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Predictions graded

St Louis City3Sporting Kansas City2

HT 2–1Fri 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 20–12On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 07:51 · Europe/Bucharest

St.

Louis City's regular-season home dominance over Sporting Kansas City (unbeaten in four, with three wins) and Sporting's dreadful away defense (3.1 goals conceded per game) make the hosts clear favorites, but the market has overpriced the win and double chance, offering no value. The most balanced betting angle is Both Teams to Score at 1.50, given that four of the last five H2H meetings have seen both sides find the net, though post-World Cup rust adds uncertainty.

Context

Sporting KC away record: 2W-0D-5L, 5 goals for, 22 against in 7 matches.
- They conceded 2+ first-half goals per away game on average and trailed at halftime in 71% of away matches.
- Recent away losses include 6-0 at Portland and 5-0 at Chicago.
Regular-season H2H at St. Louis: 4-0, 4-1, 3-1, 2-2.
- Sporting's only win in St. Louis came in the 2023 playoffs (4-1).
- St. Louis scored 2+ goals in all four regular-season home meetings.
MLS paused from May 25 to July 16 for the 2026 World Cup.
- St. Louis are 12th in the West on 16 points, six behind 8th-place Minnesota.
- Sporting are 15th on 11 points, eleven behind the wild-card line.
Sporting's official staff page confirms Raphaël Wicky as head coach.
- The club mutually parted ways with Sporting Director Mike Burns, and David Lee has been reorganizing the soccer operation.
- Five technical/coaching additions were made in 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

St Louis City or Draw

1.14fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

St Louis are unbeaten in 4 regular-season home H2Hs (3W-1D) and Sporting have lost 5 of 7 away this season, conceding 3.1 goals per away game.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

St Louis City

1.41fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

St Louis's strong home form and Sporting's dreadful away record give the hosts a clear edge, but the market has overpriced the win probability.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.35fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Sporting KC's away matches average 3.9 total goals, and 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, and Sporting KC concede heavily on the road.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.33fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 75.2%

−20.0ppshort

St Louis average 1.8 goals per home game and Sporting KC concede 3.1 per away game.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.15fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Sporting KC concede 2.0 first-half goals per away game, and 4 of last 5 H2H had first-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home form and historical dominance over Sporting KC at home, combined with Sporting's poor away record (conceding 3.1 goals per away game), give the hosts a clear edge.
- St Louis City home record: 3W-1D-2L, 11 goals for, 7 against in 6 matches this season.
- Sporting Kansas City away record: 2W-0D-5L, 5 goals for, 22 against in 7 matches this season.
- H2H at St Louis: unbeaten in 4 regular-season home meetings (3W-1D), including 3-1 and 4-1 wins.
- St Louis City last 5 matches: 3W-1D-1L; Sporting KC last 5: 2W-1D-2L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt Louis CityEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City are highly unlikely to lose at home given their solid home form and Sporting's dreadful away record, making a home win or draw very probable.
- St Louis City home record: 3W-1D-2L, only 2 losses in 6 home games.
- Sporting Kansas City away record: 2W-0D-5L, no draws away, 5 losses in 7.
- H2H at St Louis: St Louis unbeaten in 4 regular-season home meetings (3W-1D).
- Sporting KC have lost 9 of 14 overall this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Louis City or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home starts and Sporting's habit of falling behind early give the hosts a decent chance to lead at the break, though confidence is tempered by the post-break uncertainty.
- St Louis City led at halftime in 33% of matches overall, but 50% of home games (3 of 6).
- Sporting KC trailed at halftime in 67% of matches overall, and 71% of away games (5 of 7).
- H2H at St Louis: St Louis led at halftime in 2 of 4 regular-season home meetings.
- St Louis City first-half goals at home: 0.8 per game; Sporting KC first-half goals conceded away: 2.0 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSt Louis CityEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If St Louis can secure a halftime lead, their home advantage and Sporting's poor second-half record make a full-time win plausible, though the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact HT/FT outcomes.
- St Louis City led at halftime and won in 2 of 6 home games this season.
- Sporting KC trailed at halftime and lost in 5 of 7 away games this season.
- H2H at St Louis: St Louis led at halftime and won in 2 of 4 regular-season home meetings.
- Sporting KC have lost 9 of 14 overall, often after conceding early.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableSt Louis City / St Louis CityEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches trend towards high-scoring affairs, especially Sporting's leaky defense on the road, and recent H2H history supports a goal-filled derby.
- St Louis City home matches average 3.0 total goals (11 for, 7 against in 6 games).
- Sporting Kansas City away matches average 3.9 total goals (5 for, 22 against in 7 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (2-2, 2-0, 3-1, 1-1, 3-3).
- Sporting KC concede 2.6 goals per game overall this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown they can find the net in this fixture, and with Sporting's defensive frailties, St Louis should score, while Sporting's desperation may yield a goal.
- St Louis City have scored in 5 of 6 home games this season.
- Sporting Kansas City have scored in 5 of 7 away games this season.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: both teams scored in 4 of 5 (2-2, 3-1, 1-1, 3-3).
- St Louis City concede 1.2 goals per home game; Sporting KC concede 3.1 per away game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's home scoring record and Sporting's abysmal away defense suggest the hosts are likely to net at least twice.
- St Louis City average 1.8 goals per home game this season (11 in 6).
- St Louis City scored 2+ in 4 of 6 home games.
- Sporting KC concede 3.1 goals per away game.
- H2H at St Louis: St Louis scored 2+ in 3 of 4 regular-season home meetings.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSt Louis City over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's tendency to concede early, combined with St Louis's ability to start quickly at home, makes a first-half goal likely.
- St Louis City first-half goals at home: 0.5 per game overall, but scored in first half in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Sporting KC concede 1.4 first-half goals per game overall, and 2.0 per away game on average.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (2-2 had 1, 2-0 had 1, 3-1 had 2, 1-1 had 1, 3-3 had 3).
- Sporting KC trailed at halftime in 67% of matches this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis's home matches tend to produce corners, and with Sporting likely to defend deep, the total could exceed 8.5, though corner data is variable.
- St Louis City average 5.9 corners per game overall, 6.2 at home.
- Sporting Kansas City average 3.6 corners per game overall, 3.1 away.
- Combined average corners in St Louis home games: 10.8 (St Louis 6.2 + opponent 4.6).
- Last 5 H2H: corner counts of 7, 13, 9, 5, 10 (average 8.8).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby intensity and St Louis's slightly higher card count at home suggest a moderate chance of over 3.5 cards, though Sporting's discipline is relatively good.
- St Louis City average 2.5 yellow cards per game overall, 2.8 at home.
- Sporting Kansas City average 1.6 yellow cards per game overall, 1.7 away.
- Combined average cards in St Louis home games: 4.5 (St Louis 2.8 + opponent 1.7).
- Last 5 H2H: card counts of 4, 5, 6, 3, 4 (average 4.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

D2-2St. Louis CityvSporting Kansas CityMay 15, 2025MAJ

L2-0Sporting Kansas CityvSt. Louis CityApr 6, 2025MAJ

L3-1St. Louis CityvSporting Kansas CitySep 29, 2024MAJ

D1-1Sporting Kansas CityvSt. Louis CityJul 21, 2024MAJ

D3-3Sporting Kansas CityvSt. Louis CityApr 21, 2024MAJ

Sporting Kansas City unbeaten in 5 meetings3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	St Louis City	14	4	4	6	16-20	16	WDWWL
15	Sporting Kansas City	14	3	2	9	14-36	11	LWWLD

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

St Louis City

W3-0AustinMay 23MAJ

D1-1DC UnitedMay 16MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles FCMay 14MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsMay 10MAJ

L0-2AustinMay 3MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireApr 30US

L2-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 26MAJ

L1-4Seattle SoundersApr 19MAJ

W4-0FC TulsaApr 16US

D1-1FC DallasApr 12MAJ

D1-1New York City FCApr 4MAJ

W3-1New England RevolutionMar 22MAJ

L0-2Los Angeles FCMar 15MAJ

L0-1Seattle SoundersMar 8MAJ

L0-2San DiegoMar 2MAJ

Sporting Kansas City

L1-2New York Red BullsMay 24MAJ

W2-1AustinMay 17MAJ

W3-1Los Angeles GalaxyMay 14MAJ

L0-6Portland TimbersMay 10MAJ

D1-1Seattle SoundersMay 2MAJ

L0-5Chicago FireApr 26MAJ

L0-3Vancouver WhitecapsApr 18MAJ

L0-3Colorado SpringsApr 15US

L1-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 12MAJ

L1-3Real Salt LakeApr 4MAJ

L1-4Colorado RapidsMar 22MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles GalaxyMar 15MAJ

L0-1San DiegoMar 8MAJ

D2-2Columbus CrewMar 1MAJ

L0-3San Jose EarthquakesFeb 22MAJ

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Sporting Kansas City

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

St Louis City or Draw

St Louis City

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.40

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Louis City

Sporting Kansas City

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

Sporting Kansas City