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Predictions graded

San Jose Earthquakes0Orlando City4

HT 0–2Thu 23 Jul 2026, 02:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 11–15On targetOn target 7–8CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 09:02 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest betting edge is Over 3.5 goals at 1.73, with a 14-point value gap driven by both teams' high-scoring trends and defensive leaks.

Avoid Over 2.5 at 1.25 and Double Chance San Jose or Draw at 1.17, as the market has overpriced these outcomes. Orlando's new signings add volatility, but goals remain the most probable outcome.

Context

Orlando's official technical-staff page lists Martín Perelman as Interim Head Coach and Manuel Goldberg as Interim Assistant Coach.
- Interim setups often lead to unpredictable lineups and in-game adjustments, especially after a long break.
Griezmann was officially introduced on July 7 and scored plus assisted in a July 8 friendly.
- Dike was re-signed on July 17, adding another proven MLS goalscorer to the squad.
The official announcement says the move is pending his International Transfer Certificate and P-1 visa.
- Without Jovanovic, San Jose's attack lacks a new dimension that the market might have priced in.
San Jose host LA Galaxy on July 25 in the California Clasico.
- Orlando return home to face Nashville on July 25.
- New or returning players like Griezmann and Dike may have their minutes managed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Despite H2H clean-sheet pattern, current form shows both teams consistently scoring and conceding, making BTTS likely.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

San Jose's strong home form (W4 D1 L1 in last 6 at home) and Orlando's poor away record (W1 D2 L3 in last 6 away) support a home/draw double chance, but odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

1.15fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

San Jose led or drew at halftime in 80% of recent matches and 6 of 7 at home, but the odds are heavily juiced, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Jose's home form and coaching continuity give them a slight edge, but Orlando's attacking upgrades and restart unpredictability keep confidence low.
- San Jose won 7 of last 15 matches (47%), including 4 of last 5 at home.
- Orlando won 6 of last 15 (40%), but lost 4 of last 6 away matches.
- San Jose averaged 2.3 goals per game vs Orlando's 1.9; home advantage and continuity under Bruce Arena favor San Jose.
- Orlando's interim coach and new signings introduce tactical volatility.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's strong home form and Orlando's poor away record make a home win or draw the most probable outcome, supported by structural home/away edge.
- San Jose lost only 1 of last 5 home matches (W4 D1).
- Orlando lost 4 of last 6 away matches, with only 1 win.
- San Jose's home form (2.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded) suggests they are hard to beat at home.
- Orlando's away defensive record (2.5 goals conceded per game) makes an away win unlikely.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSan Jose Earthquakes or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Jose's tendency to start strong at home gives them a slight first-half edge, but Orlando's new attacking options make this a low-confidence call.
- San Jose led at halftime in 47% of last 15 matches; Orlando led in 40%.
- San Jose's first-half goal difference: +0.4 per game; Orlando's: 0.0.
- At home, San Jose led at halftime in 5 of last 7 matches with available data.
- Orlando trailed at halftime in 33% of matches, but new signings could change early dynamics.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Jose's superior second-half performance, especially at home, against Orlando's leaky defense makes them favorites to win the second half.
- San Jose's second-half record in last 15: W7 D5 L3; Orlando's: W4 D4 L7.
- San Jose outscored opponents 1.2 to 0.7 in second halves; Orlando was outscored 0.8 to 1.4.
- Orlando's second-half defensive record is poor, conceding 1.4 goals per game.
- San Jose's home second-half performance is strong, with only 1 loss in last 7 home second halves.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Jose's strong home starts and Orlando's away struggles create a plausible HT/FT double, but the low base rate and restart volatility keep probability low.
- San Jose led at halftime and won full time in 5 of last 15 matches (33%).
- Orlando lost both halves in 3 of last 15 matches (20%).
- San Jose's home form: led at half and won in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Orlando's away form: trailed at half and lost in 3 of last 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableSan Jose Earthquakes / San Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While San Jose has shown the ability to dominate halves at home, winning both halves is rare, and Orlando's new attacking threats reduce confidence.
- San Jose won both halves in 3 of last 15 matches (20%).
- Orlando lost both halves in 3 of last 15 matches (20%).
- San Jose's home matches: won both halves in 2 of last 7 with available data.
- Orlando's away matches: lost both halves in 2 of last 6.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's strong first-half home form and Orlando's inconsistent starts make a home lead or draw at halftime highly probable.
- San Jose led or drew at halftime in 80% of last 15 matches (12 of 15).
- Orlando trailed at halftime in 33% of matches, but drew in 27%.
- At home, San Jose led or drew at halftime in 6 of last 7 matches with data.
- Orlando's away first-half record: led in 2, drew in 2, lost in 2 of last 6.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSan Jose Earthquakes or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show strong Over 2.5 trends in recent form, and Orlando's defensive fragility (2.5 goals conceded per game) combined with San Jose's attacking output (2.3 goals per game) makes a high-scoring game likely.
- San Jose's last 15 matches averaged 3.6 total goals (2.3 for, 1.3 against); 11 of 15 saw Over 2.5.
- Orlando's last 15 matches averaged 4.4 total goals (1.9 for, 2.5 against); 12 of 15 saw Over 2.5.
- In the last 5 matches, San Jose's games averaged 3.8 goals, Orlando's 4.6 goals.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had Over 2.5, including a 5-0 and 3-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite H2H history of clean sheets, current form shows both teams consistently scoring and conceding, making BTTS a strong possibility in this restart match.
- San Jose scored in 13 of last 15 matches; Orlando scored in 11 of last 15.
- Orlando conceded in 13 of last 15 matches; San Jose conceded in 10 of last 15.
- Both teams scored in 9 of San Jose's last 15 and 10 of Orlando's last 15.
- H2H: Both teams scored in only 1 of last 5 meetings, but current form overrides historical clean-sheet pattern.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, the first half is likely to see at least two goals.
- San Jose averaged 1.1 first-half goals in last 15; Orlando also averaged 1.1.
- San Jose led at halftime in 47% of matches; Orlando led in 40%.
- In last 5 matches, San Jose's first halves averaged 1.4 goals, Orlando's 1.8.
- Both teams conceded first-half goals in over 60% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orlando's defensive struggles intensify in second halves, and San Jose's ability to score late makes Over 1.5 second-half goals a strong bet.
- San Jose's second-half goal difference in last 15: +0.5 per game (1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded).
- Orlando's second-half goal difference: -0.6 per game (0.8 scored, 1.4 conceded).
- In last 5 matches, San Jose's second halves averaged 1.8 goals, Orlando's 2.2.
- Orlando conceded 1.4 second-half goals per game, suggesting late goals are common.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half scoring rates and concede early, making it likely that both will find the net before halftime.
- San Jose scored in the first half in 12 of last 15 matches; Orlando in 11 of 15.
- Both teams scored in the first half in 7 of San Jose's last 15 and 8 of Orlando's last 15.
- In last 5 matches, both teams scored in the first half in 3 of San Jose's and 3 of Orlando's games.
- Orlando's first-half goals conceded average is 1.1, matching San Jose's first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' average corner counts sum to over 10, and recent matches show consistent high totals, supporting Over 9.5 corners.
- San Jose averaged 6.4 corners per game in last 15; Orlando averaged 4.3.
- Combined average corners per game: 10.7.
- In last 5 matches with corner data, San Jose's games averaged 11.2 corners, Orlando's 10.4.
- H2H: Corner data unavailable, but both teams' styles suggest high corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average exceeds 4.5, and restart matches often feature higher discipline issues, making Over 4.5 cards a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- San Jose averaged 2.6 yellow cards per game in last 15; Orlando also averaged 2.6.
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.2 per game.
- In last 5 matches with card data, San Jose's games averaged 5.2 cards, Orlando's 5.0.
- No red cards in recent matches, but restart intensity could increase bookings.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L0-1San Jose EarthquakesvOrlando City SCMay 19, 2024MAJ

L5-0Orlando City SCvSan Jose EarthquakesJun 22, 2021MAJ

W3-0San Jose EarthquakesvOrlando City SCSep 1, 2019MAJ

L3-2Orlando City SCvSan Jose EarthquakesApr 21, 2018MAJ

D1-1San Jose EarthquakesvOrlando City SCMay 18, 2017MAJ

Orlando City: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

San Jose Earthquakes

L1-2Club TijuanaJul 4FRI

W3-1Portland TimbersMay 24MAJ

L0-2Colorado RapidsMay 21US

L2-3FC DallasMay 17MAJ

L2-3Seattle SoundersMay 14MAJ

D1-1Vancouver WhitecapsMay 10MAJ

D1-1Toronto FCMay 2MAJ

W4-2Minnesota United FCApr 29US

W3-2St. Louis CityApr 26MAJ

W5-1AustinApr 23MAJ

W4-1Los Angeles FCApr 19MAJ

W2-0Phoenix RisingApr 16US

W3-1Sporting Kansas CityApr 12MAJ

W3-0San DiegoApr 5MAJ

W1-0Vancouver WhitecapsMar 22MAJ

Orlando City

L2-6FC CincinnatiMay 23MAJ

W4-1Atlanta United FCMay 19US

D1-1Atlanta United FCMay 16MAJ

W4-3Philadelphia UnionMay 13MAJ

L0-2CF MontrealMay 9MAJ

W4-3Inter MiamiMay 2MAJ

W4-3New England RevolutionApr 29US

L2-3DC UnitedApr 25MAJ

W4-1CharlotteApr 22MAJ

L0-1Houston DynamoApr 18MAJ

W1-0NaplesApr 15US

D1-1Columbus CrewApr 12MAJ

L0-6Los Angeles FCApr 5MAJ

L0-5Nashville SCMar 21MAJ

W2-1CF MontrealMar 14MAJ

Squad & Injuries

San Jose Earthquakes

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Orlando City

31 available

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

Yes

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

San Jose Earthquakes

Orlando City

Squad & Injuries

San Jose Earthquakes

Orlando City