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Predictions graded

Manta1LDU Quito1

HT 0–1Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 71%–29%ShotsShots 14–11On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 10–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jul 2026, 23:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring match with strong value on Under 2.5 Goals (1.60, 15.5-point edge) and Under 0.5 First Half Goals (2.50, 35-point edge).

Manta's chronic scoring struggles and LDU's defensive record make Both Teams to Score – No (1.65) and Under 0.5 Home Goals (2.00) attractive, but avoid the Draw and HT/FT markets due to coaching uncertainty.

Context

Teleamazonas reported on July 16 that LDU dismissed Tiago Nunes and his entire staff after the Universidad Católica defeat.
- The club entered an immediate reset with Libertadores knockout commitments approaching, adding off-pitch noise before this league match.
LigaPro's official July 13 preview said Manta 'require a victory urgently to breathe in the lower table'.
- Manta are 16th in the standings with 12 points from 16 matches, facing a post-phase relegation quadrangular if they don't improve.
Manta have scored only 3 goals in 10 home league matches this season, averaging 0.3 per game.
- They failed to score in 8 of their last 10 home matches, including a 0-0 draw against Orense SC on July 11.
LDU Quito have lost 5 of their 10 away league matches this season.
- They are winless in their last four away league games (D1 L3), including a 1-0 loss at Universidad Católica on July 15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LDU's poor recent away form and coaching upheaval reduce their edge, while Manta's desperation at home could lead to a stalemate, mirroring the frequent draws in recent H2H encounters.
- LDU Quito have drawn 4 of their 20 league matches; Manta have drawn 4 of 20.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, including two 1-1 results.
- Manta's home record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses; LDU's away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses.
- LDU are winless in their last 4 away league matches (3 losses, 1 draw).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
LDU's away vulnerability and internal turmoil, combined with Manta's survival-mode home resilience, make the home side avoiding defeat a plausible outcome.
- LDU Quito have lost 5 of their 10 away league matches this season.
- Manta have avoided defeat in 4 of their 10 home matches (2 wins, 2 draws).
- LDU are winless in their last 4 away league games (D1 L3).
- Manta's last home match was a 0-0 draw against Orense SC.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonManta or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The overwhelming trend of first-half stalemates for both sides, especially in direct matchups, makes a halftime draw highly likely.
- Manta have been drawing at halftime in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- LDU Quito have been drawing at halftime in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 were draws at halftime.
- Manta's first-half record: 7 draws, 7 losses, 1 win in last 15.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a full-time draw is plausible, the specific HT/FT combination of Draw/Draw is less frequent, but supported by the pattern of first-half stalemates and overall match tightness.
- Manta have drawn 2 of their last 15 matches overall; LDU have drawn 4 of their last 15.
- In the last 5 H2H, 3 ended in draws, with 2 being 1-1.
- Manta's home draws: 2 in 10; LDU's away draws: 1 in 10.
- Both teams have a tendency for low-scoring, tight matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are involved in low-scoring games consistently, and the H2H pattern strongly supports a tight, low-event match, reinforced by Manta's relegation urgency and LDU's coaching instability.
- Manta have scored only 7 goals in 20 league matches this season, averaging 0.35 per game.
- LDU Quito have conceded just 16 goals in 20 matches, with 9 clean sheets.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 finished with 2 goals or fewer, including three 1-0 or 1-1 scorelines.
- Manta's last 15 matches: 13 had under 2.5 goals; LDU's last 15: 10 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's chronic scoring struggles (0.35 goals per game) combined with LDU's solid defensive record make it unlikely both teams will find the net, especially given the H2H trend of low-scoring affairs.
- Manta failed to score in 13 of their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- LDU Quito kept clean sheets in 9 of their 20 league games this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in only 2 matches.
- Manta have scored only 3 goals in 10 home league matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are extremely slow starters, with minimal first-half output, and the H2H history shows a strong pattern of 0-0 at the break.
- Manta have scored only 2 first-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- LDU Quito have scored only 3 first-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 were goalless at halftime.
- Manta's first-half goal average: 0.1; LDU's: 0.2 over the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to keep things tight after the break, with Manta's offensive struggles and LDU's defensive solidity limiting second-half scoring.
- Manta have scored only 5 second-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- LDU Quito have conceded only 8 second-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H, 4 matches had 1 or fewer second-half goals.
- Manta's matches average 1.0 second-half goals; LDU's average 0.8.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
LDU's defensive record is strong, and Manta's attacking impotence is severe, making an away clean sheet a distinct possibility.
- LDU Quito have kept 9 clean sheets in 20 league matches this season.
- Manta have failed to score in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H, LDU kept 2 clean sheets against Manta.
- Manta have scored only 3 goals in 10 home league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostManta not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's home scoring record is abysmal, and LDU's away defense is solid, making it highly likely the hosts fail to score.
- Manta have scored only 3 goals in 10 home league matches this season.
- Manta failed to score in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- LDU Quito have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 away matches.
- Manta's last 15 matches: 13 with under 0.5 home goals.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostManta under 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages and H2H data suggest a total around 9-10, making under 9.5 a reasonable expectation in a match likely to be cautious and low on attacking impetus.
- Manta average 5.1 corners per match over their last 15; LDU average 5.6.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were: 10, 9, 8, 7, 11 (average 9.0).
- Manta's home matches average 9.8 corners; LDU's away matches average 9.4 corners.
- Both teams' recent matches show a trend toward lower corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Manta's desperation and LDU's frustration from recent results could lead to a feisty encounter, pushing the card count above the line.
- Manta average 2.6 yellow cards per match over their last 15; LDU average 3.4.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were: 5, 6, 4, 5, 7 (average 5.4).
- Manta's home matches average 5.2 cards; LDU's away matches average 5.8 cards.
- Relegation-pressure matches often see increased disciplinary actions.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

L1-0LDU de QuitovManta FCMar 22, 2026LIG

D1-1LDU de QuitovManta FCAug 17, 2025LIG

D1-1Manta FCvLDU de QuitoApr 26, 2025LIG

W0-1Manta FCvLDU de QuitoJun 5, 2022COP

D2-2Manta FCvLDU de QuitoSep 26, 2021LIG

2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Manta Relegation Playoffs	20	3	4	13	7-25	13	LLDLW
6	LDU Quito Play-offs	20	8	4	8	19-16	28	LLDLW

15pt gap between teamsManta in relegation zone

Recent Form

Manta

L0-1Guayaquil City FCJul 19LIG

L0-1Delfin SCJul 15LIG

D0-0Orense SCJul 11LIG

L0-4Independiente del ValleJul 4LIG

W2-1LibertadMay 30LIG

L1-3AucasMay 26LIG

D0-0EmelecMay 17LIG

L0-1MacaraMay 10LIG

D1-1Barcelona SCMay 3LIG

W1-0Universidad CatolicaApr 27LIG

L0-3Leones del NorteApr 22LIG

L0-1Deportivo CuencaApr 19LIG

L0-1Mushuc Runa SCApr 11LIG

L0-2Tecnico UniversitarioApr 5LIG

L0-1LDU de QuitoMar 22LIG

LDU Quito

L0-1Leones del NorteJul 18LIG

L0-1Universidad CatolicaJul 15LIG

D0-0LibertadJul 12LIG

L0-1MacaraJul 5LIG

W3-0Orense SCJul 1LIG

D0-0FBC MelgarJun 18FRI

D1-1FBC MelgarJun 17FRI

W3-2Always ReadyMay 26CON

D1-1Deportivo CuencaMay 24LIG

W2-0LanusMay 21CON

W2-1Tecnico UniversitarioMay 15LIG

W3-1Mushuc Runa SCMay 12LIG

L0-2MirassolMay 7CON

W1-0Guayaquil City FCMay 2LIG

L0-1LanusApr 28CON

Squad & Injuries

Manta

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders16

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

LDU Quito

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders14

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Under 0.5

Draw

Manta or Draw

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Under 1.5

Manta not to score

Draw at half-time / Draw at full-time

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Manta

LDU Quito

Squad & Injuries

Manta

LDU Quito