Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Chapecoense0Flamengo4

HT 0–2Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 08:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Flamengo are expected to beat bottom-side Chapecoense, but the 1.45 odds offer no value.

Instead, focus on goals: over 2.5 goals (1.78, +3.8% edge) and both teams to score (1.95, +3.7% edge) are solid plays, while over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.50 provides a standout +15% edge given Chapecoense's leaky defense and Flamengo's attacking firepower.

Context

Fabio Matias was dismissed on 2026-05-25 after less than two months in charge.
- Rafael Lacerda was appointed on 2026-05-30 through the end of 2026.
- Chapecoense have won only one of 18 league matches this season.
Flamengo played four friendlies in Europe between 3 and 17 July.
- The team traveled back to Brazil just days before this league restart.
- Flamengo's last competitive Serie A match was on 30 May.
Flamengo have won three and drawn one of the last four H2H matches.
- Chapecoense's last win over Flamengo was a 3-2 home victory in May 2018.
- Flamengo hold an 11-3-2 overall H2H record with a 33-13 goal advantage.
Chapecoense have conceded 20 goals in 9 home Serie A matches this season.
- They have kept only one clean sheet at home in the league.
- In their last five home matches across all competitions, they conceded 10 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's superior league position, strong away form, and historical dominance over a struggling Chapecoense side in a coaching reset make an away win highly likely.
- Flamengo rank 2nd with 34 points from 17 matches, while Chapecoense are bottom with 9 points from 18.
- Flamengo have won 5 of 9 away matches (W5 D2 L2), scoring 15 and conceding 9.
- Chapecoense have lost 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches, conceding 10 goals in those 5.
- H2H: Flamengo unbeaten in last 4 meetings (W3 D1), including a 2-1 away win in 2021.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Chapecoense's extremely poor win rate and Flamengo's consistency, the probability of Chapecoense failing to win is very high.
- Chapecoense have won only 1 of 18 league matches this season.
- Flamengo have lost only 3 of 17 league matches.
- Chapecoense's home record: W1 D4 L4, with 13 goals scored and 20 conceded.
- H2H: Chapecoense have not beaten Flamengo since May 2018.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FlamengoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's superior quality and Chapecoense's tendency to start slowly give the visitors an edge to lead at the break.
- Flamengo lead at half-time in 33% of matches, while Chapecoense lead in only 20%.
- Chapecoense trail at half-time in 20% of matches, but in recent Serie A games they were behind at HT in 2 of last 5.
- Flamengo have won the first half in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Chapecoense lost the first half 0-2 vs Bahia and 0-3 vs Avai in recent outings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Flamengo establish an early lead, their control and Chapecoense's low comeback probability make a HT/FT double plausible.
- Flamengo have led at HT and won the match in 4 of their 10 wins this season.
- Chapecoense have trailed at HT and lost the match in 2 of their 11 defeats.
- Flamengo's away record: W5 D2 L2, with 3 wins after leading at HT.
- Chapecoense's home record: W1 D4 L4, with 0 wins when trailing at HT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableFlamengo/FlamengoEstimated chance45%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense's leaky defense at home combined with Flamengo's consistent scoring output points to a match with at least three goals.
- Chapecoense's home matches average 3.7 total goals (13 scored, 20 conceded in 9 games).
- Flamengo's away matches average 2.7 total goals (15 scored, 9 conceded in 9 games).
- Flamengo have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 8 competitive matches.
- Chapecoense have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense tend to find the net at home, and Flamengo's away defense is not impenetrable, making both teams scoring a reasonable outcome.
- Chapecoense have scored in 7 of 9 home league matches this season.
- Flamengo have conceded in 6 of 9 away league matches.
- Chapecoense average 1.44 goals per home game, while Flamengo concede 1.0 per away game.
- H2H: Both teams scored in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's away defensive record suggests they are unlikely to shut out a Chapecoense side that regularly scores at home.
- Flamengo have kept only 3 clean sheets in 9 away league matches.
- Chapecoense have failed to score in only 2 of 9 home league matches.
- Chapecoense average 1.44 goals per home game.
- Flamengo's away goals conceded average is 1.0 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostChapecoense to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Chapecoense have shown they can score multiple goals at home, their overall poor form and Flamengo's quality make this a low-confidence pick.
- Chapecoense have scored 2+ goals in 4 of 9 home league matches.
- Chapecoense average 1.44 goals per home game.
- Flamengo have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of 9 away league matches.
- Chapecoense's recent home form: 2-3 vs Remo, 1-2 vs RB Bragantino, 2-0 vs Botafogo (cup).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostChapecoense over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's attacking intent and Chapecoense's defensive fragility suggest a lively first half with multiple goals.
- Flamengo average 0.9 first-half goals per game overall, with 33% of matches leading at half-time.
- Chapecoense concede 0.7 first-half goals on average, but in recent Serie A matches they conceded first-half goals in 3 of last 5.
- Flamengo scored 3 first-half goals in their last friendly vs Olimpia.
- Chapecoense's last 5 Serie A matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (total 5 goals in those first halves).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages from both teams' matches hover around 9.5, making over 9.5 a borderline call with low confidence.
- Flamengo average 5.5 corners per game, while Chapecoense average 3.4.
- Flamengo's away matches average 5.3 corners for, 4.0 against (total ~9.3).
- Chapecoense's home matches average 3.4 corners for, 6.1 against (total ~9.5).
- Recent H2H data unavailable for corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a card-heavy match, though lack of referee-specific data limits confidence.
- Chapecoense average 2.9 yellow cards per game, Flamengo average 2.4.
- Chapecoense have received 4+ yellow cards in 3 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Flamengo have received 3+ yellow cards in 3 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein's card data unavailable, but match intensity expected to be high.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D2-2Chapecoense-scvFlamengoNov 8, 2021SA

L2-1FlamengovChapecoense-scJul 11, 2021SA

W0-1Chapecoense-SCvFlamengoOct 6, 2019SA

L2-1FlamengovChapecoense-SCMay 12, 2019SA

L2-0FlamengovChapecoense-scSep 9, 2018SA

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
20	Chapecoense Relegation - Serie B	18	1	6	11	17-35	9	LLLLD
2	Flamengo Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	17	10	4	3	31-16	34	WLDWD

25pt gap between teamsChapecoense in relegation zone

Recent Form

Chapecoense

L0-2BahiaJul 17SA

W2-1GremioJul 4FRI

L0-3AvaiJun 3COP

L0-1PalmeirasMay 31SA

D2-2NovorizontinoMay 27COP

L1-2CruzeiroMay 24SA

W2-0NovorizontinoMay 20COP

L2-3RemoMay 17SA

W2-0BotafogoMay 14COP

D1-1MirassolMay 10SA

W2-1Operario-PRMay 7COP

L1-2RB BragantinoMay 3SA

W2-1America MineiroApr 29COP

L1-2FluminenseApr 26SA

L0-1BotafogoApr 21COP

Flamengo

W4-2OlimpiaJul 17FRI

W2-1BenficaJul 11FRI

W2-0LausanneJul 8FRI

D2-2River PlateJul 3FRI

W3-0CoritibaMay 30SA

W3-0CuscoMay 27CON

L0-3PalmeirasMay 24SA

W1-0Estudiantes L.P.May 21CON

D1-1Atletico ParanaenseMay 17SA

L0-2VitoriaMay 15COP

W1-0GremioMay 10SA

D2-2Vasco DA GamaMay 3SA

D1-1Estudiantes L.P.Apr 30CON

W4-0Atletico-MGApr 26SA

W2-1VitoriaApr 23COP

Squad & Injuries

Chapecoense

52 available

Attackers15

Midfielders15

Defenders17

Goalkeeper5

Flamengo

49 available

Attackers13

Midfielders17

Defenders14

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Flamengo

Draw or Flamengo

Flamengo at half-time / Flamengo at full-time

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Chapecoense

Flamengo

Squad & Injuries

Chapecoense

Flamengo