLS meetings.
- Orlando's home matches this season average 3.86 total goals (14 scored, 13 conceded in 7 games).
- Intelligence notes Orlando's attack boosted by Griezmann/Dike returns and Nashville's strong form, supporting an open game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orlando's defensive frailties and Nashville's consistent scoring, plus H2H history, point to both teams finding the net.
- Orlando scored in 12 of last 15 matches, conceding in 14 of 15.
- Nashville scored in 11 of last 15, keeping only 5 clean sheets in that span.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (all competitions).
- Orlando's home record: both teams scored in 5 of 7 home games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orlando's tendency for early goals and Nashville's ability to score quickly in H2H matches support over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Orlando's last 15: 1.1 first-half goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game; 73% of matches had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Nashville's last 15: 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded; but H2H first halves have been lively (e.g., 2-0, 1-1, 2-1 in recent meetings).
- Orlando led at halftime in 40% of matches, trailed in 33%, indicating early action.
- Intelligence suggests high intensity from the start due to Orlando's home return and Nashville's title push.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orlando's defensive lapses and Nashville's ability to exploit tired legs should produce second-half goals.
- Orlando's matches average 2.2 second-half goals (1.1 scored, 1.1 conceded in last 15).
- Nashville's matches average 1.3 second-half goals (0.7 scored, 0.6 conceded), but H2H second halves have seen multiple goals (e.g., 3 goals in last meeting's second half).
- Orlando's home second halves: 1.7 goals on average.
- Fatigue factor: Orlando played midweek away, potentially leading to more goals late.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede corners at a high rate, and H2H history shows elevated corner counts.
- Orlando's matches average 9.3 corners (4.3 for, 5.0 against) in last 15.
- Nashville's matches average 9.8 corners (4.9 for, 4.9 against) in last 15.
- H2H: Last three MLS meetings averaged 11.3 corners (9, 12, 13).
- Orlando's home matches average 10.1 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orlando's high card count and the competitive context should push total cards over 4.5.
- Orlando averages 2.6 yellow cards per game, opponents 2.1; total 4.7 cards per match.
- Nashville averages 1.7 yellow cards per game, opponents 1.5; total 3.2 cards per match.
- H2H: Last three MLS meetings saw 5, 4, and 3 cards, averaging 4.0.
- High-stakes match with Orlando fighting for playoffs and Nashville for Shield, likely increasing intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L5-0Nashville SCvOrlando City SCMar 21, 2026MAJ

D2-2Orlando City SCvNashville SCFeb 7, 2026FRI

L3-2Orlando City SCvNashville SCSep 20, 2025MAJ

L5-1Nashville SCvOrlando City SCAug 24, 2025MAJ

W2-3Orlando City SCvNashville SCMay 21, 2025US

5 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Orlando City	15	4	2	9	23-44	14	LDWLW
1	Nashville Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	15	11	3	1	32-11	36	WWWWD

22pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Orlando City

L2-6FC CincinnatiMay 23MAJ

W4-1Atlanta United FCMay 19US

D1-1Atlanta United FCMay 16MAJ

W4-3Philadelphia UnionMay 13MAJ

L0-2CF MontrealMay 9MAJ

W4-3Inter MiamiMay 2MAJ

W4-3New England RevolutionApr 29US

L2-3DC UnitedApr 25MAJ

W4-1CharlotteApr 22MAJ

L0-1Houston DynamoApr 18MAJ

W1-0NaplesApr 15US

D1-1Columbus CrewApr 12MAJ

L0-6Los Angeles FCApr 5MAJ

L0-5Nashville SCMar 21MAJ

W2-1CF MontrealMar 14MAJ

Nashville

W1-0Atlanta United FCJul 18MAJ

W2-1New York City FCMay 24MAJ

W3-2Los Angeles FCMay 18MAJ

W3-0New England RevolutionMay 13MAJ

D2-2DC UnitedMay 10MAJ

L0-1Tigres UANLMay 6CON

D0-0Philadelphia UnionMay 2MAJ

L0-1Tigres UANLApr 29CON

W4-2CharlotteApr 26MAJ

W2-0Atlanta United FCApr 18MAJ

W1-0Club AmericaApr 15CON

W2-1CharlotteApr 11MAJ

D0-0Club AmericaApr 8CON

L0-1Chicago FireApr 5MAJ

W5-0Orlando City SCMar 21MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Orlando City

31 available

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Nashville

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Draw or Nashville

Over 4.5

Nashville

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 4.5

Over 2.5

Orlando City

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Orlando City

Nashville

Squad & Injuries

Orlando City

Nashville