Primera División - AperturaFull time

Predictions graded

Albion Montevideo0Juventud de Las Piedras1

HT 0–0Fri 17 Jul 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 23:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Albion's home scoring power against Juventud's leaky away defense makes over 1.5 Albion goals the standout value at 2.20 (+19.5pt edge), but the fixture's uncertain competition status (likely not Apertura) adds risk.

Avoid the short-priced home win and double chance, which offer no value.

Context

The Apertura's final matchdays were on May 10-11, 2026, per the tournament source.
- The fixture is listed as Primera División - Apertura but with a July 17 date, which is inconsistent.
- If this is a Clausura or friendly match, team motivations and form could differ significantly.
Albion scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 home Apertura matches (vs. Central Espanol, Club Nacional, Wanderers, Cerro Largo).
- They average 2.25 goals per home game in the Apertura (18 goals in 8 matches).
- Juventud conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away Apertura matches.
Juventud conceded 2.0 goals per away game in the Apertura (14 goals in 7 matches).
- They lost 4 of their last 5 away Apertura matches (vs. Club Nacional, Danubio, Cienciano, and a draw at Defensor Sporting).
- Albion scored in 7 of their 8 home Apertura matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Albion Montevideo or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Albion's strong home form and Juventud's poor away record make an Albion win or draw highly likely, but odds are short and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Albion's strong home form and Juventud's poor away record, combined with a positive H2H trend, give Albion a clear edge despite the fixture date uncertainty.
- Albion are 4th in the Apertura with 28 points from 15 games, while Juventud are 14th with 15 points.
- Albion have won 4 of their last 5 home matches in the Apertura, scoring 18 goals in 8 home games.
- Juventud have lost 4 of their last 5 away matches in the Apertura, conceding 14 goals in 7 away games.
- H2H: Albion have won the last two meetings, both away from home, including a 1-0 win in March 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlbion MontevideoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albion's superior league position and home resilience, plus Juventud's away struggles, make an Albion win or draw highly likely.
- Albion have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches in the Apertura (W3 D1 L1).
- Juventud have won only 1 of their last 7 away matches in the Apertura (W1 D2 L4).
- Albion's overall Apertura record: 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses; Juventud: 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses.
- H2H: Albion are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings (W2 D1).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAlbion Montevideo or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Albion's superior first-half performance at home and Juventud's poor first-half record away give the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Albion have led at halftime in 3 of their last 5 home matches in the Apertura.
- Juventud have trailed at halftime in 3 of their last 5 away matches in the Apertura.
- Albion's first-half goal difference at home: +5 (9 scored, 4 conceded).
- Juventud's first-half goal difference away: -3 (5 scored, 8 conceded).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAlbion MontevideoEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for high-scoring games, especially Albion at home and Juventud away, pushing the total over 2.5 goals.
- Albion's home matches in the Apertura average 3.75 total goals (18 scored, 12 conceded in 8 games).
- Juventud's away matches in the Apertura average 3.29 total goals (9 scored, 14 conceded in 7 games).
- Albion have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Juventud have conceded at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Albion's attacking strength at home and Juventud's defensive fragility on the road, combined with both teams' recent scoring records, suggest both will find the net.
- Albion have scored in 7 of their 8 home Apertura matches, but also conceded in 6 of those 8.
- Juventud have scored in 5 of their 7 away Apertura matches, but conceded in all 7.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Albion's last 6 home matches across all competitions.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Juventud's last 5 away matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albion's consistent home scoring and Juventud's leaky away defense make it likely that the home side will score at least twice.
- Albion have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches in the Apertura.
- Albion average 2.25 goals per home game in the Apertura (18 goals in 8 matches).
- Juventud have conceded at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches in the Apertura.
- Juventud's away defensive record: 2.0 goals conceded per game on average.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAlbion Montevideo over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventud's ability to score on the road, coupled with Albion's occasional defensive lapses at home, points to an away goal.
- Juventud have scored in 5 of their 7 away Apertura matches.
- Albion have conceded in 6 of their 8 home Apertura matches.
- Juventud average 1.29 goals per away game in the Apertura.
- Albion have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 8 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonJuventud de Las Piedras over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Albion's tendency to start fast at home and Juventud's early defensive vulnerabilities suggest at least one goal in the first half.
- Albion have scored a first-half goal in 6 of their last 8 home matches in the Apertura.
- Juventud have conceded a first-half goal in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Apertura.
- Albion's first-half goal average at home: 1.13 (9 goals in 8 games).
- Juventud's first-half goal concession average away: 1.14 (8 goals in 7 games).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to open up after halftime, with Albion pushing for goals and Juventud often conceding late, making over 1.5 second-half goals plausible.
- Albion's home matches in the Apertura average 2.0 second-half goals (9 scored, 7 conceded in 8 games).
- Juventud's away matches in the Apertura average 2.14 second-half goals (4 scored, 11 conceded in 7 games).
- Albion have scored in the second half in 6 of their last 8 home matches.
- Juventud have conceded in the second half in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data for Albion reduces confidence, but Juventud's involvement in high-corner games and the league average support a moderate chance of over 8.5 corners.
- Juventud average 4.8 corners per game overall this season, but corner data for Albion is unavailable.
- In Juventud's recent Sudamericana matches with corner data, total corners were 11, 5, 13, and 9.
- Albion's corner data is missing, but their attacking style at home suggests they could contribute to a higher corner count.
- The average total corners in Uruguayan Primera matches this season is approximately 9.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-1JuventudvAlbion FCMar 22, 2026PRI

W0-2JuventudvAlbion FCOct 23, 2024COP

D0-0JuventudvAlbion FCSep 25, 2024SEG

L1-0Albion FCvJuventudJun 11, 2024SEG

D1-1Albion FCvJuventudMar 24, 2024SEG

Albion Montevideo: 3 clean sheetsJuventud de Las Piedras: 2 clean sheets1.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División - Apertura 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Albion Montevideo Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)	20	9	6	5	30-21	33	DWLLD
14	Juventud de Las Piedras	20	5	4	11	24-33	19	LDLLW

14pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Albion Montevideo

D1-1Deportivo MaldonadoJul 10PRI

W2-1ProgresoJun 7PRI

L1-2Atletico TorqueMay 31PRI

L0-1Club NacionalMay 23PRI

D0-0WanderersMay 17PRI

W1-0DanubioMay 9PRI

W3-2Club NacionalMay 3PRI

W2-1Deportivo MaldonadoApr 25PRI

W6-1Central EspanolApr 17PRI

W1-0Atletico TorqueApr 11PRI

D2-2Cerro LargoApr 5PRI

D1-1Defensor SportingMar 31PRI

W2-1WanderersMar 25PRI

W1-0JuventudMar 22PRI

L0-1PenarolMar 14PRI

Juventud de Las Piedras

L1-3Atletico TorqueJul 11PRI

D1-1DanubioJul 5PRI

L1-2Club NacionalJun 6PRI

L2-5WanderersMay 31PRI

D1-1CiencianoMay 27CON

D1-1Puerto CabelloMay 21CON

W2-0ProgresoMay 16PRI

W2-1Defensor SportingMay 10PRI

D2-2Atletico-MGMay 5CON

W2-1WanderersMay 2PRI

W4-0Puerto CabelloApr 29CON

D1-1Liverpool MontevideoApr 25PRI

D2-2PenarolApr 20PRI

L1-2Atletico-MGApr 16CON

W1-0ProgresoApr 12PRI

Squad & Injuries

Albion Montevideo

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Juventud de Las Piedras

35 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Yes

Albion Montevideo or Draw

Albion Montevideo

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Albion Montevideo or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Albion Montevideo

Juventud de Las Piedras

Squad & Injuries

Albion Montevideo

Juventud de Las Piedras