Seattle Sounders11 – 5Portland Timbers5

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Seattle's strong home form and Portland's poor away record, combined with H2H edge and Portland's coaching instability, give Seattle a clear advantage.

• Seattle home record: 4W-1D-1L, 12 goals for, 7 against in 6 matches this season.
• Portland away record: 1W-1D-6L, 8 goals for, 17 against in 8 matches.
• Last 5 H2H: Seattle 2 wins, 2 draws, Portland 1 win; last meeting Seattle 1-0 at home.
• Portland form last 5: L-L-D-W-L; Seattle form last 5: L-L-W-D-D.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSeattle SoundersEstimated chance55%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Portland's terrible away form and Seattle's solid home record make a Portland win unlikely; Seattle or Draw covers the most probable outcomes.

• Seattle home: only 1 loss in 6 matches.
• Portland away: 6 losses in 8 matches.
• H2H last 5: 4 of 5 ended with Seattle win or draw.
• Portland have conceded in 7 of last 8 away matches.

BetBugs · Double ChancelostSeattle Sounders or DrawEstimated chance80%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The H2H trend of first-half draws is striking, and both teams' first-half records suggest a balanced opening period.

• Seattle first-half record: led at HT in 27% of matches, trailed in 20%.
• Portland first-half record: led at HT in 33%, trailed in 47%.
• Last 5 H2H: HT results: D, D, D, D, D (all draws).
• Seattle home first-half: 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have low-scoring trends, especially in H2H matchups and Portland's away games, pointing to a tight, low-scoring affair.

• Seattle home: 12 goals in 6 matches (2.0 per game), but 4 of 6 had under 2.5 goals.
• Portland away: 8 goals in 8 matches (1.0 per game), 6 of 8 had under 2.5 goals.
• Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
• Seattle overall: 17 goals in 13 matches (1.31 per game), Portland overall: 22 in 14 (1.57 per game).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Portland's away scoring struggles and Seattle's defensive solidity at home suggest at least one team will fail to score.

• Seattle home: clean sheets in 2 of 6 matches, conceded in 4.
• Portland away: failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
• Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 matches.
• Seattle overall: 7 clean sheets in 13 matches; Portland overall: 3 clean sheets in 14.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Seattle's strong defensive record and Portland's away scoring woes give a decent chance of a home clean sheet, though not highly likely.

• Seattle home: 2 clean sheets in 6 matches.
• Portland away: failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
• Seattle overall: 7 clean sheets in 13 matches (54%).
• Portland away goals: 8 in 8 matches (1.0 per game).

BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPortland Timbers not to scoreEstimated chance40%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight first halves in H2H meetings.

• Seattle first-half goals: 0.6 per game; conceded 0.5 per game.
• Portland first-half goals: 1.0 per game; conceded 1.1 per game.
• Last 5 H2H: first-half goals: 0, 1, 1, 0, 1 (all under 1.5).
• Seattle home first-half: 5 goals in 6 matches (0.83 per game).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second-half scoring is also typically low in this fixture, with both teams averaging under a goal per second half.

• Seattle second-half goals: 0.9 per game; conceded 0.4 per game.
• Portland second-half goals: 0.7 per game; conceded 1.0 per game.
• Last 5 H2H: second-half goals: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2 (4 of 5 under 1.5).
• Seattle home second-half: 7 goals in 6 matches (1.17 per game).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams average moderate corner counts, and recent H2H meetings have often stayed under 10 corners.

• Seattle average corners: 4.3 per game; opponent corners: 5.5 per game (total 9.8).
• Portland average corners: 4.3 per game; opponent corners: 6.5 per game (total 10.8).
• Last 5 H2H: total corners: 8, 9, 7, 10, 11 (3 of 5 under 9.5).
• Seattle home corners: 5.0 per game; Portland away corners: 4.1 per game.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The rivalry nature of this match and historical card data suggest a higher likelihood of cards exceeding 4.5.

• Seattle average yellow cards: 2.2 per game; opponent: 2.1 per game.
• Portland average yellow cards: 1.7 per game; opponent: 2.3 per game.
• Last 5 H2H: total cards: 5, 4, 6, 5, 4 (4 of 5 over 4.5).
• Derby context often increases card counts.