Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Juventude2Cuiaba MT0

HT 1–0Fri 17 Jul 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 14–15On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 13:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude’s exceptional home defense (1 goal conceded in 9 games) makes them favorites, but the value is thin.

The most reliable angle is a low-scoring first half, with under 1.5 goals supported by both teams’ slow starts and strong defensive records. Avoid markets where the odds already price in the likely outcome, such as first-half draw or BTTS No.

Context

Juventude home record: 6W-2D-1L, 12 goals scored, 1 conceded in 9 Serie B matches.
- Last 5 home matches: 4W-1D-0L, 10 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Only Sport Recife have scored against Juventude at home this season, in a 1-0 defeat.
On July 6, Cuiaba confirmed the signings of Jean Dias, Pedro Henrique, and Wesley Dias, all registered in the BID.
- By the July 10 match against São Bernardo, the trio was available and part of the squad.
- The additions provide manager Eduardo Barros with a deeper bench for this away fixture.
CBF's 2026 regulation gives direct promotion to the top two and playoff spots to 3rd-6th.
- As of round 17, Juventude were 6th on 26 points and Cuiaba 10th on 23 points.
- Head-to-head record is the 4th tiebreaker, adding extra significance to this meeting.
Last 5 H2H: 1 Juventude win, 2 Cuiaba wins, 2 draws; all in Serie A (2021-2024).
- Four of those five matches had under 2.5 goals (scores: 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-2).
- At Juventude's home, the last three meetings: 1-1, 0-1, 1-2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Juventude or Draw

1.21fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Juventude's fortress-like home defense (1 goal conceded in 9 games) makes them very hard to beat, and Cuiaba's away form shows they often settle for draws.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's dominant home form (only 1 goal conceded all season) and strong recent run give them a clear edge, though Cuiaba's solid away defense keeps it competitive.
- Juventude home record: 6W-2D-1L, 12 goals scored, 1 conceded in 9 matches (Serie B 2026).
- Juventude last 5 home matches: 4W-1D-0L, 10 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Cuiaba away record: 2W-4D-2L, 6 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 matches (Serie B 2026).
- H2H last 5: Juventude 1W, Cuiaba 2W, 2D; at Juventude home: 1W-1D-1L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuventudeEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's fortress-like home defense (1 goal conceded in 9 games) makes them very hard to beat, and Cuiaba's away form shows they often settle for draws.
- Juventude home record: 6W-2D-1L, 12 goals scored, 1 conceded in 9 matches (Serie B 2026).
- Cuiaba away record: 2W-4D-2L, 6 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 matches (Serie B 2026).
- Juventude last 5 home matches: 4W-1D-0L, 10 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws or Juventude wins out of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJuventude or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at half-time, and their cautious approaches early in matches make a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Juventude home first-half record: led at HT in 33% of matches, trailed in 20% (last 15 matches).
- Cuiaba away first-half record: led at HT in 13%, trailed in 20% (last 15 matches).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at half-time.
- Juventude last 5 home: 3 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's ability to grind out wins after tight first halves at home, combined with Cuiaba's occasional second-half lapses, gives this pattern a plausible but low-probability chance.
- Juventude home: 3 of 9 matches were draw at HT and win at FT.
- Cuiaba away: 2 of 8 matches were draw at HT and lose at FT.
- Last 5 H2H: 1 match followed this pattern (0-0 HT, 1-0 FT for home side).
- Juventude last 5 home: 2 matches draw at HT, win at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / JuventudeEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong defensive records in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history shows low-scoring affairs, making under 2.5 goals highly likely.
- Juventude home matches: 12 goals in 9 games (1.33 per game), only 1 conceded (0.11 per game).
- Cuiaba away matches: 6 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 games (0.75 scored, 0.63 conceded per game).
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals (scores: 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-2).
- Juventude last 5 home: 4 clean sheets, 10 goals scored but 3 of those in one match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's exceptional home defense (1 goal conceded in 9 games) and Cuiaba's modest away scoring output suggest at least one side will fail to score.
- Juventude home: 8 clean sheets in 9 matches (only 1 goal conceded all season at home).
- Cuiaba away: failed to score in 3 of 8 away matches, scored only 6 goals total.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings.
- Juventude last 5 home: 4 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defensive record is outstanding, and while Cuiaba can score away, the likelihood of a clean sheet is high given the home side's consistency.
- Juventude home: 8 clean sheets in 9 matches (89% clean sheet rate).
- Cuiaba away: scored in 5 of 8 away matches, but only 6 goals total.
- Juventude last 5 home: 4 clean sheets, 0 goals conceded.
- H2H: Juventude kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCuiaba MT not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, and H2H history confirms a pattern of few early goals.
- Juventude home first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 0.4 conceded on average (last 15 matches).
- Cuiaba away first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 0.7 conceded on average (last 15 matches).
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- Juventude last 5 home: 3 first-half goals total, 0 conceded.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While first halves are tight, both teams tend to find the net more after the break, and historical data supports at least one second-half goal.
- Juventude home: 12 goals in 9 matches, with 7 of those in the second half (based on recent match data).
- Cuiaba away: 6 goals in 8 matches, 4 in the second half.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had at least one second-half goal.
- Juventude last 5 home: second-half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and while the combined average hovers around 9.5, the lack of clear high-corner trends makes this a low-confidence call.
- Juventude home corners: average 4.7 per match, opponent corners 4.0 (last 15 matches).
- Cuiaba away corners: average 6.1 per match, opponent corners 4.3 (last 15 matches).
- Last 5 H2H: corner data unavailable, but both teams average over 9.5 combined corners in recent matches.
- Juventude last 5 home: total corners 25 (5 per match), opponents 15 (3 per match) = 8 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are close to 4.5, and with the match's competitive stakes, there's a near-even chance of exceeding the line, but evidence is not strong enough for higher confidence.
- Juventude home yellow cards: average 2.2 per match, opponents 2.1 (last 15 matches).
- Cuiaba away yellow cards: average 2.1 per match, opponents 2.0 (last 15 matches).
- Last 5 H2H: card data unavailable, but both teams average around 4.3 combined cards.
- Juventude last 5 home: 11 yellow cards (2.2 per match), opponents 10 (2.0 per match) = 4.2 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1JuventudevCuiabaNov 23, 2024SA

D0-0CuiabavJuventudeSep 5, 2024SA

L1-0CuiabavJuventudeAug 13, 2022SA

L0-1JuventudevCuiabaApr 24, 2022SA

L1-2JuventudevCuiabaSep 11, 2021SA

Cuiaba MT unbeaten in 5 meetingsCuiaba MT: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Juventude Promotion Play-offs	17	8	5	4	17-8	29	WDWWW
11	Cuiaba MT	17	5	9	3	14-11	24	DWDLW

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Juventude

W1-0Vila NovaJul 10SER

D0-0Nautico RecifeJul 5SER

W2-0CearaJun 28SER

W1-0São BernardoJun 21SER

W3-0Ponte PretaJun 14SER

L1-2Operario-PRJun 5SER

W3-0America MineiroMay 30SER

L0-1Sport RecifeMay 23SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 17SER

W3-1Sao PauloMay 13COP

D0-0CriciumaMay 10SER

W2-1TombenseMay 7COP

D0-0Atletico GoianienseMay 3SER

L2-3CianorteApr 30COP

W1-0LondrinaApr 26SER

Cuiaba MT

D2-2São BernardoJul 12SER

W1-0America MineiroJul 2SER

D2-2LondrinaJun 25SER

L0-1AvaiJun 21SER

W1-0Vila NovaJun 14SER

W2-1Ponte PretaJun 9SER

W2-0CRBMay 31SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeMay 22SER

D0-0NovorizontinoMay 16SER

D0-0Athletic ClubMay 9SER

D1-1CriciumaMay 2SER

L0-4AnápolisApr 29COP

D1-1Botafogo SPApr 23SER

W2-0GoiasApr 19SER

L2-3Porto VitóriaApr 15COP

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

56 available

Attackers12

Midfielders19

Defenders20

Goalkeeper5

Cuiaba MT

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Juventude

Under 2.5

Juventude or Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Juventude

Cuiaba MT

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

Cuiaba MT