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Predictions graded

Rhode Island FC1Brooklyn FC1

HT 1–1Sat 11 Jul 2026, 23:36 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Jul 2026, 16:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Rhode Island are favorites but offer no value at 1.62 (our win probability: 45%).

The best betting edges are Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.73 (+7% edge) and Brooklyn Over 0.5 goals at 1.50 (+8% edge), capitalizing on both teams' consistent scoring and defensive frailties. Avoid the match-winner and double-chance markets due to overpriced odds.

Context

USL Cup standings show seven group winners plus one wild card advance, with goals scored as the first tiebreaker.
- Rhode Island's preview explicitly states they need a win to stay in contention.
- Brooklyn's preview notes a win plus a Hartford slip could send them through as group winners.
Brooklyn's July 9 preview confirms the 2-0 win at Pittsburgh was the first away win in men's club history.
- The win came during a three-game road trip, showing improved resilience.
- Brooklyn have lost only once in their last five matches (2W-2D-1L).
Rhode Island's last match was a 2-1 loss at Sacramento on July 9 (local time).
- Brooklyn's preview explicitly notes Rhode Island are on short rest after the cross-country trip.
- The quick turnaround could affect Rhode Island's pressing intensity and late-game energy.
Rhode Island beat Brooklyn 4-1 at Centreville Bank Stadium on May 23, 2026.
- The match was the only competitive meeting between the clubs.
- Rhode Island's core attack from that match remains intact, per their official preview.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rhode Island FC or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Rhode Island are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions, while Brooklyn have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's dominant H2H win at this venue and strong home cup form give them a slight edge, but Brooklyn's improved away form keeps it close.
- Rhode Island won the only competitive H2H 4-1 at this venue on 2026-05-23.
- Rhode Island home record in USL Cup group stage: 1-0-0, 3 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Brooklyn away record in USL Cup group stage: 1-0-0, 3 goals scored, 0 conceded, but that was against a weaker opponent.
- Rhode Island overall form last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, scoring 1.8 goals per game; Brooklyn: 2W-1D-2L, scoring 1.8 goals per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRhode Island FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's strong home form and Brooklyn's historically poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Rhode Island have not lost at home in the USL Cup group stage (1 win, 0 draws).
- Brooklyn have only 1 away win in club history, achieved in their last away match.
- Rhode Island are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Brooklyn have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches in all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRhode Island FC or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's home advantage and Brooklyn's tendency to start slowly on the road give the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Rhode Island led at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches; Brooklyn led in 2 of their last 5.
- Rhode Island's home first-half record: led in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Brooklyn's away first-half record: led in 1 of last 5 away matches.
- The previous H2H saw Brooklyn lead 2-1 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRhode Island FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is possible given the stakes, with Rhode Island's home strength potentially breaking the deadlock in the second half.
- Rhode Island have drawn at half-time and won full-time in 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Brooklyn have drawn at half-time and lost full-time in 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- The previous H2H was not a draw at half-time.
- Rhode Island's home form suggests they can grind out a win after a tight first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Rhode Island FCEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring trends in recent form and the previous H2H, combined with both teams needing a win, point to over 2.5 goals.
- Rhode Island's last 5 matches averaged 3.0 total goals; Brooklyn's averaged 3.2.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Rhode Island's last 5 matches and 3 of Brooklyn's last 5.
- The only competitive H2H ended 4-1.
- USL Cup group stage matches involving these teams average 3.8 goals (Rhode Island: 13 goals in 3 games; Brooklyn: 11 goals in 3 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in recent matches, and the must-win context encourages attacking play, making BTTS likely.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Rhode Island's last 5 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Brooklyn's last 5 matches.
- Brooklyn have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Rhode Island have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's strong home scoring record and Brooklyn's leaky away defense suggest the hosts will score at least twice.
- Rhode Island scored 4 goals in the only competitive H2H at this venue.
- Rhode Island have scored at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Rhode Island average 1.9 goals per game over their last 15 matches.
- Brooklyn have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostRhode Island FC over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's consistent away scoring and Rhode Island's home defensive vulnerabilities make an away goal very probable.
- Brooklyn have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Brooklyn average 1.5 goals per game over their last 15 matches.
- Rhode Island have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Brooklyn scored 1 goal in the previous H2H at this venue.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBrooklyn FC over 0.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and the high-stakes context should lead to an open first half with at least one goal.
- Rhode Island's last 5 matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (avg 0.8 first-half goals).
- Brooklyn's last 5 matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (avg 1.2 first-half goals).
- The previous H2H had 3 first-half goals (1-2).
- Both teams have a 33% leading-at-half-time rate, indicating early action.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are common in these teams' matches, and the tactical need to chase a result could inflate the second-half total.
- Rhode Island's last 5 matches averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- Brooklyn's last 5 matches averaged 1.4 second-half goals.
- The previous H2H had 2 second-half goals.
- Must-win scenario may lead to late-game urgency and goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data, but the attacking nature of both teams and the previous H2H suggest a moderately high corner count.
- Corner data is unavailable for recent matches, but both teams average high shot volumes in the USL Cup (Rhode Island: 13 shots/game, Brooklyn: 12 shots/game in group stage).
- The previous H2H had 11 corners (6 for Rhode Island, 5 for Brooklyn).
- Must-win context typically increases attacking intent and corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

L4-1Rhode IslandvBrooklynMay 23, 2026USL

D0-0Rhode IslandvBrooklynFeb 28, 2026FRI

2.5 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One Cup 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Rhode Island FC	3	1	1	1	8-5	5	WLW
2	Brooklyn FC	3	2	0	1	8-3	6	WLW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Rhode Island FC

L1-2Sacramento RepublicJul 9USL

D1-1Orange County SCJul 4USL

W4-1Loudoun UnitedJun 13USL

W3-0Westchester SCJun 6USL

L0-1Indy ElevenMay 30USL

W4-1BrooklynMay 23USL

L1-2Portland Hearts of PineMay 16USL

D1-1Tampa Bay RowdiesMay 9USL

L1-3Birmingham LegionMay 2USL

W4-0Charleston BatteryApr 22USL

W3-1LexingtonApr 11USL

D0-0Detroit CityApr 4USL

W2-0Hartford AthleticApr 1US

L1-2Miami FCMar 28USL

L2-4Louisville CityMar 21USL

Brooklyn FC

W2-0Pittsburgh RiverhoundsJul 4USL

L0-2Tampa Bay RowdiesJun 20USL

D2-2Louisville CityJun 14USL

W5-1Portland Hearts of PineJun 7USL

D2-2Sporting JAXMay 31USL

L1-4Rhode IslandMay 23USL

L0-2Hartford AthleticMay 16USL

L0-1Loudoun UnitedMay 9USL

L2-3Miami FCMay 2USL

W3-0NY CosmosApr 25USL

D1-1Sacramento RepublicApr 21USL

W3-0Charleston BatteryApr 11USL

L0-1Louisville CityMar 28USL

L0-3LexingtonMar 25USL

L1-2Hartford AthleticMar 21USL

Squad & Injuries

Rhode Island FC

23 available

Attackers5

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Brooklyn FC

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0