USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

New York Cosmos1AC Boise2

HT 0–0Sat 25 Jul 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jul 2026, 16:13 · Europe/Bucharest

AC Boise's playoff push and New York Cosmos' defensive woes make an away win or draw the clear expected outcome, though short odds offer little value.

The Both Teams to Score market presents a marginal edge, while any bet on Cosmos to lead at halftime or win outright should be avoided given their dire first-half and overall form.

Context

USL League One's July 20 Talking Points called the next three matches, starting with New York Cosmos, a 'phenomenal opportunity' for Boise.
- Boise are 6th with 27 points, firmly in the playoff picture, while Cosmos are last with 11 points.
- Boise have won 3 of their last 5 league matches, showing strong form heading into this stretch.
Cosmos lost 0-3 to Greenville Triumph, 1-4 to Hartford Athletic, and 0-3 to Brooklyn in their last three home league matches.
- Over their last 15 matches, Cosmos have conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game.
- Cosmos have kept only one clean sheet in their last 15 outings across all competitions.
Yaro joined Boise on June 5 for the remainder of the 2026 season.
- Boise head coach Nate Miller praised Yaro's pace, passing, and leadership as a fit for their high defensive line.
- Boise have conceded 1.5 goals per game on average, and Yaro's addition could improve that record against a Cosmos side scoring only 0.9 goals per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

AC Boise

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Boise are in the playoff race and face a Cosmos side that has lost their last 3 home league matches, conceding heavily.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or AC Boise

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Cosmos have won only 3 of 16 league matches this season, making a home win highly unlikely.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or AC Boise

1.21fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Cosmos have led at halftime in only 1 of their last 15 matches, while Boise have trailed at HT in only 4 of 15.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Cosmos concede 1.3 first-half goals on average and have trailed at halftime in 67% of recent matches, making a first-half goal highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boise have a clear motivation edge in the playoff race and face a Cosmos side in poor form, making an away win the most likely result.
- AC Boise rank 6th with 27 pts, while New York Cosmos are last (17th) with 11 pts.
- Boise's away record: 2W-2D-3L, Cosmos' home record: 3W-2D-3L, but Cosmos have lost their last 3 home league matches.
- Cosmos have conceded 2.4 goals per game on average over last 15, Boise score 1.5 per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAC BoiseEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Cosmos' overall struggles and Boise's stronger season, it's highly unlikely Cosmos win; Boise or draw covers the vast majority of outcomes.
- Cosmos have won only 3 of 16 league matches this season.
- Boise have lost only 6 of 17 matches, with 8 wins.
- Cosmos have failed to win any of their last 5 home matches across all competitions (0W-1D-4L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AC BoiseEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boise's ability to start strong and Cosmos' poor first halves give Boise a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Cosmos have trailed at halftime in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Boise have led at halftime in 4 of their last 15, with 7 draws.
- Cosmos average 0.1 first-half goals scored vs 1.3 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAC BoiseEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boise's superior fitness and motivation should see them edge the second half as Cosmos tire.
- Cosmos have lost the second half in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Boise have won the second half in 6 of their last 15.
- Cosmos' second-half goal difference is -1.1 on average (2.4 conceded minus 0.9 scored, with 1.3 first-half conceded).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableAC BoiseEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Boise win is a plausible scenario given Boise's second-half strength and Cosmos' fragility.
- Boise have drawn at halftime in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- Cosmos have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 15.
- Boise have won 8 of 17 matches this season, often coming from behind or drawing at half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/AC BoiseEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the dominance to win both halves consistently, making it very unlikely.
- Cosmos have not won both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- Boise have won both halves only once in their last 15 (vs Richmond Kickers).
- Only 2 of Boise's 8 wins this season came with winning both halves.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos rarely lead at halftime, so Boise or draw is the safe first-half double chance.
- Cosmos have led at halftime in only 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Boise have trailed at halftime in only 4 of their last 15.
- Cosmos' first-half record: 1W-3D-11L in last 15.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AC BoiseEstimated chance75%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' defensive fragility combined with Boise's consistent scoring suggests a match with at least 3 total goals.
- Cosmos concede 2.4 goals per game on average over last 15; Boise concede 1.5.
- Cosmos' last 5 home matches: 3 goals conceded vs Greenville, 4 vs Hartford, 3 vs Brooklyn, 2 vs Santos Laguna, 2 vs Forward Madison.
- Boise's last 5 away matches: scored 1, 1, 1, 2, 1 goals; conceded 5, 2, 2, 1, 3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and Cosmos' leaky defense makes it likely Boise will score, while Cosmos should find the net at home.
- Cosmos have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Boise have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Cosmos have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' tendency to concede early, especially at home, makes a first-half goal likely.
- Cosmos concede 1.3 first-half goals on average; Boise concede 0.5.
- Cosmos have trailed at halftime in 67% of their last 15 matches.
- Boise have led at halftime in 27% and drawn in 46% of their last 15.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cosmos' inability to score early makes it unlikely both teams will score in the first half.
- Cosmos average 0.1 first-half goals scored, Boise average 0.5.
- Cosmos have scored a first-half goal in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Boise have conceded a first-half goal in 8 of their last 15, but Cosmos' attack is too weak.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league averages and match context suggesting an open game with corners.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Typical USL League One matches average around 9-10 corners.
- Boise's attacking style and Cosmos' defensive pressure could lead to more corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

League Table

USL League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	New York Cosmos	16	3	2	11	17-36	11	LDWLL
6	AC Boise Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	17	8	3	6	25-24	27	WWLWL

16pt gap between teams

Recent Form

New York Cosmos

L0-3Westchester SCJul 22USL

D0-0Corpus ChristiJul 18USL

W1-0NaplesJul 8USL

L0-3Greenville TriumphJul 4USL

L1-2Santos LagunaJun 28FRI

L1-3Forward MadisonJun 21USL

L1-3One KnoxvilleJun 13USL

L1-4Hartford AthleticJun 6USL

L1-2Sarasota ParadiseMay 30USL

L1-2Union OmahaMay 27USL

L0-4AltaMay 24USL

W3-2Westchester SCMay 15USL

L1-3Portland Hearts of PineMay 2USL

L0-3BrooklynApr 25USL

D2-2Forward MadisonApr 19USL

AC Boise

W2-1Portland Hearts of PineJul 18USL

W2-0Sacramento RepublicJul 12USL

W1-0Westchester SCJul 5USL

L1-2One KnoxvilleJul 3USL

W1-0Union OmahaJun 21USL

L1-5Forward MadisonJun 14USL

W2-1Richmond KickersJun 11USL

L1-2Spokane VelocityJun 7USL

D2-2Richmond KickersMay 30USL

L0-2Sarasota ParadiseMay 28USL

L1-3Fort WayneMay 24USL

W4-3Monterey BayMay 17USL

W2-0NaplesMay 14USL

L0-1Charlotte IndependenceMay 6USL

W2-1Chattanooga Red WolvesMay 3USL

Squad & Injuries

New York Cosmos

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

AC Boise

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

AC Boise

Draw or AC Boise

Draw or AC Boise

Over 0.5

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

New York Cosmos

New York Cosmos at half-time / New York Cosmos at full-time

New York Cosmos

League Table

Recent Form

New York Cosmos

AC Boise

Squad & Injuries

New York Cosmos

AC Boise