Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

CRB AL2Nautico PE1

HT 1–0Thu 16 Jul 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 20–6On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 07:49 · Europe/Bucharest

CRB's new manager bounce and Nautico's off-field distractions (Dodô saga, salary delays) create a situational edge for the home side, but the market overprices a CRB win (1.95, implied 51% vs. 38% estimate).

Both teams to score is the most balanced market (1.60, 60% estimate), while over 4.5 cards offers a slim positive edge (1.73, 60% estimate). Avoid backing CRB outright or the double chance due to poor value.

Context

Barroca left after the 5-0 defeat to Londrina in round 16.
- Matias was appointed and by July 11 said he had spoken to Barroca to understand the squad.
- The club is still waiting for the transfer ban to be lifted, so new signings cannot be registered.
Dodô missed training without explanation before the Avaí match.
- He returned to the CT on July 10 but did not travel for the game.
- Jeonbuk Hyundai interest was reported, and Nautico planned talks with the player and his representatives.
On July 9, ge reported one month of image-rights payments due June 20 were delayed.
- One month of registered salary was also overdue.
- Dos Anjos confirmed the delays and framed them as normal cash-flow issues.
Nautico's official schedule lists Avaí away on July 12 and CRB away on July 16.
- The team will only return home on July 22.
- This is their second consecutive away match with only four days between games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CRB AL

1.96fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 51%

0.0ppshort

New coach bounce and Nautico's off-field distractions (salary delays, Dodô saga) give CRB a situational edge, but the raw home form does not support a 51% implied probability.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CRB AL or Draw

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

CRB's home struggles and Nautico's away resilience make the 82% implied probability too high; our 65% estimate reflects the genuine uncertainty.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have high BTTS rates in their respective home/away splits (CRB 71% home, Nautico 75% away), and recent form supports both scoring.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

CRB home matches average 3.29 total goals, Nautico away matches average 3.5, and both teams' recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's new coach bounce and home advantage give them a slight edge, but Nautico's stronger away scoring record and recent H2H success keep it close.
- CRB home record: 2W-1D-4L, 12 goals scored, 11 conceded in 7 home matches this season.
- Nautico away record: 3W-2D-3L, 15 goals scored, 13 conceded in 8 away matches.
- CRB last 5 matches: 1W-2D-2L, including a 5-0 loss to Londrina, but a new coach bounce expected.
- H2H last 5: CRB 1W, Nautico 2W, 2 draws; at CRB's home (2022) Nautico won 2-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCRB ALEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's home form is poor but the new coach factor and Nautico's off-field distractions increase the likelihood of CRB avoiding defeat.
- CRB home matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses; 43% of home games ended in win or draw.
- Nautico away matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses; 62.5% of away games ended in win or draw for Nautico.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 ended in draw or CRB win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCRB AL or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at halftime, with CRB's home advantage offset by Nautico's resilience.
- CRB home first-half results: led at HT in 40% of matches, trailed in 33%.
- Nautico away first-half results: led at HT in 20% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at HT, 2 Nautico leads, 1 CRB lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's stronger second-half home form and Nautico's tendency to fade away suggest CRB could edge the second half.
- CRB home second-half performance: won second half in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Nautico away second-half performance: lost second half in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- CRB last 5 matches: won second half in 2, drew 2, lost 1.
- Nautico last 5 matches: won second half in 1, drew 1, lost 3.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCRB ALEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a CRB win is a plausible scenario given CRB's second-half strength at home.
- CRB home matches: 2 of 7 ended in draw at HT and CRB win at FT.
- Nautico away matches: 1 of 8 ended in draw at HT and Nautico loss at FT.
- CRB last 5 matches: 1 draw/win HT/FT.
- Nautico last 5 matches: 1 draw/loss HT/FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / CRB ALEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring trends in their respective home/away splits, and recent form supports a goal-heavy match.
- CRB home matches average 3.29 total goals (12 scored, 11 conceded in 7 games).
- Nautico away matches average 3.5 total goals (15 scored, 13 conceded in 8 games).
- CRB last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Nautico last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High BTTS rates in both teams' home/away splits and recent form make it likely both will score.
- CRB home matches: both teams scored in 5 of 7 (71%).
- Nautico away matches: both teams scored in 6 of 8 (75%).
- CRB last 5 matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
- Nautico last 5 matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's home first-half scoring is decent, but Nautico's low first-half scoring away makes this a borderline call.
- CRB home first-half goals: average 0.9 scored, 0.8 conceded per match overall; last 5 home matches: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
- Nautico away first-half goals: average 0.4 scored, 0.7 conceded overall; last 5 away: 0.6 scored, 1.0 conceded.
- CRB last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Nautico last 5 matches: 2 of 5 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, especially CRB at home, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- CRB home second-half goals: average 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded in last 5 home matches.
- Nautico away second-half goals: average 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded in last 5 away matches.
- CRB last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Nautico last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, and recent matches consistently exceed 9.5 total corners.
- CRB home matches average 5.8 corners for, opponent corners 5.3; total average 11.1.
- Nautico away matches average 6.4 corners for, opponent corners 4.1; total average 10.5.
- CRB last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 9.5 corners.
- Nautico last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high card averages, and recent matches consistently exceed 4.5 total cards.
- CRB home matches average 2.5 yellow cards, opponent 2.1; total 4.6.
- Nautico away matches average 2.7 yellow cards, opponent 2.6; total 5.3.
- CRB last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards.
- Nautico last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average high shot totals, but recent variance makes this a borderline over.
- CRB home matches average 16.7 shots, opponent 12.9; total 29.6.
- Nautico away matches average 17.5 shots, opponent 10.5; total 28.0.
- CRB last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 25.5 shots.
- Nautico last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 25.5 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 25.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1Nautico RecifevCRBMar 24, 2024COP

D2-2Nautico RecifevCRBFeb 4, 2023COP

L2-1Nautico RecifevCRBAug 10, 2022SER

W1-2CRBvNautico RecifeApr 27, 2022SER

W1-3Nautico RecifevCRBSep 28, 2021SER

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	CRB AL	16	5	4	7	24-29	19	LWDDL
12	Nautico PE	16	6	3	7	21-19	21	DLLDL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

CRB AL

L0-5LondrinaJul 4SER

W1-0Botafogo SPJun 30SER

D1-1Fortaleza ECJun 21SER

D3-3Atletico GoianienseJun 12SER

L2-3São BernardoJun 7SER

L0-2CuiabaMay 31SER

W4-2Ponte PretaMay 24SER

W2-1Sport RecifeMay 17SER

D0-0Fortaleza ECMay 14COP

W3-0Operario-PRMay 9SER

W2-1America MineiroMay 3SER

W3-0SousaApr 30COP

L1-3CriciumaApr 26SER

L1-2Fortaleza ECApr 22COP

L0-1JuventudeApr 18SER

Nautico PE

D0-0JuventudeJul 5SER

L0-1GoiasJun 28SER

L3-4Vila NovaJun 20SER

D2-2NovorizontinoJun 14SER

L0-1Fortaleza ECJun 9SER

L0-2Sport RecifeMay 30SER

W1-0CuiabaMay 22SER

W6-2Operario-PRMay 16SER

W4-0America MineiroMay 10SER

D1-1Botafogo SPMay 2SER

W1-0Athletic ClubApr 27SER

L0-3São BernardoApr 18SER

L0-1CearaApr 11SER

W1-0Ponte PretaApr 4SER

W2-1Atletico GoianienseApr 1SER

Squad & Injuries

CRB AL

43 available

Attackers10

Midfielders14

Defenders15

Goalkeeper4

Nautico PE

42 available

Attackers11

Midfielders15

Defenders14

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 4.5

CRB AL

CRB AL or Draw

Yes

Over 2.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

CRB AL

CRB AL or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

CRB AL

Nautico PE

Squad & Injuries

CRB AL

Nautico PE