Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Botafogo SP4Juventude2

HT 2–0Fri 24 Jul 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions1–811%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 13–15On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 4–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 16:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude's league-best defense and promotion push make them favorites, but Botafogo SP's compact style points to a low-scoring game.

Top value lies in first-half under 0.5 goals (2.38, 23-point edge) and double chance Draw or Juventude (1.57, 11-point edge). The match winner on Juventude at 3.10 also offers a 13-point edge for those willing to accept the draw risk.

Context

Juventude's official site stated the team remains in the G6 after recent results.
- The 2026 format promotes only the top two automatically, with 3rd-6th entering playoffs, making G6 positioning critical.
- Juventude have won four of their last five league matches, showing strong form.
Tencati praised the team's tactical delivery after a recent draw.
- Midfielder Rafael Gava highlighted strong marking and efficiency in chances.
- Botafogo SP have kept three clean sheets in their last six home matches.
Juventude have conceded 0.44 goals per game, the best in Serie B.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 18 league matches.
- In their last six league matches, five have seen under 2.5 goals.
Juventude won 2-0 away in the last H2H (2023 Serie B).
- In 13 meetings, there have been 7 draws, but Juventude have lost only once in the last five.
- At Botafogo SP's ground, Juventude lead 2 wins to 1 with 2 draws.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's strong promotion-chasing form and higher league position, combined with Botafogo SP's lower-table struggles, give the visitors a clear edge, reinforced by their recent away win in this fixture.
- Juventude are 2nd in Serie B with 32 points from 18 matches, firmly in the promotion playoff zone (G6).
- Botafogo SP are 15th with 21 points, only 2 points above the relegation line.
- Juventude have won 4 of their last 5 league matches (WWDWW), while Botafogo SP have 1 win in their last 5 (DDWLW).
- In the most recent H2H meeting (2023), Juventude won 2-0 away at Botafogo SP.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJuventudeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's low loss rate and Botafogo SP's poor home win rate, combined with a draw-heavy H2H, make a Juventude win or draw highly probable.
- Juventude have lost only 4 of 18 league matches this season.
- Botafogo SP have won only 3 of 8 home matches.
- H2H history shows 7 draws in 13 meetings, with Juventude unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 (W2 D2).
- Juventude's away record is modest (W2 D3 L3), but they have lost only 3 of 8 away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or JuventudeEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of first-half draws for both sides, especially in Botafogo SP's home games, makes a halftime stalemate the most likely outcome.
- Botafogo SP have drawn 7 of 18 first halves this season, and led only 3 times.
- Juventude have drawn 6 of 18 first halves, with 6 leads and 6 deficits.
- In Botafogo SP's last 5 home matches, 4 were drawn at halftime.
- Juventude's last 5 away matches: 3 were drawn at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Juventude win is a plausible scenario given Botafogo SP's tendency to fade and Juventude's second-half strength, though the exact sequence carries lower confidence.
- Botafogo SP have drawn at halftime in 7 of 18 matches, but lost the second half in 5 of those.
- Juventude have won the second half in 8 of 18 matches, including 3 of 8 away.
- In the last H2H meeting, the score was 0-0 at halftime and Juventude won 2-0.
- Juventude's strong second-half performance is reflected in their +11 goal difference.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / JuventudeEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's elite defensive record and Botafogo SP's modest scoring output strongly point to a low-scoring affair, consistent with recent trends for both teams.
- Juventude have conceded only 8 goals in 18 league matches (0.44 per game), the best defense in Serie B.
- Botafogo SP average 0.9 goals scored per game overall and 1.63 at home, but face the league's stingiest defense.
- In 5 of Juventude's last 6 league matches, total goals were under 2.5.
- Botafogo SP's last 5 home matches have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of them.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's exceptional clean sheet rate and Botafogo SP's inconsistent scoring suggest at least one team will fail to score, likely the home side.
- Juventude have kept 12 clean sheets in 18 league matches (67%).
- Botafogo SP have failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches, including against mid-table sides.
- In Juventude's last 6 league matches, both teams scored in only 2.
- Botafogo SP have scored in 5 of their last 6 home matches, but Juventude's away defensive record is strong (7 conceded in 8 away games).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's league-best defense and Botafogo SP's low scoring output make a Juventude clean sheet a likely outcome.
- Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 12 of 18 league matches (67%).
- Botafogo SP have failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Juventude have conceded only 7 goals in 8 away matches, keeping 3 clean sheets.
- Botafogo SP average only 0.9 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBotafogo SP not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, especially Botafogo SP at home, making a goalless first half highly probable.
- Botafogo SP average only 0.3 first-half goals per game, and have led at halftime in just 20% of matches.
- Juventude average 0.5 first-half goals per game, but on the road they have scored only 5 goals in 8 away matches total.
- In Botafogo SP's last 5 home matches, 4 were 0-0 at halftime.
- Juventude's last 5 away matches: 3 were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages and recent trends for both teams suggest a total under 9.5 corners is likely in what is expected to be a tight, low-possession battle.
- Botafogo SP average 6.0 corners per game, Juventude average 4.7.
- In Botafogo SP's last 5 home matches, total corners averaged 8.8.
- Juventude's last 5 away matches averaged 7.6 total corners.
- Both teams' recent matches have trended toward lower corner counts, with Botafogo SP's last 3 home games averaging 8.3 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary averages and the high-stakes nature of the match point to a card count exceeding 4.5, with both teams likely to accumulate bookings.
- Botafogo SP average 2.5 yellow cards per game, Juventude average 2.2.
- In Botafogo SP's last 5 home matches, total cards averaged 5.2.
- Juventude's last 5 away matches averaged 5.0 total cards.
- The match context (promotion stakes for Juventude, relegation pressure for Botafogo SP) suggests a physical, high-foul encounter.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

L0-2Botafogo SPvJuventudeJul 29, 2023SER

W1-2JuventudevBotafogo SPApr 15, 2023SER

D1-1Botafogo SPvJuventudeDec 2, 2020SER

D0-0JuventudevBotafogo SPAug 29, 2020SER

D0-0JuventudevBotafogo SPAug 28, 2016SER

Botafogo SP: 2 clean sheetsJuventude: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Botafogo SP	18	5	6	7	20-18	21	DDWLW
2	Juventude Promotion	18	9	5	4	19-8	32	WWDWW

11pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Botafogo SP

D0-0LondrinaJul 18SER

D3-3Sport RecifeJul 10SER

W3-1AvaiJul 6SER

L0-1CRBJun 30SER

W1-0CearaJun 20SER

W2-1Operario-PRJun 14SER

L0-1Vila NovaJun 8SER

D0-0Ponte PretaJun 1SER

L1-2Athletic ClubMay 25SER

L0-1GoiasMay 16SER

L0-1NovorizontinoMay 10SER

D1-1Nautico RecifeMay 2SER

D1-1CuiabaApr 23SER

D1-1Atletico GoianienseApr 19SER

L0-1CriciumaApr 10SER

Juventude

W2-0CuiabaJul 17SER

W1-0Vila NovaJul 10SER

D0-0Nautico RecifeJul 5SER

W2-0CearaJun 28SER

W1-0São BernardoJun 21SER

W3-0Ponte PretaJun 14SER

L1-2Operario-PRJun 5SER

W3-0America MineiroMay 30SER

L0-1Sport RecifeMay 23SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 17SER

W3-1Sao PauloMay 13COP

D0-0CriciumaMay 10SER

W2-1TombenseMay 7COP

D0-0Atletico GoianienseMay 3SER

L2-3CianorteApr 30COP

Squad & Injuries

Botafogo SP

36 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Juventude

55 available

Attackers11

Midfielders19

Defenders20

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Juventude

Juventude

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Botafogo SP not to score

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Botafogo SP

Juventude

Squad & Injuries

Botafogo SP

Juventude