EliteserienFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Brann2Start Kristiansand1

HT 0–0Sun 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 14–17On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jul 2026, 08:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Brann are heavily favoured to beat bottom-side Start, with a new-manager bounce and dominant H2H record, but the 1.33 odds offer no value.

Instead, look to corners over 9.5 or cards over 3.5 for potential low-confidence edges, and avoid the short-priced home win and goals markets.

Context

Horneland was rehired on 2 July on a deal through 2030, with Erik Huseklepp, Morten Kalvenes and Hassan El Fakiri joining the staff.
- Brann's 3 July friendly was described as a return to the familiar high press, and the club flagged Start as Horneland's first league game back.
- New-manager bounce often leads to increased intensity and early goals, especially at home.
Start's away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, 7 goals scored, 21 conceded in 7 matches.
- They have conceded 3 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 away league matches.
- Brann's high press under Horneland is designed to force mistakes, which could exploit Start's shaky back line.
Tønnessen started Start's first five league matches before his injury.
- He underwent leg surgery during the summer break and faces months of rehab.
- Start signed defender Jens Husebo from Tromso on 23 June, but integrating a new defender mid-season is challenging.
Magnusson played his first Brann minutes since 5 October 2025 on 3 July after knee surgery and complications.
- He scored 10 goals in his first 16 games for the club before the injury.
- His return gives Brann another attacking option, though match fitness may be limited.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Brann

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Brann's strong H2H record, Start's terrible away form, and the motivational edge from the new manager and relegation pressure make a home win highly likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Brann or Draw

1.10fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90.9%

−5.9ppshort

Given Start's poor away form and Brann's historical dominance in this fixture, it is very unlikely that Start will win, making Brann or Draw a safe outcome.

1 St Half Resultnot gradableUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Brann

1.70fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Brann's aggressive start under the new manager and Start's defensive issues suggest Brann are more likely to be ahead at the break.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Start's leaky defense (2.4 conceded/game) and Brann's attacking intent under Horneland point to at least 3 goals, but odds are short.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 3 of Brann's last 5 home games and 4 of Start's last 7 away games, but odds are tight.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to see early goals, but the odds offer no value given the high implied probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's strong H2H record, Start's terrible away form, and the motivational edge from the new manager and relegation pressure make a home win highly likely.
- Brann are unbeaten in last 5 H2H (W3 D2), including 1-0 and 2-0 wins in 2022.
- Start have 0 away wins this season (D1 L6) with 7 goals scored and 21 conceded in 7 away matches.
- Brann have a new-manager bounce with Horneland rehired on 2 July, emphasizing high press.
- Start are 16th with 7 points, 4 points from safety; Brann are 11th with 13 points, only 2 above relegation playoff.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBrannEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Start's poor away form and Brann's historical dominance in this fixture, it is very unlikely that Start will win, making Brann or Draw a safe outcome.
- Brann are unbeaten in last 5 H2H (W3 D2).
- Start have not won away this season (D1 L6).
- Brann have lost only 3 of 5 home matches, but those were against top-half sides; Start are bottom.
- New manager bounce typically reduces chance of defeat.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBrann or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann's aggressive start under the new manager and Start's defensive issues suggest Brann are more likely to be ahead at the break.
- Brann led at halftime in 40% of their last 15 matches; Start trailed at halftime in 36% of theirs.
- In H2H last 5, Brann led at halftime in 2 matches (1-0, 2-0), drew in 3.
- Brann's new high-press style may lead to early dominance against a struggling Start defense.
- Start have conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBrannEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not the most likely exact outcome, Brann's ability to start strong and Start's poor away record make a Brann/Brann double a reasonable low-probability pick.
- Brann led at halftime in 40% of last 15 matches and won 40% overall.
- Start trailed at halftime in 36% and lost 58% of matches.
- In H2H, Brann led at halftime and won in 2 of last 5 (1-0, 2-0).
- New manager bounce may lead to a fast start and sustained performance.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableBrann/BrannEstimated chance35%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Start's leaky defense, especially away from home, combined with Brann's attacking intent under new management, points to a match with at least 3 goals.
- Brann average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over last 15 matches; Start average 1.0 scored and 2.4 conceded.
- Start have conceded 28 goals in 12 league matches (2.33 per game), including 21 in 7 away games (3.0 per game).
- Brann's last 5 home league matches: 1-2, 2-1, 3-1, 0-1, 1-2 — 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5: 1-0, 0-2, 1-1, 1-1, 4-1 — 2 of 5 over 2.5, but current defensive frailties of Start suggest more goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent ability to score but also defensive vulnerabilities, making it likely that each side finds the net.
- Brann have scored in 11 of their last 12 league matches; Start have scored in 8 of their last 12.
- Start have conceded in 11 of 12 league matches; Brann have conceded in 10 of 12.
- Brann's home record: 7 goals scored, 7 conceded in 5 matches — both teams scored in 3 of those 5.
- Start's away record: 7 goals scored, 21 conceded in 7 matches — both teams scored in 4 of those 7.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see early goals, and with Brann's high press under Horneland, a first-half goal is very likely.
- Brann average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Start average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- In Brann's last 5 home league matches, first-half goals occurred in all 5 (1, 1, 1, 1, 2).
- Start's last 5 away league matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (1, 2, 1, 2, 0).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Start's defense tends to collapse later in games, and Brann's fitness and pressing could lead to multiple second-half goals.
- Brann's last 5 home matches: second-half goals: 1, 2, 2, 0, 2 — 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Start's last 5 away matches: second-half goals: 3, 2, 5, 2, 1 — all 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Start have conceded 21 away goals, many in the second half as they tire.
- Brann average 1.9 goals per game, often scoring in both halves.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's attacking approach and Start's tendency to concede corners could push the total over 9.5, though Start's low corner count adds uncertainty.
- Brann average 6.4 corners per match; Start average 3.3 corners per match, but concede many corners (opponents average 5.9 against Start).
- In Brann's last 5 home matches with corner data, total corners: 13, 6, 5, 13, 15 — 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Start's last 5 away matches with corner data: total corners: 3, 6, 14, 6, 9 — 2 of 5 over 9.5.
- Brann's high possession (57.2%) and attacking style generate corners; Start's defensive shape may concede them.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's home corner numbers are consistently high, and against a weak Start side, they should exceed 5.5 corners.
- Brann average 6.4 corners per match overall; at home, they have had 8, 3, 7, 11, 6 in last 5 with data — 4 of 5 over 5.5.
- Start concede an average of 5.9 corners per match away from home.
- Brann's possession and attacking width under Horneland should produce corners.
- In H2H, Brann had 6 corners in the 1-0 win in 2022 (data limited).
BetBugs · Home CornerslostBrann over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high stakes and physical nature of the match, combined with both teams' card averages, suggest over 3.5 cards is likely.
- Brann average 1.6 yellow cards per match; Start average 2.3 yellow cards per match.
- In Brann's last 5 home matches, total cards: 4, 4, 2, 3, 4 — 4 of 5 over 3.5.
- Start's last 5 away matches: total cards: 4, 1, 5, 3, 4 — 3 of 5 over 3.5.
- Relegation six-pointer intensity often leads to more fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

W1-0BrannvStartAug 4, 20221.

W0-2StartvBrannJul 7, 20221.

D1-1StartvBrannDec 9, 2020ELI

D1-1BrannvStartJul 19, 2020ELI

W4-1BrannvStartAug 6, 2018ELI

Brann unbeaten in 5 meetingsBrann: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Brann	12	4	1	7	24-20	13	LLLWW
16	Start Kristiansand Relegation - OBOS-ligaen	12	1	4	7	13-28	7	LWLLD

6pt gap between teamsStart Kristiansand in relegation zone

Recent Form

Brann

L1-2Kristiansund BKJul 3FRI

W2-1Aarhus FremadJun 26FRI

L1-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMay 29ELI

L1-3Bodo/GlimtMay 24ELI

L1-2AalesundMay 20ELI

W2-1KFUM OsloMay 16ELI

W3-1FredrikstadMay 2ELI

W5-0TromsoApr 29ELI

D1-1RosenborgApr 25ELI

W2-1AalesundApr 22NM

L2-3VikingApr 18ELI

L0-1SandefjordApr 12ELI

W5-1Ham-KamApr 6ELI

L1-2TromsoMar 22ELI

W2-1BryneMar 19NM

Start Kristiansand

L0-4Bodo/GlimtJul 4FRI

L1-2FredrikstadMay 29ELI

W2-0ValerengaMay 25ELI

L1-4Bodo/GlimtMay 20ELI

L3-6VikingMay 16ELI

D1-1TromsoMay 3ELI

L0-5Bodo/GlimtApr 30ELI

L1-2Ham-KamApr 26ELI

D1-1MoldeApr 19ELI

L1-3LillestromApr 11ELI

D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FFApr 6ELI

L0-1TromsoMar 27FRI

D1-1AalesundMar 21ELI

L0-2KFUM OsloMar 15ELI

L2-3SandefjordMar 8FRI

Squad & Injuries

Brann

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Start Kristiansand

28 available

Attackers4

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Brann

Brann or Draw

Brann

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Brann

Brann or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Brann

Start Kristiansand

Squad & Injuries

Brann

Start Kristiansand