Stjarnan11 – 0Ilves0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Ilves' coaching-change uplift and European prioritization give them a slight edge, while Stjarnan's poor home form and defensive vulnerabilities make an away win plausible.

• Ilves have won 3 of their last 5 matches, including a 3-1 European win under new coach Camilo Speranza.
• Stjarnan have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches in all competitions.
• Ilves' away form is mixed but they have a recent 4-0 cup win and a 2-2 draw at HJK Helsinki.
• Stjarnan's home European form: 1 win, 1 draw in last 2 (both vs Vikingur Gota).

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIlvesEstimated chance42%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Stjarnan's home struggles and Ilves' solid away form, combined with the motivational edge from the coaching change, make a Stjarnan win unlikely, supporting a double chance for Ilves or draw.

• Stjarnan have won only 2 of their last 8 home matches across all competitions.
• Ilves have lost only 2 of their last 8 away matches in all competitions.
• Stjarnan's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
• Ilves' last 5 matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.

BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or IlvesEstimated chance65%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Ilves' recent first-half performances under Speranza show early aggression, while Stjarnan often start slowly at home, giving Ilves a slight edge to lead at the break.

• Stjarnan led at half-time in only 33% of their last 15 matches, trailing in 33%.
• Ilves led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches, trailing in 40%.
• In Stjarnan's last 5 home matches, they led at half-time only once.
• Ilves' last 5 away matches: led at half-time twice, including a 4-0 half-time lead in a cup game.

BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostIlvesEstimated chance38%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams consistently produce high-scoring games, with Stjarnan's defense leaking goals and Ilves showing attacking intent under new coach Camilo Speranza, making Over 2.5 goals highly likely.

• Stjarnan's last 15 matches averaged 4.0 total goals (1.9 scored, 2.1 conceded).
• Ilves' last 15 matches averaged 3.6 total goals (2.1 scored, 1.5 conceded).
• In Stjarnan's last 5 matches, 4 had over 2.5 goals.
• Ilves' last 5 matches saw 3 with over 2.5 goals, including a 3-1 win and a 3-4 loss.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Stjarnan's leaky defense and Ilves' consistent scoring record, combined with the high-stakes knockout context, strongly point to both teams finding the net.

• Stjarnan scored in 13 of their last 15 matches, conceding in 14.
• Ilves scored in 12 of their last 15 matches, conceding in 11.
• Stjarnan's last 5 matches: both teams scored in 4.
• Ilves' last 5 matches: both teams scored in 3.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to concede early, with Stjarnan's high first-half goal averages and Ilves' capability to score quickly under the new coach, making Over 1.5 first-half goals a strong possibility.

• Stjarnan's last 15 matches: 1.1 first-half goals scored, 1.0 conceded, averaging 2.1 total first-half goals.
• Ilves' last 15 matches: 0.9 first-half goals scored, 1.1 conceded, averaging 2.0 total first-half goals.
• In Stjarnan's last 5 matches, 3 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
• Ilves' last 5 matches: 2 had over 1.5 first-half goals, including a 4-0 half-time lead in a 5-0 win.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to concede late, and the knockout pressure often leads to more open play in the second half, supporting Over 1.5 second-half goals.

• Stjarnan's last 15 matches: second-half goals average 1.9 (total goals minus first-half goals).
• Ilves' last 15 matches: second-half goals average 1.6.
• Stjarnan's last 5 matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
• Ilves' last 5 matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.