Londrina11 – 4Gremio Novorizontino SP4

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both sides show strong draw tendencies in their respective home/away splits, and Londrina's rebuilding phase under Micale reduces their home edge, while Novorizontino's away resilience makes a stalemate the most likely single outcome.

• Londrina home record: 3W-3D-3L (9 matches, 14 GF, 10 GA) – balanced with no clear dominance.
• Novorizontino away record: 3W-4D-3L (10 matches, 14 GF, 8 GA) – solid defensively, many draws.
• Last 5 H2H: 2 away wins, 1 home win, 1 draw – no consistent home advantage; 2026 reverse fixture was 3-1 Londrina away.
• Londrina last 5 form: D-D-W-D-W (unbeaten, but 3 draws); Novorizontino last 5: L-L-L-W-W (two recent wins after three losses).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The high frequency of drawn first halves for both sides, combined with low first-half scoring, makes a draw at the break the most likely outcome.

• Londrina half-time results: 20% leading, 47% trailing, 33% drawing – draws are most common single outcome.
• Novorizontino half-time results: 27% leading, 20% trailing, 53% drawing – draws dominate.
• Both teams average first-half goal difference near zero (Londrina -0.3, Novorizontino +0.1).
• In 4 of last 5 H2H, half-time result was a draw.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have moderate scoring rates, especially in the first half, and Novorizontino's solid away defense (0.8 GA/game) points to a low-scoring affair, reinforced by H2H trends.

• Londrina home matches: 14 GF, 10 GA in 9 games – avg 2.67 total goals, but 5 of 9 home games had under 2.5 goals.
• Novorizontino away matches: 14 GF, 8 GA in 10 games – avg 2.2 total goals; 7 of 10 away games had under 2.5 goals.
• Both teams average first-half goals below 0.7 (Londrina 0.4, Novorizontino 0.6), suggesting slow starts.
• H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams are slow starters with low first-half scoring averages, making it highly probable that the first half sees at most one goal.

• Londrina first-half goals: 0.4 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.7 per game – avg 1.1 total first-half goals.
• Novorizontino first-half goals: 0.6 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per game – avg 1.1 total first-half goals.
• Londrina led at half-time in only 20% of matches; Novorizontino led in 27%.
• Last 5 H2H: only 1 match had over 1.5 first-half goals (2026 reverse fixture had 0-0 at HT).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Combined card averages and recent match data suggest a moderately high likelihood of at least 5 cards, driven by Londrina's disciplinary record and the competitive nature of the fixture.

• Londrina average yellow cards: 2.7 per game; opponent average: 2.5 – total avg 5.2.
• Novorizontino average yellow cards: 2.0 per game; opponent average: 2.3 – total avg 4.3.
• Londrina home matches: 5 of last 6 had over 4.5 cards.
• Novorizontino away matches: 4 of last 6 had over 4.5 cards.