Division IntermediaFull time

Predictions graded

Deportivo Capiata1Tembetary3

HT 0–1Mon 13 Jul 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 08:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Capiata’s unbeaten home record and promotion push give them a clear edge, but the odds are too short to back a home win.

The only market with a marginal value edge is Both Teams to Score ‘Yes’ at 1.73, with Capiata scoring in all home games and Tembetary netting in most away matches. Avoid the match winner and double chance due to negative expected value.

Context

Capiata home record: 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses (16 goals scored, 8 conceded).
- Tembetary away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses (10 goals scored, 10 conceded).
- Capiata have scored in all seven home matches this season.
APF round-13 report had Capiata on 21 points, with the top two on 27 and 24 points.
- Only the top two clubs are promoted in the 30-round Intermedia season.
- If two clubs finish level for the title, a playoff decides the champion, keeping incentive high.
Tembetary's relegation was confirmed with eight matches left in the 2025 top-flight season.
- They have lost four of seven away matches in the current Intermedia campaign.
- Tembetary have conceded 10 goals in those seven away games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Deportivo Capiata

1.75fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 57%

0.0ppshort

Capiata are unbeaten at home (5W-2D) while Tembetary have lost 4 of 7 away, but the odds imply a 57% win probability, which is above our 48% estimate.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo Capiata or Draw

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Capiata's unbeaten home record and Tembetary's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo Capiata's strong home form (unbeaten, 5W-2D) and promotion motivation give them a clear edge over Tembetary, who struggle away (4 losses in 7).
- Deportivo Capiata are unbeaten at home this season: 5 wins, 2 draws in 7 home matches (16 goals scored, 8 conceded).
- Tembetary have lost 4 of 7 away matches this season, conceding 10 goals.
- Capiata have promotion stakes, sitting 5th with 21 points, only 6 points off top, while Tembetary are mid-table with 18 points.
- Last 5 home matches for Capiata: 4 wins, 1 draw, scoring 12 goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo CapiataEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Capiata's unbeaten home record and Tembetary's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Capiata have not lost at home this season (5 wins, 2 draws).
- Tembetary have only 2 wins in 7 away matches, with 4 losses.
- Capiata's home goal difference is +8; Tembetary's away goal difference is -1.
- Capiata have drawn 6 of 13 overall, showing resilience.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDeportivo Capiata or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Capiata's home first-half scoring edge and Tembetary's away first-half defensive weakness give Capiata a slight advantage to lead at the break, though draws are common.
- Capiata have led at halftime in 33% of matches overall, but at home they have led in 3 of 7 (43%).
- Tembetary have trailed at halftime in 20% of matches overall, but away they have trailed in 3 of 7 (43%).
- Capiata have scored first-half goals in 5 of 7 home matches.
- Tembetary have conceded first-half goals in 5 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDeportivo CapiataEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Capiata's ability to hold a halftime lead at home, combined with Tembetary's poor away record when behind, gives a low-probability chance for a HT/FT double.
- Capiata have led at halftime and won the match in 3 of 7 home games.
- Tembetary have trailed at halftime and lost the match in 2 of 7 away games.
- Capiata's home record shows they often win after leading at halftime.
- Tembetary have not won any away match when trailing at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDeportivo Capiata / Deportivo CapiataEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring trends in their respective home/away splits, with Capiata's home games averaging over 3 goals, suggesting a strong chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Capiata's home matches average 3.4 total goals (16 scored, 8 conceded in 7 games).
- Tembetary's away matches average 2.7 total goals (9 scored, 10 conceded in 7 games).
- Capiata have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 home matches.
- Tembetary have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in their respective home/away fixtures, with Capiata scoring in every home game and Tembetary scoring in most away games, making BTTS likely.
- Capiata have scored in all 7 home matches this season.
- Tembetary have scored in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Capiata have kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
- Tembetary have kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Capiata's strong home scoring record, with 2+ goals in most home games, against a Tembetary defense that often concedes multiple goals away, supports over 1.5 home goals.
- Capiata have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- Capiata average 2.3 goals per home match.
- Tembetary have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of 7 away matches.
- Capiata have scored in every home match this season.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostDeportivo Capiata over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Capiata's tendency to score early at home and Tembetary's vulnerability to conceding first-half goals on the road make over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- Capiata have scored a first-half goal in 5 of their last 7 home matches.
- Tembetary have conceded a first-half goal in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
- Capiata average 0.9 first-half goals per match overall.
- Tembetary average 0.5 first-half goals conceded per match overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data makes this speculative, but Tembetary's involvement in matches averaging 9 corners suggests a moderate chance of over 8.5 corners.
- Tembetary average 4.5 corners per match overall (limited data from 2 recent matches with corner stats).
- No corner data available for Capiata's recent matches.
- Tembetary's opponents average 4.5 corners in those 2 matches.
- Typical Intermedia matches average around 8-9 corners based on league trends.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With only Tembetary's card data available, and typical league card averages, over 3.5 cards is a balanced low-confidence call.
- Tembetary average 2.5 yellow cards per match (based on 2 recent matches with card data).
- No card data available for Capiata.
- Tembetary's opponents average 1.5 yellow cards in those 2 matches.
- Intermedia matches often see 3-4 cards on average.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L2-0Atlético TembetaryvDeportivo CapiataAug 9, 2022COP

2 goals/game avg

League Table

Division Intermedia 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Deportivo Capiata	13	5	6	2	20-15	21	DWDWL
9	Tembetary	13	5	3	5	20-19	18	DLDWL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Deportivo Capiata

D1-1Benjamín AcevalJul 6DIV

W5-2Sportivo CarapeguáJun 27DIV

D1-112 de Junio VHJun 6DIV

W1-0EncarnaciónMay 31DIV

L0-1Deportivo SantaniMay 23DIV

W2-1Fernando De La MoraMay 19DIV

D0-03 de NoviembreMay 14DIV

W2-1General CaballeroMay 10DIV

L1-3Guairena FCMay 1DIV

D1-1ResistenciaApr 25DIV

D1-1SOL DE AmericaApr 18DIV

W3-1Paraguari ACApr 13DIV

D2-2Independiente F.b.c.Apr 4DIV

D2-2Sportivo CarapeguáOct 4DIV

L1-2Independiente F.b.c.Sep 29DIV

Tembetary

D2-2Independiente F.b.c.Jul 7DIV

L2-4TacuaryJun 27DIV

D1-1Paraguari ACJun 4DIV

W4-3Benjamín AcevalMay 30DIV

L0-1Sportivo CarapeguáMay 25DIV

L0-112 de Junio VHMay 20DIV

W2-0EncarnaciónMay 16DIV

D1-1Deportivo SantaniMay 11DIV

L0-1Fernando De La MoraMay 4DIV

W1-03 de NoviembreApr 27DIV

L1-2General CaballeroApr 19DIV

W3-2Guairena FCApr 10DIV

W3-1ResistenciaApr 5DIV

L0-2Cerro PortenoNov 30DIV

D1-1Sportivo TrinidenseNov 20DIV

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Capiata

51 available

Attackers13

Midfielders15

Defenders19

Goalkeeper4

Tembetary

17 available

Attackers5

Midfielders5

Defenders6

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Deportivo Capiata

Deportivo Capiata or Draw

Over 2.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Deportivo Capiata

Deportivo Capiata or Draw

Over 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Deportivo Capiata

Tembetary

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo Capiata

Tembetary