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Predictions graded

Mirassol2Gremio RS1

HT 2–0Fri 17 Jul 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 14–9On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 08:16 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation six-pointer restarting after the World Cup pause, with Mirassol’s home edge meeting Grêmio’s structured preparation.

The draw (3.30) and both teams to score (1.88) offer small but clear edges, while over 4.5 cards (1.83) is the strongest value play given both teams’ high booking rates and the match stakes. Avoid the Mirassol or Draw double chance at 1.25—the price is far too short.

Context

Grêmio's official site confirmed three friendlies, with the last on 12 July, and training sessions through 16 July.
- Coach Luís Castro remains in charge, providing continuity during the restart.
- New striker Matheus Nascimento was signed on 9 July, adding a fresh option.
Mirassol's fixture list shows three competitions in quick succession after the restart.
- The club qualified for the Libertadores round of 16 before the pause, adding importance to that tie.
- No injuries are reported, but the calendar may force squad management.
The 2026 Brasileirão table shows Mirassol and Grêmio in the bottom four.
- The bottom four are relegated, making every point critical.
- The first match back from a long pause often sees teams prioritize not losing.
Grêmio's away record: 0W-4D-5L, goals 5-12 in 9 matches.
- They conceded in 8 of 9 away games.
- No away first-half leads all season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High stakes relegation battle combined with Mirassol's balanced home form and Gremio's poor away record (0 wins) suggests a tight, drawn encounter.
- Mirassol home record: 3W-3D-3L (goals 11-11) in 9 Serie A matches this season.
- Gremio away record: 0W-4D-5L (goals 5-12) in 9 Serie A matches this season.
- H2H last 3 meetings: Mirassol 2 wins, Gremio 1 win, all with both teams scoring.
- Both teams are in relegation zone (Mirassol 19th, Gremio 16th) making this a cautious restart match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gremio's inability to win away (0 wins in 9) and Mirassol's solid home form (only 3 losses) make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Mirassol home record: 3W-3D-3L, losing only 3 of 9 home games.
- Gremio away record: 0W-4D-5L, failing to win any away game this season.
- H2H at Mirassol: Mirassol won 3-2 in 2022 Copa do Brasil and 4-1 in 2025 Serie A.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gremio's away first half record shows they rarely lead (0 times) and mostly draw (78%), while Mirassol's home first halves are evenly split between leads and draws, making a draw the most likely HT result.
- Mirassol first half results: led at HT in 6 of 15 (40%), drew in 7 (47%), trailed in 2 (13%).
- Gremio first half results: led in 4 of 14 with data (29%), drew in 8 (57%), trailed in 2 (14%).
- Mirassol home first half: led in 4 of 9 (44%), drew in 4 (44%), trailed in 1 (11%).
- Gremio away first half: led in 0 of 9 (0%), drew in 7 (78%), trailed in 2 (22%).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's home second half record is stronger (44% win rate) compared to Gremio's poor away second half record (only 1 win in 9), suggesting a slight edge for the home side after the break.
- Mirassol second half performance: won second half in 6 of last 15 (40%), drew 5 (33%), lost 4 (27%).
- Gremio second half performance: won second half in 4 of 12 with data (33%), drew 4 (33%), lost 4 (33%).
- Mirassol home second half: won 4 of 9 (44%), drew 3 (33%), lost 2 (22%).
- Gremio away second half: won 1 of 9 (11%), drew 4 (44%), lost 4 (44%).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableMirassolEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the high likelihood of a first half draw and the overall draw倾向 in this matchup, a Draw/Draw double result is a plausible low-probability outcome.
- Mirassol home HT/FT: Draw/Draw occurred in 2 of 9 (22%).
- Gremio away HT/FT: Draw/Draw occurred in 3 of 9 (33%).
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time (Mirassol 47%, Gremio 57% overall).
- Full time draw probability is elevated due to stakes and form.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defenses are vulnerable (Mirassol conceded in 8 of last 15, Gremio conceded in 8 of 9 away) and H2H history shows consistent goals at both ends.
- Mirassol home games: both teams scored in 6 of 9 (67%).
- Gremio away games: both teams scored in 4 of 9 (44%), but they conceded in 8 of 9.
- H2H last 3 meetings: both teams scored in all 3.
- Mirassol averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game over last 15; Gremio 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While both teams have moderate scoring averages, the H2H trend and defensive frailties (especially Gremio away) tilt the match towards over 2.5 goals.
- Mirassol home games: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 9 (56%).
- Gremio away games: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 9 (44%).
- H2H last 3 meetings: over 2.5 goals in all 3 (3-2, 4-1, 1-0).
- Combined average goals per game: Mirassol 2.2, Gremio 2.5 over last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start actively, with Mirassol scoring first half goals in 67% of recent matches and Gremio conceding first half goals in half their games.
- Mirassol first half goals: scored in 10 of last 15 matches (67%), conceded in 7 of 15 (47%).
- Gremio first half goals: scored in 7 of last 12 with data (58%), conceded in 6 of 12 (50%).
- H2H: in the 3 recent meetings, first half goals occurred in 2 of 3 (3-2 had 1 first half goal, 4-1 had 2, 1-0 had 0).
- Mirassol home games: first half goals in 7 of 9 (78%).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams push for a result in a relegation six-pointer, with both sides showing high second half scoring involvement.
- Mirassol second half goals: scored in 11 of last 15 (73%), conceded in 10 of 15 (67%).
- Gremio second half goals: scored in 9 of last 12 with data (75%), conceded in 7 of 12 (58%).
- Combined second half average: Mirassol 1.4 total second half goals per game, Gremio 1.5.
- H2H: second half goals in all 3 meetings (2, 3, 1).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 9 total corners per game, with no strong indication of a high-corner affair, making under 9.5 corners a reasonable expectation.
- Mirassol average corners per game: 4.1 for, 5.3 against = 9.4 total over last 15.
- Gremio average corners per game: 4.2 for, 4.9 against = 9.1 total over last 12 with data.
- Mirassol home corners: average 4.8 for, 4.6 against = 9.4 total.
- Gremio away corners: average 3.8 for, 5.6 against = 9.4 total.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 5 cards per game combined, and the high-stakes relegation battle should lead to a feisty contest with multiple bookings.
- Mirassol average yellow cards: 2.9 per game, opponents 2.5 = 5.4 total over last 15.
- Gremio average yellow cards: 2.4 per game, opponents 2.8 = 5.2 total over last 12 with data.
- Mirassol home cards: average 2.8 yellows, opponents 2.6 = 5.4 total.
- Gremio away cards: average 2.6 yellows, opponents 3.0 = 5.6 total.
- Relegation six-pointer context likely increases intensity and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 0W

W0-1GremiovMirassolSep 13, 2025SA

W4-1MirassolvGremioApr 16, 2025SA

W3-2MirassolvGremioMar 2, 2022COP

Mirassol unbeaten in 3 meetings3.7 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Mirassol Relegation - Serie B	17	4	4	9	18-24	16
16	Gremio RS	18	5	6	7	20-23	21

5pt gap between teamsMirassol in relegation zone

Recent Form

Mirassol

L0-1Atletico ParanaenseMay 30SA

L0-1LanusMay 26CON

W1-0FluminenseMay 23SA

W2-1Always ReadyMay 20CON

L1-3Atletico-MGMay 16SA

W2-1RB BragantinoMay 13COP

D1-1Chapecoense-scMay 10SA

W2-0LDU de QuitoMay 7CON

W2-1CorinthiansMay 3SA

W2-0Always ReadyApr 29CON

L0-1Sao PauloApr 26SA

D1-1RB BragantinoApr 23COP

W2-1InternacionalApr 19SA

L0-2LDU de QuitoApr 15CON

L1-2BahiaApr 11SA

Gremio RS

L1-3CruzeiroJul 12FRI

L1-2Chapecoense-scJul 4FRI

W2-1CascavelJun 27FRI

L1-3CorinthiansMay 30SA

D2-2Atletico TorqueMay 26CON

W3-2SantosMay 23SA

W2-0PalestinoMay 21CON

D1-1BahiaMay 17SA

W3-0ConfiançaMay 14COP

L0-1FlamengoMay 10SA

W3-0Deportivo RiestraMay 5CON

D0-0Atletico ParanaenseMay 2SA

D0-0PalestinoApr 30CON

W1-0CoritibaApr 26SA

W2-0ConfiançaApr 21COP

Squad & Injuries

Mirassol

35 available

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Gremio RS

37 available

Attackers11

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Yes

Over 4.5

Mirassol or Draw

Draw

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Mirassol or Draw

Under 9.5

Under 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mirassol

Gremio RS

Squad & Injuries

Mirassol

Gremio RS