Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Goias1Sport Recife1

HT 0–1Wed 22 Jul 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 15–6On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 01:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Goias are favorites at home against a Sport side under new management, but the value lies in derivative markets.

Back under 9.5 corners (1.85) and over 4.5 cards (1.80), where our model sees edges of 6% and 9.4% respectively. Avoid the match winner and double chance markets, as odds are too short given the uncertainty around Sport's coaching change.

Context

Coach Gilmar Dal Pozzo was appointed on 30 June, giving him only three weeks with the team before this match.
- New right-back Claudinho joined full training on 7 July, and attacking midfielder Diego Hernandez was presented on 14 July.
- Player comments on the club site emphasize higher intensity and quick tactical adaptation under the new regime.
Goias home record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in 8 matches.
- They have scored 8 goals and conceded 10 at home, indicating defensive frailties.
- Recent home form includes a 3-0 loss to Operario-PR and a 4-0 loss to Novorizontino.
Sport's last 5 results: D-D-L-L-D, with only 3 points from a possible 15.
- They have conceded 9 goals in those 5 matches, averaging 1.8 per game.
- Their last away win was on 23 May against Juventude.
Last 5 H2H: Goias won 3, drew 2; at home they won 3-0 in 2024 and 1-0 in 2020.
- Sport have failed to score in both of those away losses.
- The overall H2H record at Goias' ground shows 3 wins and 0 goals conceded in the last two encounters.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias has a strong home advantage with 5 wins in 8, and H2H dominance at this venue (3-0 and 1-0 wins). Sport's recent form is poor (3 points from last 5) and they are under a new coach with potential instability, giving Goias the edge.
- Goias home record: 5W-0D-3L (8 matches), 8 goals scored, 10 conceded.
- Sport Recife away record: 3W-3D-2L (8 matches), 7 goals scored, 5 conceded.
- H2H last 5: Goias won 3, drawn 2; at Goias, they won 3-0 in 2024 and 1-0 in 2020.
- Goias last 5 form: W-D-W-W-L (10 points); Sport last 5: D-D-L-L-D (3 points).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGoiasEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Goias' strong home form (5 wins, no draws) with Sport's difficulty winning away (only 3 wins in 8) and H2H history where Goias hasn't lost to Sport in 5 meetings, the probability of Goias avoiding defeat is high.
- Goias home: 5W-0D-3L; only 3 losses in 8 home games.
- Sport away: 3W-3D-2L; 6 of 8 away games avoided defeat.
- H2H: Goias unbeaten in last 5 vs Sport (3W, 2D).
- Sport's last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L, only 1 win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGoias or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for level first halves, with Goias drawing 4 of 8 at home and Sport drawing 3 of 8 away. H2H also shows a pattern of halftime draws, making it the most likely outcome.
- Goias home first half: led at HT in 3 of 8, trailed in 1, drawn 4.
- Sport away first half: led at HT in 2 of 8, trailed in 3, drawn 3.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at halftime.
- Goias last 5 home: 3 draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias has a slight edge in second-half performance at home, and Sport's away second-half record is mediocre. However, the margins are thin, and a draw is also plausible, keeping confidence low.
- Goias home second half: won 3, drawn 2, lost 3 in 8 matches.
- Sport away second half: won 2, drawn 3, lost 3 in 8 matches.
- H2H: Goias won second half in 2 of last 5, drawn 2, lost 1.
- Goias last 5 home: won second half in 2, drawn 2, lost 1.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableGoiasEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias has shown a pattern of breaking deadlocks in the second half at home, but the specific HT/FT combination is not frequent enough for high confidence. It remains a plausible outcome given their home strength.
- Goias home: 3 of 8 matches were draw at HT and Goias win at FT.
- Sport away: 1 of 8 matches were draw at HT and Sport loss at FT.
- H2H: 1 of last 5 had Draw/Goias pattern.
- Goias last 5 home: 2 had Draw/Goias pattern.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/GoiasEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring trends in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history shows a tendency for tight matches. Goias' home games average just over 2 goals, and Sport's away games are even lower, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Goias home matches average 2.25 total goals (8 scored, 10 conceded in 8 games).
- Sport away matches average 1.5 total goals (7 scored, 5 conceded in 8 games).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Goias last 5 home: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While both teams have mixed scoring records, H2H history shows both teams scoring in less than half of recent meetings. Sport's solid away defense (4 clean sheets in 8) and Goias' inconsistent home attack (8 goals in 8 games) suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Goias home: scored in 6 of 8, but conceded in 6 of 8.
- Sport away: scored in 5 of 8, conceded in 4 of 8.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings.
- Sport away clean sheets: 4 in 8 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias has a moderate chance of a clean sheet given Sport's low away scoring rate and historical success at home against them, but Goias' own defensive record at home (10 conceded in 8) limits confidence.
- Goias home clean sheets: 2 in 8 matches.
- Sport away failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- H2H: Goias kept clean sheet vs Sport in 2 of last 5 (both at home).
- Sport away goals: 7 in 8, averaging 0.875 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSport Recife not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, especially in their respective home/away splits. H2H matches are typically tight early, with only one of the last five exceeding 1 goal in the first half, making under 1.5 highly probable.
- Goias first half goals at home: 0.6 per game average; conceded 0.5.
- Sport first half goals away: 0.4 per game average; conceded 0.5.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- Goias last 5 home: 4 of 5 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Matches tend to open up after halftime, with both teams showing a pattern of second-half goals in their respective splits. H2H history also supports at least one goal after the break in most encounters.
- Goias home second half: 5 of 8 games had at least 1 goal.
- Sport away second half: 6 of 8 games had at least 1 goal.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had a second-half goal.
- Goias last 5 overall: 4 of 5 had a second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and H2H history shows low total corners. Goias' home games average around 9.4 corners, and Sport's away games average 9.5, suggesting a tight total under 9.5 is likely.
- Goias home corners average: 4.4 per game; opponent corners: 5.0.
- Sport away corners average: 5.5 per game; opponent corners: 4.0.
- Last 5 H2H: total corners averaged 8.4 (only 1 match over 9.5).
- Goias last 5 home: 3 of 5 had under 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for disciplinary actions, with Goias averaging over 2.5 yellows at home and Sport over 3 away. H2H matches are typically feisty, with 4 of the last 5 exceeding 4.5 cards, supporting an over.
- Goias home yellow cards average: 2.6 per game; opponent: 2.0.
- Sport away yellow cards average: 3.0 per game; opponent: 2.5.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards (average 5.2 cards).
- Goias last 5 home: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D1-1Sport RecifevGoiasSep 19, 2024SER

W3-0GoiasvSport RecifeJun 1, 2024SER

W1-0GoiasvSport RecifeDec 26, 2020SA

L2-1Sport RecifevGoiasSep 6, 2020SA

W1-0GoiasvSport RecifeSep 10, 2015SA

Goias: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Goias	18	8	4	6	20-24	28	WDWWL
9	Sport Recife	18	6	9	3	23-17	27	DDLLD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Goias

W2-1Ponte PretaJul 18SER

D2-2CRBJul 12SER

W2-0CearaJul 4SER

W1-0Nautico RecifeJun 28SER

L0-3Operario-PRJun 21SER

D1-1Athletic ClubJun 14SER

L0-4NovorizontinoJun 10SER

D1-1Atletico GoianienseMay 30SER

W2-0AvaiMay 24SER

W1-0Botafogo SPMay 16SER

L0-1CruzeiroMay 13COP

W1-0Vila NovaMay 9SER

L1-4Fortaleza ECMay 2SER

L0-1São BernardoApr 26SER

D2-2CruzeiroApr 22COP

Sport Recife

D2-2Operario-PRJul 18SER

D3-3Botafogo SPJul 10SER

L0-1CriciumaJul 4SER

L1-2Fortaleza ECJun 28SER

D1-1Atletico GoianienseJun 19SER

D0-0São BernardoJun 14SER

D1-1Athletic ClubJun 11SER

W2-0Nautico RecifeMay 30SER

L0-2Fortaleza ECMay 28COP

W1-0JuventudeMay 23SER

W2-1Fortaleza ECMay 21COP

L1-2CRBMay 17SER

W3-1Ponte PretaMay 9SER

W1-0ASAMay 7COP

W2-0CearaMay 3SER

Squad & Injuries

Goias

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Sport Recife

49 available

Attackers12

Midfielders16

Defenders15

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Goias or Draw

Under 1.5

No

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Goias

Sport Recife

Squad & Injuries

Goias

Sport Recife