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Predictions graded

CF Montreal0Toronto0

HT 0–0Thu 16 Jul 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 14–8On targetOn target 3–0CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 09:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Toronto are unbeaten in the last five 90-minute H2H meetings and face a Montreal side on short rest after a July 12 cup tie, making Draw or Toronto (1.80) a high-confidence edge.

Both teams score and concede freely, with over 2.5 goals (1.55) and both teams to score (1.53) offering clear value in a fixture that has averaged 4.4 goals across the last five derbies.

Context

Montreal hosted Vancouver FC on July 12 in the Canadian Championship, winning 2-1 in the first leg.
- The match is just four days before the July 16 derby against Toronto.
- Short rest periods in MLS often force squad rotation and can reduce second-half performance.
Toronto are unbeaten in the last five 90-minute H2H meetings (3 wins, 2 draws).
- Toronto scored 15 goals in those five matches, including 6-1 and 5-1 wins.
- The last four MLS meetings have seen Toronto win twice and draw twice.
Montreal confirmed Eullaffroy as caretaker for the rest of 2026 on April 12.
- The club fired Marco Donadel earlier in the season amid underperformance.
- Caretaker setups often lack the tactical authority and long-term planning of a permanent hire.
Laryea started all of Canada's matches at the 2026 World Cup.
- He was selected for the MLS All-Star Game on July 29, indicating high recent workload.
- Key defenders returning from international duty often face managed minutes or performance dips.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Toronto's strong H2H psychology and Montreal's short turnaround from a cup tie give the visitors an edge, despite their poor away form.
- Toronto are unbeaten in the last five H2H meetings in 90 minutes, winning three and drawing two.
- Montreal have lost 8 of their last 15 matches overall and have a negative goal difference of -9.
- Toronto's away record is poor (1 win, 4 losses in 5 away games), but they have scored in 4 of those 5 away matches.
- Montreal played a cup match on July 12, just four days before this derby, potentially causing fatigue.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTorontoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Toronto's H2H dominance and Montreal's fatigue, the visitors are unlikely to lose, making Draw or Toronto a high-probability outcome.
- Toronto have not lost any of the last five H2H meetings in 90 minutes (3 wins, 2 draws).
- Montreal have won only 3 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Toronto have drawn 5 of their 14 league matches this season, showing resilience to avoid defeat.
- Montreal's home record is decent (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), but they face a short rest period.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or TorontoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Montreal's tendency to start strong and Toronto's poor first-half record give the home side a slight edge to lead at the break, though overall match dynamics may shift later.
- Montreal have led at halftime in 47% of their matches this season.
- Toronto have trailed at halftime in 47% of their matches.
- Montreal scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Toronto conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCF MontrealEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Toronto's stronger second-half scoring record and Montreal's potential fatigue make the visitors likely to dominate after the break.
- Toronto have scored 60% of their goals in the second half this season.
- Montreal have conceded 61% of their goals in the second half.
- In the last H2H meeting, Toronto scored 4 second-half goals to win 6-1.
- Montreal's fatigue from a midweek cup match may impact their second-half performance.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableTorontoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half could see a draw, but Toronto's superior second-half performance and Montreal's fatigue may lead to a Toronto win, making Draw/Toronto a plausible HT/FT double.
- Toronto have drawn at halftime in 40% of their matches but often improve in the second half.
- Montreal have drawn at halftime in 13% of matches, but their second-half record is mixed.
- In the last H2H, Toronto were drawing 1-1 at halftime before winning 6-1.
- Toronto's second-half goal difference is +3, while Montreal's is -5.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/TorontoEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net, and the H2H history shows a strong pattern of both teams scoring, making BTTS Yes highly likely.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Montreal have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches, averaging 1.9 goals per game.
- Toronto have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
- Toronto have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches, with an average of 2.1 goals conceded per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring H2H history combined with both teams' leaky defenses and consistent goal involvement makes Over 2.5 goals a strong prediction.
- The last five H2H meetings have produced 4, 7, 4, 1, and 6 goals, averaging 4.4 goals per game.
- Montreal's matches average 3.7 total goals (1.9 scored, 1.8 conceded).
- Toronto's matches average 3.6 total goals (1.5 scored, 2.1 conceded).
- Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 11 of their last 15 matches each.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Montreal's strong first-half scoring trend and Toronto's vulnerability early in games suggest a lively opening period with at least two goals.
- Montreal average 1.0 first-half goals per game, with 47% of matches leading at halftime.
- Toronto concede an average of 0.9 first-half goals per game.
- In the last five H2H meetings, first-half goals totals were: 0, 2, 3, 0, 3 (average 1.6).
- Montreal have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Montreal's early scoring form and Toronto's defensive lapses could lead to both teams finding the net before halftime, though the H2H pattern is not overwhelmingly strong.
- Montreal have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have conceded in the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- In the last five H2H meetings, both teams scored in the first half in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montreal's home scoring record and Toronto's leaky away defense suggest the hosts can score at least twice.
- Montreal average 1.9 goals per game overall and 1.67 goals per home game.
- Toronto concede an average of 2.1 goals per game overall and 2.2 goals per away game.
- Montreal have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 6 home matches.
- In the last five H2H meetings, Montreal scored 2+ goals in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCF Montreal over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's historical dominance in this fixture, often scoring multiple goals, combined with Montreal's defensive vulnerabilities, makes Over 1.5 away goals likely.
- Toronto average 1.5 goals per game overall and 1.0 goals per away game.
- Montreal concede an average of 1.8 goals per game overall and 1.17 goals per home game.
- Toronto have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- In the last five H2H meetings, Toronto scored 2+ goals in 4 matches, including 6 and 5 in two games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostToronto over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners individually, and their H2H history shows consistent double-digit corner totals, supporting Over 9.5 corners.
- Montreal average 5.4 corners per game, while Toronto average 5.6.
- Combined, the teams average 11.0 corners per game.
- In the last five H2H meetings with corner data, totals were: 10, 19, 8, 5, 14 (average 11.2).
- Both teams' playing styles involve wide attacks, leading to higher corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The Canadian Classique derby typically sees aggressive play, and both teams' card averages plus H2H history point to at least 5 cards.
- Montreal average 2.6 yellow cards per game, Toronto average 2.1.
- Combined, the teams average 4.7 cards per game.
- In the last five H2H meetings with card data, totals were: 6, 5, 7, 4, 6 (average 5.6).
- Derby matches often feature heightened intensity and more fouls.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1Toronto FCvCF MontrealAug 30, 2025MAJ

L1-6CF MontrealvToronto FCMay 17, 2025MAJ

D2-2Toronto FCvCF MontrealApr 30, 2025CAN

L0-1CF MontrealvToronto FCJul 20, 2024MAJ

L5-1Toronto FCvCF MontrealMay 18, 2024MAJ

Toronto unbeaten in 5 meetings4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22-31	14	DLDWL
13	Toronto	14	3	5	6	22-29	14	LLLDL

Recent Form

CF Montreal

W2-1Vancouver FCJul 9CAN

D4-4DC UnitedMay 23MAJ

L0-2Chicago FireMay 16MAJ

D2-2Portland TimbersMay 13MAJ

W2-0Orlando City SCMay 9MAJ

W5-0Calgary Blizzard SCMay 6CAN

L1-3Atlanta United FCMay 2MAJ

W1-0New York City FCApr 25MAJ

W4-1New York Red BullsApr 18MAJ

L1-2Philadelphia UnionApr 11MAJ

L0-3New England RevolutionApr 4MAJ

L3-4FC CincinnatiMar 22MAJ

L1-2Orlando City SCMar 14MAJ

W3-0New York Red BullsMar 8MAJ

L0-3Chicago FireFeb 28MAJ

Toronto

L1-2Chicago FireMay 24MAJ

L1-3CharlotteMay 16MAJ

L2-4Inter MiamiMay 9MAJ

L1-3Atlético OttawaMay 5CAN

D1-1San Jose EarthquakesMay 2MAJ

L1-2Atlanta United FCApr 25MAJ

D3-3Philadelphia UnionApr 22MAJ

D3-3AustinApr 18MAJ

D1-1FC CincinnatiApr 11MAJ

W3-2Colorado RapidsApr 4MAJ

W2-1Columbus CrewMar 21MAJ

D1-1New York Red BullsMar 14MAJ

W1-0FC CincinnatiMar 8MAJ

L0-3Vancouver WhitecapsMar 1MAJ

L2-3FC DallasFeb 22MAJ

Squad & Injuries

CF Montreal

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Toronto

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders14

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Toronto

Toronto

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

CF Montreal

Toronto

Squad & Injuries

CF Montreal

Toronto