Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Londrina0Botafogo SP0

HT 0–0Sat 18 Jul 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 22–5On targetOn target 5–0CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Jul 2026, 07:33 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome as Londrina rebuild their attack and Botafogo SP miss suspended coach Tencati.

The best value is under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.38 (60% estimated vs. 42% implied), while the double chance on Londrina or draw at 1.36 is a poor bet given the negative edge.

Context

ge reported on 12 July 2026 that manager Rogério Micale is reshaping the attack after the exits of Iago Teles and Bruno Santos.
- By 11 July, five of six new signings were regularized, but the attack is still being reassembled.
- Londrina's recent home scoring has been inconsistent: 0 goals in two of their last five home matches.
ge reported on 10 July 2026 that Tencati was booked for protesting a late penalty in the 3-3 draw at Sport.
- The booking was his third yellow card, triggering a one-match suspension.
- Tencati's pre-suspension comments hinted at a possible return to a three-centre-back setup for away matches, adding tactical uncertainty.
ge reported on 8 July 2026 that Tencati explained the return to 4-3-3 but said the three-centre-back system was not abandoned.
- Tencati specifically mentioned the three-centre-back setup could be used in away matches for more defensive security.
- Botafogo's away form has been poor: only 2 wins in 9 away games, with 6 of 9 matches under 2.5 goals.
On 10 July 2026, winger Zé Hugo said Botafogo's target was to take nine points from their final three first-turn games.
- Botafogo are coming off a 3-3 away draw and a 3-1 home win, showing improved form.
- A win could push Botafogo closer to the top half, while Londrina are only four points above the relegation zone.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With Londrina rebuilding their attack and Botafogo missing their suspended coach, both sides lack a decisive edge, making a draw the most likely outcome given balanced recent form and H2H patterns.
- Londrina home record: 3W-2D-3L (8 matches), Botafogo SP away record: 2W-3D-4L (9 matches)
- Last 5 H2H: 2 away wins, 2 draws, 1 home win – no clear venue advantage
- Both teams average ~1.3 goals scored/conceded per game in last 15, suggesting parity
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home resilience and Botafogo's poor away record, combined with the hosts' motivation to avoid relegation danger, make a home win or draw the safer double chance.
- Londrina home points per game: 1.38 (11 pts from 8), Botafogo away PPG: 1.00 (9 pts from 9)
- Londrina have lost only 3 of 8 home games; Botafogo have won only 2 of 9 away
- H2H at Londrina: 1 draw, 1 Botafogo win – but sample is small and dated
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLondrina or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing a tendency to be level at the break, a first-half draw is the most supported outcome.
- Londrina first-half record: 27% leading, 40% trailing, 33% drawing
- Botafogo first-half record: 27% leading, 27% trailing, 46% drawing
- Combined first-half draw probability based on averages: ~50%
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home advantage and Botafogo's weaker second-half away performances give the hosts a slight edge to win the second period, though confidence is low due to attacking uncertainties.
- Londrina home second-half goal difference: +0.5 per game
- Botafogo away second-half goal difference: -0.11 per game
- Londrina have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableLondrinaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A cagey first half followed by a stalemate fits the pattern of two evenly matched, low-scoring sides, though the specific double result remains a low-probability event.
- Londrina home HT draw rate: 37.5%, FT draw rate: 25%
- Botafogo away HT draw rate: 44%, FT draw rate: 33%
- Combined probability of HT draw and FT draw based on independent averages: ~12%, but correlation increases it
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo's low-scoring away trend and Londrina's inconsistent attack after losing key forwards point to a tight, low-scoring affair, likely staying under 2.5 goals.
- Londrina home goals per game: 1.75, Botafogo away goals per game: 0.78
- Botafogo away matches: 6 of 9 under 2.5 goals (67%)
- Londrina last 5 home matches: 3 under 2.5, 2 over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given Botafogo's defensive solidity on the road and Londrina's attacking disruption, at least one side is likely to blank, making 'No' for both teams to score a reasonable call.
- Botafogo away clean sheets: 3 in 9 away games (33%)
- Londrina home failed to score: 2 in 8 home games (25%)
- Botafogo away failed to score: 4 in 9 away games (44%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, suggesting a goalless first half is the most probable outcome.
- Londrina first-half goals per game: 0.5, Botafogo first-half goals per game: 0.4
- Londrina home first-half goals: 0.5 per game; Botafogo away first-half goals: 0.33 per game
- Both teams have a high rate of 0-0 at half-time in recent matches (Londrina 40% trailing at HT, Botafogo 27% leading)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Matches tend to open up after the break, and with both teams likely to push for a result, at least one second-half goal is highly probable.
- Londrina second-half goals per game: 0.9, Botafogo second-half goals per game: 0.5
- Londrina home second-half goals: 1.25 per game; Botafogo away second-half goals: 0.44 per game
- Only 2 of Londrina's last 15 matches had a 0-0 second half; Botafogo had 4 such matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's defensive record at home is not strong enough to expect a clean sheet, especially with Botafogo capable of scoring on the break.
- Londrina home clean sheets: 2 in 8 (25%)
- Botafogo away failed to score: 4 in 9 (44%)
- Londrina have conceded in 6 of their last 8 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBotafogo SP to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo's away defensive solidity is not overwhelming, and Londrina's need for points at home makes an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Botafogo away clean sheets: 3 in 9 (33%)
- Londrina home failed to score: 2 in 8 (25%)
- Londrina have scored in 6 of their last 8 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLondrina to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite slightly above-average corner numbers, the tactical nature of this match—with both teams cautious—should keep total corners under 9.5.
- Londrina average corners per game: 4.9, Botafogo average: 6.4
- Londrina home corners: 5.1 per game; Botafogo away corners: 6.0 per game
- Combined average corners: 11.1, but recent H2H (2023) had 8 and 9 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With high foul counts and a tense mid-table clash, the total cards should exceed 4.5, reflecting the physical nature of Serie B.
- Londrina average yellow cards: 2.8, Botafogo average: 2.5
- Londrina home yellow cards: 3.0 per game; Botafogo away yellow cards: 2.8 per game
- Combined average cards: 5.3, with both teams averaging over 13 fouls per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W0-1Botafogo SPvLondrinaNov 25, 2023SER

L1-2LondrinavBotafogo SPJul 24, 2023SER

D1-1LondrinavBotafogo SPNov 16, 2019SER

L2-1Botafogo SPvLondrinaAug 20, 2019SER

D0-0LondrinavBotafogo SPAug 4, 2013SER

Londrina: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Londrina	16	5	3	8	24-24	18	WDWWL
14	Botafogo SP	17	5	5	7	20-18	20	DWLWW

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Londrina

W5-0CRBJul 4SER

D2-2CuiabaJun 25SER

W2-0Athletic ClubJun 20SER

W3-2AvaiJun 16SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 6SER

L0-1Vila NovaMay 31SER

L0-3Fortaleza ECMay 23SER

W4-1Ponte PretaMay 18SER

L1-3São BernardoMay 12SER

L0-3Operario-PRMay 3SER

L0-1JuventudeApr 26SER

D0-0CearaApr 19SER

L1-2Atletico GoianienseApr 12SER

L1-2Sport RecifeApr 4SER

D2-2GoiasApr 1SER

Botafogo SP

D3-3Sport RecifeJul 10SER

W3-1AvaiJul 6SER

L0-1CRBJun 30SER

W1-0CearaJun 20SER

W2-1Operario-PRJun 14SER

L0-1Vila NovaJun 8SER

D0-0Ponte PretaJun 1SER

L1-2Athletic ClubMay 25SER

L0-1GoiasMay 16SER

L0-1NovorizontinoMay 10SER

D1-1Nautico RecifeMay 2SER

D1-1CuiabaApr 23SER

D1-1Atletico GoianienseApr 19SER

L0-1CriciumaApr 10SER

L1-2São BernardoApr 5SER

Squad & Injuries

Londrina

37 available

Attackers11

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Botafogo SP

37 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders14

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 0.5

Over 4.5

Londrina or Draw

Under 2.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Londrina or Draw

No

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Londrina

Botafogo SP

Squad & Injuries

Londrina

Botafogo SP