Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Nautico PE2Londrina1

HT 1–0Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 8–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 01:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Fade the historical H2H: Londrina’s attack has been gutted by the loss of Bruno Santos, while Náutico’s home games are chronically low-scoring.

The best value lies in under 2.5 goals (1.78) and the draw (3.60), with a goalless first half also offering a solid edge.

Context

Bruno Santos scored seven goals in four matches before his move to Mirassol.
- Iago Teles and André Luiz also departed during the July window.
- A 14 July analysis noted the reshaped side struggled to create clear chances after drawing level.
Becker admitted the delays 'take away his sleep' but insisted players were still committed.
- The admission came just days before this match, adding off-field tension.
- Náutico have lost four of their last five matches, suggesting on-pitch struggles may be compounded by financial issues.
Londrina won 2-1 in July 2022, 2-0 in April 2022, and 2-1 in September 2021 at Náutico.
- The overall H2H record is 11 wins for Londrina to 5 for Náutico in 21 meetings.
- Náutico won the most recent meeting 2-0 away in August 2025, but that was in Série C.
Náutico have scored only 6 goals in 8 home matches (0.75 per game).
- They have kept three home clean sheets but also failed to score in three home games.
- Four of their last five home matches have seen under 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form (Nautico LLDLL, Londrina DDWDW but with key attacking exits) and have similar goal averages, making a low-scoring draw likely given Nautico's tight home matches and Londrina's weakened attack.
- Nautico PE home record: 3W-1D-4L, goals 6:6 in 8 matches, low-scoring home games
- Londrina away record: 2W-2D-5L, goals 11:15 in 9 matches, conceding 1.67 per away game
- Last 5 H2H: 2 away wins for each, 1 home win, no draws, but recent form suggests stalemate
- Both teams have 1.3 goals scored and conceded on average over last 15 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nautico's home advantage and Londrina's attacking disruption from key departures make a home win or draw the safer outcome, with Nautico likely to avoid defeat against a weakened Londrina side.
- Nautico PE home: 3W-1D-4L, but 4 of 8 home games had under 2.5 goals
- Londrina away: only 2 wins in 9, lost 5, and missing top scorer Bruno Santos
- Nautico added Jean Carlos and Kauã Maranhão in July window, boosting attack
- Londrina's last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L, scored 5 conceded 8
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNautico PE or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The symmetrical first-half stats and high probability of a goalless first half make a draw at the break the most likely outcome, with neither side showing early dominance.
- Nautico home: led at half-time in only 20% of matches, trailed in 47%
- Londrina away: led at half-time in 20%, trailed in 47%
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at half-time, 2 away leads
- Both teams average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded over last 15 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a common outcome, the combination of low-scoring tendencies and evenly matched struggling sides increases the chance of a stalemate at both intervals, though confidence remains low due to limited historical precedent.
- Nautico home: 1 draw at half-time and full-time in 8 home games
- Londrina away: 2 draws at half-time and full-time in 9 away games
- Last 5 H2H: no draw/draw results
- Both teams have drawn 3 of last 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing balanced second-half performances and a high likelihood of a low-scoring match, a drawn second half is a reasonable outcome, though the historical H2H suggests more decisive results.
- Nautico home: second-half record 2W-2D-4L, but 4 draws in last 15 overall
- Londrina away: second-half record 2W-3D-4L, 5 draws in last 15 overall
- Last 5 H2H: second-half results 2 away wins, 2 home wins, 1 draw
- Both teams have similar second-half goal differences: Nautico -0.1, Londrina -0.1 over last 15
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nautico's home matches are consistently low-scoring (1.5 total goals on average), and Londrina's attack is weakened by the loss of Bruno Santos, making a low-scoring affair highly probable.
- Nautico home: 6 of 8 games under 2.5 goals, average total goals 1.5 per home match
- Londrina away: 5 of 9 games under 2.5 goals, average total goals 2.89 but skewed by one 5-0 win
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals, all at Nautico's home ended 1-2 or 2-0
- Nautico's last 5 matches: 4 under 2.5 goals, Londrina's last 5: 3 under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Nautico's low home scoring output (0.75 goals per game) and Londrina's attack missing its main scorer, at least one team is likely to fail to score, especially in a match with relegation-pressure caution.
- Nautico home: clean sheets in 3 of 8, failed to score in 3 of 8
- Londrina away: failed to score in 3 of 9, kept clean sheet in 2 of 9
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5, but recent form shows attacking struggles
- Nautico's last 5: scored in 2 of 5, Londrina's last 5: scored in 3 of 5 but without Bruno Santos
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have identical low first-half scoring averages (0.4 goals) and high rates of trailing at half-time, indicating a cautious start with few early chances, especially given the stakes.
- Nautico home: first half goals 0.4 on average, conceded 0.7, 47% trailing at half-time
- Londrina away: first half goals 0.4 on average, conceded 0.7, 47% trailing at half-time
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had 0-0 at half-time
- Nautico's last 5: 0 first-half goals in 3 matches, Londrina's last 5: 0 first-half goals in 2 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Londrina's attacking absences, Nautico's defensive record at home is not strong (conceded in 5 of 8), and Londrina has a history of scoring at this venue, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Nautico home: kept clean sheet in 3 of 8 home games (37.5%)
- Londrina away: scored in 6 of 9 away games (66.7%), averaging 1.22 goals per away game
- Last 5 H2H: Londrina scored in all 5 meetings, including 2 goals in each of last 3 at Nautico
- Nautico conceded in 5 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLondrina to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's away defensive record is poor, with only 2 clean sheets in 9, and Nautico, despite low scoring, has managed to find the net in most home games, making an away clean sheet improbable.
- Londrina away: kept clean sheet in 2 of 9 away games (22.2%)
- Nautico home: scored in 5 of 8 home games (62.5%), averaging 0.75 goals per home game
- Last 5 H2H: Nautico scored in 4 of 5 meetings
- Nautico failed to score in 3 of last 5 home matches but added attacking reinforcements
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNautico PE to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the high frequency of second-half goals in both teams' matches and the historical H2H trend, it is very likely that at least one goal will be scored after the break as fatigue and pressure increase.
- Nautico home: 62.5% of home games had second-half goals, average 0.75 second-half goals
- Londrina away: 77.8% of away games had second-half goals, average 1.33 second-half goals
- Last 5 H2H: all 5 matches had second-half goals, average 1.8 second-half goals
- Both teams concede more in second half: Nautico 0.7, Londrina 0.7 first half vs 0.7 and 0.6 second half but with higher variance
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners relative to their possession, with Nautico averaging nearly 10 total corners at home and Londrina's away matches seeing over 11, suggesting the total will exceed 9.5.
- Nautico home: average 5.7 corners per game, concede 4.1, total 9.8
- Londrina away: average 5.1 corners per game, concede 6.3, total 11.4
- Last 5 H2H: corner counts 7, 9, 11, 8, 10, average 9.0
- Nautico's last 5 home: average 6.2 corners, Londrina's last 5 away: average 5.8 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging over 2.5 cards per game and the match carrying relegation-pressure intensity, the total cards are likely to exceed 4.5, especially given Londrina's higher disciplinary issues.
- Nautico home: average 2.3 yellow cards, 0 red cards, 15.5 fouls per game
- Londrina away: average 2.7 yellow cards, 0.6 red cards, 13 fouls per game
- Last 5 H2H: card data unavailable, but both teams average over 2.5 cards per game
- Nautico's last 5: 2.2 cards per game, Londrina's last 5: 2.8 cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W0-2LondrinavNautico RecifeAug 10, 2025SER

L3-2LondrinavNautico RecifeAug 24, 2024SER

W1-2Nautico RecifevLondrinaJul 23, 2022SER

L2-0LondrinavNautico RecifeApr 10, 2022SER

W1-2Nautico RecifevLondrinaSep 22, 2021SER

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Nautico PE	18	6	3	9	22-23	21	LLDLL
16	Londrina	18	5	5	8	25-25	20	DDWDW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Nautico PE

L1-2CRBJul 16SER

L0-2AvaiJul 12SER

D0-0JuventudeJul 5SER

L0-1GoiasJun 28SER

L3-4Vila NovaJun 20SER

D2-2NovorizontinoJun 14SER

L0-1Fortaleza ECJun 9SER

L0-2Sport RecifeMay 30SER

W1-0CuiabaMay 22SER

W6-2Operario-PRMay 16SER

W4-0America MineiroMay 10SER

D1-1Botafogo SPMay 2SER

W1-0Athletic ClubApr 27SER

L0-3São BernardoApr 18SER

L0-1CearaApr 11SER

Londrina

D0-0Botafogo SPJul 18SER

D1-1America MineiroJul 13SER

W5-0CRBJul 4SER

D2-2CuiabaJun 25SER

W2-0Athletic ClubJun 20SER

W3-2AvaiJun 16SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 6SER

L0-1Vila NovaMay 31SER

L0-3Fortaleza ECMay 23SER

W4-1Ponte PretaMay 18SER

L1-3São BernardoMay 12SER

L0-3Operario-PRMay 3SER

L0-1JuventudeApr 26SER

D0-0CearaApr 19SER

L1-2Atletico GoianienseApr 12SER

Squad & Injuries

Nautico PE

45 available

Attackers13

Midfielders15

Defenders15

Goalkeeper2

Londrina

40 available

Attackers10

Midfielders15

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Nautico PE or Draw

Under 0.5

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Nautico PE

Londrina

Squad & Injuries

Nautico PE

Londrina