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Predictions graded

Bodo/Glimt1Fredrikstad0

HT 1–0Fri 17 Jul 2026, 17:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 19–1On targetOn target 5–0CornersCorners 12–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 12:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt are strong favorites to beat Fredrikstad, but the odds are too short for value.

The best betting edge is on Both Teams to Score – No, with Glimt's home clean sheet record and Fredrikstad's away scoring woes offering a 9-point value gap. Over 3.5 goals also presents a small edge, while the match winner market should be avoided.

Context

Bodø/Glimt have 26 points from 12 matches, one behind Viking and two behind Tromsø with games in hand.
- Fredrikstad are 10th with 14 points, just two above 14th-place KFUM and three above 15th-place Kristiansund.
- Official tables on July 13 confirm the tight standings at both ends.
Official club updates on June 30 and July 1 confirmed Helstrup's move to Malmö and Bjørkan's departure.
- Bodø/Glimt still list Knutsen as head coach, so this is a backroom shake-up rather than a managerial change.
- The timing is close to the match, potentially disrupting routines.
Fredrikstad's official preview on July 9 said the Lillestrøm match was Røjkjær's third competitive game.
- His first two results were a 1-1 away draw at Sandefjord and a 2-1 home win over Start.
- The small sample size means the team's tactical identity is still forming.
Fredrikstad's July 11 lineup note confirmed Leo and Solo Owusu were back after layoffs since May 16 and April 12.
- Johannes Nuñez returned after being out since April 19.
- Max Nilsson also made his first start, further boosting options.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's dominant home form and Fredrikstad's poor away record, combined with a strong H2H history, make a home win highly likely.
- Bodo/Glimt home record this season: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 16 goals scored, 2 conceded in 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses, 6 goals scored, 14 conceded in 6 matches.
- H2H last 5: Bodo/Glimt won 4, drew 1; at home they won 5-0 and 4-0 in last two meetings.
- Bodo/Glimt form last 5 Eliteserien matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 14 goals scored, 3 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong first-half performances and Fredrikstad's tendency to trail early make a home half-time lead probable.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 73% of last 15 matches; Fredrikstad trailed at half-time in 47%.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.2 first-half goals; Fredrikstad concede 0.9 first-half goals on average.
- Bodo/Glimt home first-half record: led in 4 of 5 Eliteserien matches.
- H2H: Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's habit of leading at half-time and winning, especially at home, supports a HT/FT double.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time and won in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Fredrikstad trailed at half-time and lost in 5 of last 15 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt home HT/FT: led at half-time and won in 4 of 5 Eliteserien matches.
- H2H: Bodo/Glimt led at half-time and won in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableBodo/Glimt/Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's high-scoring attack and Fredrikstad's leaky away defense point strongly to over 2.5 goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.9 goals per match in last 15; Fredrikstad concede 1.7 per match.
- Bodo/Glimt home matches average 3.6 total goals (16 scored, 2 conceded in 5).
- Fredrikstad away matches average 3.33 total goals (6 scored, 14 conceded in 6).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 5-0, 1-0, 2-2, 2-0, 4-0 – 3 of 5 over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong defensive record at home and Fredrikstad's away scoring struggles suggest a clean sheet for the hosts.
- Bodo/Glimt kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 home Eliteserien matches.
- Fredrikstad failed to score in 3 of last 6 away matches.
- Bodo/Glimt conceded only 0.8 goals per match on average in last 15.
- H2H: Bodo/Glimt kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's home defensive solidity and Fredrikstad's away offensive struggles make a home clean sheet likely.
- Bodo/Glimt home clean sheets: 4 in 5 Eliteserien matches this season.
- Fredrikstad away goals scored: 6 in 6 matches, failing to score in 3.
- Bodo/Glimt overall goals conceded average: 0.8 per match in last 15.
- H2H: Bodo/Glimt kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFredrikstad not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's prolific home scoring and Fredrikstad's away defensive frailties support the hosts scoring over 2.5 goals.
- Bodo/Glimt scored 3+ goals in 4 of 5 home Eliteserien matches this season.
- Bodo/Glimt average 2.9 goals per match overall in last 15.
- Fredrikstad conceded 14 goals in 6 away matches (2.33 per match).
- H2H: Bodo/Glimt scored 5 and 4 goals in last two home meetings.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBodo/Glimt over 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's early scoring threat and Fredrikstad's first-half defensive issues suggest over 1.5 goals in the first half.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.2 first-half goals; Fredrikstad concede 0.9 first-half goals.
- Bodo/Glimt home first-half goals: 8 in 5 matches (1.6 per match).
- Fredrikstad away first-half goals conceded: 7 in 6 matches (1.17 per match).
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a total above 9.5, though Fredrikstad's low corner count adds uncertainty.
- Bodo/Glimt average 6.9 corners per match; Fredrikstad average 4.8 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 11.7 per match.
- Bodo/Glimt home corners: 6.8 average in last 5 home Eliteserien matches.
- Fredrikstad away corners: 4.7 average in last 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's higher foul and card rates, especially away, could push the total over 3.5 cards.
- Fredrikstad average 1.8 yellow cards per match; Bodo/Glimt average 0.8.
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.6 per match, but Fredrikstad's away matches see more cards (2.3 per match).
- Fredrikstad fouls average 12.4 per match; Bodo/Glimt 9.8.
- H2H: last 5 meetings averaged 2.8 cards, but recent Fredrikstad matches have seen higher card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 7 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W5-0Bodo/GlimtvFredrikstadNov 30, 2025ELI

W0-1FredrikstadvBodo/GlimtJul 16, 2025ELI

D2-2Bodo/GlimtvFredrikstadNov 10, 2024ELI

W0-2FredrikstadvBodo/GlimtApr 1, 2024ELI

W4-0Bodo/GlimtvFredrikstadAug 16, 20171.

Bodo/Glimt unbeaten in 5 meetingsBodo/Glimt: 4 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Bodo/Glimt Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	11	7	2	2	28-11	23	DWWWL
9	Fredrikstad	12	4	2	6	15-22	14	LWDWL

9pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Bodo/Glimt

W4-0StartJul 4FRI

W4-1MoldeJun 28FRI

D2-2RosenborgMay 29ELI

W3-1BrannMay 24ELI

W4-1StartMay 20ELI

W5-0TromsoMay 16ELI

L0-1MoldeMay 4ELI

W5-0StartApr 30ELI

W2-0LillestromApr 26ELI

W3-0AalesundApr 18ELI

D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FFApr 15ELI

L0-5VikingApr 11ELI

W3-0Kristiansund BKApr 6ELI

W4-0LillestromMar 22NM

W3-0Sporting CPMar 11UEF

Fredrikstad

L0-2LillestromJul 11ELI

L1-3ValerengaJul 4FRI

D0-0IF ElfsborgJun 28FRI

D1-1Ham-KamJun 20FRI

W2-1StartMay 29ELI

D1-1SandefjordMay 25ELI

W2-1Ham-KamMay 16ELI

L1-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMay 9ELI

L1-3BrannMay 2ELI

L1-2VikingApr 25ELI

L0-2Kristiansund BKApr 19ELI

D1-1ValerengaApr 12ELI

W3-2AalesundApr 7ELI

W3-1KFUM OsloMar 22ELI

L2-3KFUM OsloMar 19NM

Squad & Injuries

Bodo/Glimt

26 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Fredrikstad

28 available

Attackers3

Midfielders8

Defenders14

Goalkeeper3

Bodo/Glimt1Fredrikstad0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

No

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt/Bodo/Glimt

Over 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 2 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt or Draw

Bodo/Glimt, draw no bet

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bodo/Glimt

Fredrikstad

Squad & Injuries

Bodo/Glimt

Fredrikstad