Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Houston Dynamo1DC United1

HT 1–0Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 20–7On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 08:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Houston's home strength and playoff urgency give them the edge, but D.C.

United's high away draw rate makes the short home win odds unappealing. The best value lies in the cards market, where over 4.5 total cards is priced at 2.10 against a 60% estimated probability, offering a solid edge.

Context

Houston paid $1.25m in General Allocation Money for McGuire.
- GM Pat Onstad said the signing is part of the club's push up the table.
- Houston sit 7th in the West, just three points off the top four.
Aaron Herrera was waived on June 10.
- Gabriel Pirani was sold to San Diego on July 9.
- Nathan Ordaz was acquired from LAFC on July 13.
Houston home record: 5W-0D-2L.
- They have scored 8 goals and conceded 6 in 7 home games.
- D.C. United have only 2 wins in 8 away matches.
D.C. away record: 2W-4D-2L.
- They have scored 10 and conceded 9 in away games.
- Houston have not drawn at home this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Houston Dynamo

1.75fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 57%

0.0ppshort

Houston's strong home form (5 wins in 7) and playoff motivation, combined with DC United's mid-summer roster reshaping, give the Dynamo a clear edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Houston's strong home form (5 wins in 7) and playoff motivation, combined with DC United's mid-summer roster reshaping, give the Dynamo a clear edge.
- Houston home record: 5W-0D-2L, 8 goals for, 6 against in 7 matches this season.
- DC United away record: 2W-4D-2L, 10 goals for, 9 against in 8 matches.
- Houston won last MLS H2H 4-1 at DC United in June 2024.
- Houston form last 5: DWLWW (3W-1D-1L), DC United last 5: DDLDW (1W-3D-1L).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHouston DynamoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Houston's home strength and DC United's tendency to draw away make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Houston home record: 5W-0D-2L, only 2 losses at home this season.
- DC United away record: 2W-4D-2L, 6 of 8 away games without a loss.
- Houston have not drawn at home this season, but DC United draw 50% of away games.
- Houston's last 5 home matches: 4 wins, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHouston Dynamo or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, with a high chance of a level score at the break.
- Houston leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 20%.
- DC United leading at half-time in 40%, trailing in 27%.
- Houston's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss at half-time.
- DC United's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Houston's home push and DC United's second-half defensive frailties suggest a possible second-half edge for the Dynamo.
- Houston have a positive second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- DC United have a negative second-half goal difference (concede 1.2 per second half).
- Houston's home advantage and motivation may lead to a stronger second half.
- No direct second-half result data available, inferred from goal timing.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableHouston DynamoEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and recent H2H history shows high-scoring affairs.
- Houston average 1.7 goals for, 1.5 against over last 15 matches.
- DC United average 1.4 goals for, 1.7 against over last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Houston's last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, making a clean sheet unlikely for either side.
- Houston scored in 13 of last 15 matches, conceded in 11 of last 15.
- DC United scored in 10 of last 15, conceded in 12 of last 15.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
- Houston home: scored in 6 of 7, conceded in 4 of 7.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Houston's attacking output at home, though modest, should be enough to breach a DC United defense that concedes regularly.
- Houston average 1.7 goals per match overall, 1.14 at home (8 goals in 7 home games).
- Houston scored 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- DC United concede 1.7 goals per match overall, 1.13 away (9 goals in 8 away games).
- Houston scored 4 goals in last H2H meeting.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHouston Dynamo over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
DC United's consistent away scoring record against a Houston defense that often concedes makes an away goal very likely.
- DC United scored in 10 of last 15 matches, including 7 of 8 away games.
- Houston conceded in 11 of last 15 matches, including 4 of 7 home games.
- DC United average 1.4 goals per match overall, 1.25 away.
- Houston conceded 1.5 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDC United over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half action, with Houston's matches averaging 1.4 first-half goals.
- Houston average 0.7 first-half goals, concede 0.7 first-half goals.
- DC United average 0.6 first-half goals, concede 0.5 first-half goals.
- Houston's last 5 matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
- DC United's last 5 matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of multiple goals, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Houston average 1.0 second-half goals (1.7 total - 0.7 first half), concede 0.8 second-half goals.
- DC United average 0.8 second-half goals, concede 1.2 second-half goals.
- Combined second-half average: 1.8 goals per match.
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals in 4 of 5, with 3 having over 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 9.5 total corners, making over 9.5 a borderline call with low confidence.
- Houston average 4.7 corners per match, concede 4.7 opponent corners (total 9.4).
- DC United average 4.7 corners per match, concede 5.5 opponent corners (total 10.2).
- Combined average corners: 9.8 per match.
- Last 5 H2H with corner data: 3 of 5 had over 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate cards at a rate that suggests over 4.5 total cards is likely.
- Houston average 2.1 yellow cards, 0.8 red cards per match.
- DC United average 2.2 yellow cards, 0.3 red cards per match.
- Combined average cards: 4.3 yellows + 1.1 reds = 5.4 cards per match.
- Last 5 H2H: card data unavailable, but both teams have above-average discipline issues.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L1-3Houston DynamovDC UnitedFeb 15, 2025FRI

W1-4DC UnitedvHouston DynamoJun 22, 2024MAJ

L2-0DC UnitedvHouston DynamoMay 7, 2022MAJ

W2-1Houston DynamovDC UnitedMay 19, 2019MAJ

D2-2DC UnitedvHouston DynamoMar 17, 2018MAJ

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Houston Dynamo Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	14	7	1	6	19-23	22	DWLWW
9	DC United Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	15	4	6	5	21-25	18	DDLDW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Houston Dynamo

W2-1America de CaliJul 16FRI

W3-0CD OlimpiaJul 11FRI

D1-1Los Angeles GalaxyMay 24MAJ

W1-0Vancouver WhitecapsMay 17MAJ

L0-3Real Salt LakeMay 14MAJ

W4-1Los Angeles FCMay 11MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsMay 3MAJ

L0-2AustinApr 26MAJ

W1-0San DiegoApr 23MAJ

W1-0Orlando City SCApr 18MAJ

W4-1El Paso LocomotiveApr 16US

L2-6Colorado RapidsApr 12MAJ

L0-1Seattle SoundersApr 5MAJ

L3-4FC DallasMar 22MAJ

W3-2Portland TimbersMar 15MAJ

DC United

D4-4CF MontrealMay 23MAJ

D1-1St. Louis CityMay 16MAJ

L1-3Chicago FireMay 13MAJ

D2-2Nashville SCMay 10MAJ

W2-0New York City FCMay 3MAJ

W3-2Orlando City SCApr 25MAJ

D4-4New York Red BullsApr 22MAJ

D0-0Philadelphia UnionApr 18MAJ

L0-1New England RevolutionApr 11MAJ

L0-4FC DallasApr 4MAJ

D0-0Atlanta United FCMar 21MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireMar 15MAJ

L1-2Inter MiamiMar 7MAJ

L0-1AustinMar 1MAJ

W1-0Philadelphia UnionFeb 22MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Houston Dynamo

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

DC United

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 4.5

Houston Dynamo

Houston Dynamo or Draw

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Houston Dynamo

Houston Dynamo or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Houston Dynamo

DC United

Squad & Injuries

Houston Dynamo

DC United