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Predictions graded

France0Spain2

HT 0–1Tue 14 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 10–10On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 7–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

World Cup match context

Context last updated 11 Jul 2026, 07:32 · Europe/Bucharest

A Bastille Day World Cup semifinal between in-form France and Spain is primed for goals: over 2.5 goals (75% estimate, 1.88 line) and both teams to score (70%, 1.65) offer strong value, backed by a 4.2-goal average in recent H2H and both sides' consistent scoring.

Avoid the France or Draw double chance (negative edge) and over 4.5 goals (low probability); the draw at 3.20 is a slim value play in a match too close to call.

Context

FFF coverage on 10 July confirms this is Deschamps' last tournament on the bench.
- The semifinal falls on Bastille Day, France's national holiday, amplifying the occasion.
- France are chasing a third consecutive World Cup final appearance.
De la Fuente said Spain can beat any team and framed France as 'another final' on 10 July.
- RFEF notes Spain have reached only their second World Cup semifinal in history.
- Spain are unbeaten in 15 matches and have won 11 of their last 15.
Spain beat France 5-4 in the 2025 Nations League semifinal and 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semifinal.
- The last five H2H meetings produced 4.2 goals per game on average.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five H2H encounters.
France have won 13 of their last 15 matches, losing only once (a friendly).
- Spain are unbeaten in 15 matches (11 wins, 4 draws) and have kept 11 clean sheets in that span.
- Both teams won all their World Cup 2026 knockout matches without needing extra time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Two evenly matched, in-form teams in a high-stakes semifinal are likely to cancel each other out over 90 minutes, with a draw a strong possibility given the balance of power and recent tight H2H margins.
- France's last 15: 13 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; Spain's last 15: 11 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses.
- H2H last 5: Spain 3 wins, France 1 win, 1 draw (but France won the only World Cup knockout meeting in 2006).
- Both teams are in excellent form: France WWWWW, Spain WWWWW in last 5 overall.
- Knockout semifinal context often leads to cautious starts; 3 of last 5 H2H were decided by 1 goal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
France's resilience and tournament experience, combined with home-like support (venue in USA with large French diaspora), make them unlikely to lose in regulation; a draw or narrow France win is the most probable outcome.
- France have lost only 1 of last 15 matches (friendly vs Ivory Coast).
- Spain are unbeaten in last 15, but have drawn 4 times, including 0-0 vs Cape Verde and Egypt.
- France's World Cup 2026 record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 10 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- H2H at neutral venues: Spain edge recent meetings, but France's knockout pedigree (2018 winners, 2022 finalists) is strong.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFrance or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the high stakes and solid first-half defensive records, a stalemate at the break is plausible, though either side could nick a lead; the draw is the single most likely halftime outcome.
- France led at halftime in 9 of last 15, trailed in 1; Spain led in 9, trailed in 0.
- In last 5 H2H, halftime results: 2-2, 1-0 Spain, 1-0 France, 1-0 Spain, 1-0 Spain — 3 of 5 were one-goal leads, 1 draw.
- Both teams have strong first-half defenses: France conceded 0.3 first-half goals, Spain 0.2.
- Knockout semifinals often see cautious first halves; 0-0 at halftime in 2 of France's last 5 and 2 of Spain's last 5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is uncommon for these sides, but the semifinal pressure and defensive quality could produce a rare stalemate; confidence is low due to both teams' tendency to find a winner.
- France had 3 draws at halftime in last 15, with 1 ending in a draw (2-2 vs Iceland).
- Spain had 5 draws at halftime in last 15, with 3 ending in draws (0-0 vs Cape Verde, 1-1 vs Iraq, 0-0 vs Egypt).
- H2H: only 1 of last 5 was a draw at halftime (5-4, which ended in a Spain win).
- Both teams are strong front-runners: when leading at halftime, France won 9/9, Spain won 9/9.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring trends in recent H2H and France's overall attacking output, combined with knockout stakes that force open play if a goal is conceded, make over 2.5 goals likely.
- France averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over last 15 matches, with 12 of 15 seeing over 2.5 total goals.
- Spain averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over last 15, with 8 of 15 over 2.5, but recent H2H: 5-4 and 2-1 both over 2.5.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, with an average of 4.2 total goals per game.
- France's last 5 matches: 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 4-1, 3-0 — 3 of 5 over 2.5; Spain's last 5: 2-1, 1-0, 3-0, 1-0, 4-0 — 2 of 5 over 2.5, but facing stronger opposition here.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and H2H history shows frequent exchanges; even with strong defenses, the attacking quality on both sides should yield at least one goal each.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (5-4, 2-1, 2-1, 2-0).
- France scored in 14 of last 15 matches; Spain scored in 13 of last 15.
- France conceded in 7 of last 15; Spain conceded in only 4 of last 15, but against elite attacks they have conceded (Belgium, Portugal, Turkey).
- In World Cup 2026, France scored 10 in 3 games, Spain scored 5 in 3 but faced weaker groups.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start quickly, with high first-half scoring averages and a history of early goals in head-to-head clashes, making a goalless first half unlikely.
- France averaged 1.0 first-half goals in last 15, leading at halftime in 60% of matches.
- Spain averaged 1.3 first-half goals, leading at halftime in 60% of matches.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches (5-4 had 2 first-half goals, 2-1 had 1, 2-1 had 1, 2-0 had 1).
- Both teams scored in the first half in 2 of those 5 H2H.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With the match likely tight at halftime, the second half should see more attacking urgency, leading to at least two goals after the break.
- France scored 1.6 second-half goals on average in last 15; Spain scored 1.1.
- In last 5 H2H, second-half goals: 3, 1, 1, 1, 1 — average 1.4, with 3 of 5 over 1.5.
- Both teams tend to push late: France scored after 75' in 5 of last 15; Spain in 4 of last 15.
- Knockout matches often open up in second half if score is close.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spain's consistent scoring record and recent success against France's defense make a French clean sheet unlikely.
- France kept clean sheets in 8 of last 15, but conceded in 3 of last 5 H2H against Spain.
- Spain failed to score in only 2 of last 15 matches (0-0 vs Cape Verde and Egypt).
- Spain scored in all 3 World Cup 2026 matches (2 vs Belgium, 1 vs Portugal, 3 vs Austria).
- France's defense has been solid (0.7 goals conceded per game), but Spain's attack averages 2.4 goals per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSpain to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
France's potent attack, which has scored in nearly every recent match, should breach Spain's defense at least once, denying a clean sheet.
- Spain kept clean sheets in 11 of last 15, but conceded in 4 of last 5 H2H against France.
- France failed to score in only 1 of last 15 matches (friendly vs Ivory Coast).
- France scored in all 3 World Cup 2026 matches (2 vs Morocco, 1 vs Paraguay, 3 vs Sweden).
- Spain's defense is elite (0.3 goals conceded per game), but France averages 2.6 goals scored.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFrance to scoreEstimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Possession-dominant styles from both sides typically generate corners; combined with H2H history averaging near 10, over 9.5 corners is a reasonable expectation.
- France averaged 6.5 corners per game in last 15, Spain 7.3.
- In last 5 H2H, corner counts: 5-5, 6-3, 4-5, 8-2, 5-4 — average 9.8 total corners.
- Both teams average high possession (France 63%, Spain 67%), leading to sustained pressure and corners.
- In World Cup 2026, France had 5, 12, 9 corners; Spain had 5, 7, 9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H card counts and the elevated tension of a World Cup semifinal suggest a moderately high card total, with over 3.5 cards likely.
- France averaged 1.3 yellow cards per game in last 15, Spain 0.9, but knockout intensity raises card counts.
- In last 5 H2H, total cards: 4, 5, 3, 2, 5 — average 3.8 cards per game.
- Referee assignment unknown, but World Cup semifinals often see stricter officiating.
- Both teams have disciplined records, but high stakes and tactical fouling could increase cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L5-4SpainvFranceJun 5, 2025UEF

L2-1SpainvFranceJul 9, 2024EUR

W1-2SpainvFranceOct 10, 2021UEF

L0-2FrancevSpainMar 28, 2017FRI

L2-0SpainvFranceJun 23, 2012EUR

Spain: 2 clean sheets3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

World Cup 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	France Round of 32	3	3	0	0	10-2	9	WWWWW
1	Spain Round of 32	3	2	1	0	5-0	7	WWWWW

2pt gap between teamsFrance leads the league

Recent Form

France

W2-0MoroccoJul 9WOR

W1-0ParaguayJul 4WOR

W3-0SwedenJun 30WOR

W4-1NorwayJun 26WOR

W3-0IraqJun 22WOR

W3-1SenegalJun 16WOR

W3-1Northern IrelandJun 8FRI

L1-2Ivory CoastJun 4FRI

W3-1ColombiaMar 29FRI

W2-1BrazilMar 26FRI

W3-1AzerbaijanNov 16WOR

W4-0UkraineNov 13WOR

D2-2IcelandOct 13WOR

W3-0AzerbaijanOct 10WOR

W2-1IcelandSep 9WOR

Spain

W2-1BelgiumJul 10WOR

W1-0PortugalJul 6WOR

W3-0AustriaJul 2WOR

W1-0UruguayJun 27WOR

W4-0Saudi ArabiaJun 21WOR

D0-0Cape Verde IslandsJun 15WOR

W3-1PeruJun 9FRI

D1-1IraqJun 4FRI

D0-0EgyptMar 31FRI

W3-0SerbiaMar 27FRI

D2-2TürkiyeNov 18WOR

W4-0GeorgiaNov 15WOR

W4-0BulgariaOct 14WOR

W2-0GeorgiaOct 11WOR

W6-0TürkiyeSep 7WOR

Squad & Injuries

France

26 available

Attackers2

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Spain

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

Draw

Over 3.5

France or Draw

Draw

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 4.5

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

France

Spain

Squad & Injuries

France

Spain