Serie BFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Juventude1Vila Nova0

HT 1–0Fri 10 Jul 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 6–0On targetOn target 4–0CornersCorners 1–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jul 2026, 07:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude's exceptional home defense (1 goal conceded in 8 games) and Vila Nova's inconsistent away form make a low-scoring home win or draw the most likely outcome.

The best betting value lies in Under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.38, with an 18-point edge, while the heavily juiced Double Chance market offers no value. Monitor Vila Nova's potential new signings, as their availability could shift the dynamics.

Context

Vila Nova have five signings lined up, with four domestic arrivals (Igor Cariús, Higor Meritão, Breno, Caíque Jesus) eligible for regularization in the July 6-17 window.
- CBF rules allow a new player to act from the day after BID publication, so this match falls within the availability swing.
- The potential injection of fresh talent could disrupt Juventude's defensive rhythm, especially if attacking options are added.
On July 6, Mandaca addressed Grêmio pre-contract talk and denied signing anything, but the situation remains unresolved.
- Transfer chatter around a key midfielder can be a distraction, especially in a match with significant table implications.
- Juventude's recent signing Léo Jabá is ineligible until August 9, so no immediate reinforcement is available.
CBF's 2026 Serie B regulation: 1st and 2nd go up directly, 3rd-6th enter two-legged playoffs for the other two spots.
- Tiebreakers prioritize wins, goal difference, goals scored, and head-to-head, so margin and result matter.
- Vila Nova explicitly identified this match as part of a four-game stretch against direct access rivals.
Juventude home record: 5W-2D-1L, 11 goals for, 1 against in 8 matches.
- The only home goal conceded was against Sport Recife in a 0-1 loss.
- Last five home matches: 4W-1L, 9 goals for, 1 against, with four clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's exceptional home defensive record (1 goal conceded in 8 home games) combined with Vila Nova's inconsistent away form gives the hosts a clear edge, amplified by the high-stakes promotion battle.
- Juventude home record: 5W-2D-1L, 11 goals for, 1 against in 8 matches (Serie B 2026).
- Vila Nova away record: 3W-2D-3L, 9 goals for, 9 against in 8 matches (Serie B 2026).
- Juventude last 5 home matches: 4W-1L, 9 goals for, 1 against, including wins over Ceara, Ponte Preta, America Mineiro, and Londrina.
- Vila Nova last 5 away matches: 2W-1D-2L, 5 goals for, 5 against, with losses to Novorizontino and Cuiaba.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuventudeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's fortress-like home form (87.5% unbeaten) and Vila Nova's mediocre away performances make a home win or draw highly probable, especially in a direct promotion clash where Juventude will be highly motivated.
- Juventude home record: 5W-2D-1L, 87.5% unbeaten at home (Serie B 2026).
- Vila Nova away record: 3W-2D-3L, only 37.5% win rate on the road.
- Juventude have lost only 1 of 8 home matches this season, conceding just 1 goal.
- Vila Nova have failed to win in 5 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJuventude or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half draws, with Juventude drawing 50% of home first halves and Vila Nova drawing 37.5% of away first halves, indicating a balanced start is likely in this tight contest.
- Juventude first-half results at home: 3W-4D-1L, 50% draws.
- Vila Nova first-half results away: 2W-3D-3L, 37.5% draws.
- Juventude overall first-half results: 5W-5D-5L, 33% draws.
- Vila Nova overall first-half results: 5W-5D-5L, 33% draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's pattern of drawing at half-time before winning at home (3 of 8 matches) aligns with their strong second-half performances, while Vila Nova have occasionally lost after a drawn first half away, making this a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Juventude home matches: 3 of 8 had a draw at half-time and a Juventude win at full-time.
- Vila Nova away matches: 1 of 8 had a draw at half-time and a Vila Nova loss at full-time.
- Juventude have won 5 of 8 home matches, with 3 of those wins coming after a drawn first half.
- Vila Nova have lost 3 of 8 away matches, with 1 of those losses coming after a drawn first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / JuventudeEstimated chance25%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's matches are extremely low-scoring, especially at home (1.38 total goals per game), and Vila Nova's away games also trend under 2.5 goals (5 of 8), making a low-scoring affair likely in this high-pressure promotion six-pointer.
- Juventude home matches: 11 goals in 8 games, average 1.38 total goals per game; 7 of 8 home games had under 2.5 goals.
- Vila Nova away matches: 18 goals in 8 games, average 2.25 total goals per game; 5 of 8 away games had under 2.5 goals.
- Juventude overall: 16 goals for, 8 against in 15 matches, average 1.6 total goals per game.
- Vila Nova overall: 23 goals for, 17 against in 15 matches, average 2.67 total goals per game, but away games are tighter.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's defensive solidity at home (7 clean sheets in 8 games) suggests they can shut out Vila Nova, who have struggled to score in away matches against organized defenses, making both teams scoring unlikely.
- Juventude home clean sheets: 7 of 8 home matches, conceded only 1 goal.
- Vila Nova away scoring: failed to score in 3 of 8 away matches, including against Cuiaba and Goias.
- Juventude overall clean sheets: 9 of 15 matches, including 5 of last 6 home games.
- Vila Nova overall clean sheets: 5 of 15 matches, but only 2 away clean sheets.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defensive record is outstanding (7 clean sheets in 8 games), and Vila Nova's away attack is inconsistent, making a home clean sheet a strong possibility in this tight promotion battle.
- Juventude home clean sheets: 7 of 8 matches, only goal conceded was to Sport Recife.
- Vila Nova away goals scored: 9 in 8 matches, but 4 came in one game against Nautico; shut out in 3 of 8 away games.
- Juventude last 5 home matches: 4 clean sheets, including against Ceara, Ponte Preta, America Mineiro, and Londrina.
- Vila Nova last 5 away matches: scored in 3 of 5, but failed to score against Cuiaba and Goias.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVila Nova not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home attack is modest (1.38 goals per game) and Vila Nova's away defense is solid (1.13 conceded per game), suggesting Juventude will struggle to score more than once.
- Juventude home goals: 11 in 8 matches, average 1.38 per game; scored 1 or fewer in 5 of 8 home games.
- Vila Nova away goals conceded: 9 in 8 matches, average 1.13 per game; conceded 1 or fewer in 6 of 8 away games.
- Juventude last 5 home matches: scored 9 goals, but 3 came in one game; 3 of 5 had under 1.5 team goals.
- Vila Nova last 5 away matches: conceded 5 goals, never more than 2 in a game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonJuventude under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defense is almost impenetrable (1 goal conceded in 8 games), and Vila Nova's away attack is inconsistent, making it likely that Vila Nova will fail to score.
- Vila Nova away goals: 9 in 8 matches, but 4 in one game; failed to score in 3 of 8 away games.
- Juventude home goals conceded: 1 in 8 matches, only goal conceded was to Sport Recife.
- Vila Nova last 5 away matches: scored 5 goals, but 2 in one game; shut out twice.
- Juventude last 5 home matches: 4 clean sheets, only goal conceded was a 0-1 loss to Sport Recife.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonVila Nova under 0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Juventude's home first halves averaging 0.5 goals and Vila Nova's away first halves averaging 0.63, making a goalless first half likely in this cautious promotion clash.
- Juventude first-half goals at home: 4 in 8 matches, average 0.5 per game; 5 of 8 home games had 0 first-half goals.
- Vila Nova first-half goals away: 5 in 8 matches, average 0.63 per game; 4 of 8 away games had 0 first-half goals.
- Juventude overall first-half goals: 8 in 15 matches, average 0.53; 8 of 15 matches had 0 first-half goals.
- Vila Nova overall first-half goals: 13 in 15 matches, average 0.87, but away from home they are less prolific.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low second-half scoring rates, with Juventude averaging 0.88 at home and Vila Nova 0.5 away, and the majority of their matches see fewer than 1.5 second-half goals, supporting a low-scoring second period.
- Juventude home second-half goals: 7 in 8 matches, average 0.88 per game; 6 of 8 home games had under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Vila Nova away second-half goals: 4 in 8 matches, average 0.5 per game; 7 of 8 away games had under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Juventude overall second-half goals: 8 in 15 matches, average 0.53; 13 of 15 matches had under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Vila Nova overall second-half goals: 10 in 15 matches, average 0.67; 12 of 15 matches had under 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home matches average 8.3 total corners, and while Vila Nova's away matches average higher, the cautious nature of this promotion clash and Juventude's defensive style should keep the corner count under 9.5.
- Juventude home corners: average 4.3 per game; opponent corners: 4.0 per game; total average 8.3.
- Vila Nova away corners: average 4.8 per game; opponent corners: 5.6 per game; total average 10.4, but last 5 away: 4.8 for, 6.6 against, total 11.4.
- Juventude last 5 home matches: total corners averaged 8.6 (Juventude 5.2, opponent 3.4).
- Vila Nova last 5 away matches: total corners averaged 10.2 (Vila Nova 4.2, opponent 6.0).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

L0-2JuventudevVila NovaAug 7, 2023SER

L1-0Vila NovavJuventudeApr 30, 2023SER

D1-1Vila NovavJuventudeApr 9, 2021COP

D0-0Vila NovavJuventudeMay 8, 2019COP

D0-0JuventudevVila NovaApr 25, 2019COP

Vila Nova unbeaten in 5 meetingsJuventude: 2 clean sheetsVila Nova: 4 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Juventude Promotion Play-offs	15	7	4	4	16-8	25	WWWLW
3	Vila Nova Promotion Play-offs	15	8	4	3	23-17	28	LWLWW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Juventude

W2-0CearaJun 28SER

W1-0São BernardoJun 21SER

W3-0Ponte PretaJun 14SER

L1-2Operario-PRJun 5SER

W3-0America MineiroMay 30SER

L0-1Sport RecifeMay 23SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 17SER

W3-1Sao PauloMay 13COP

D0-0CriciumaMay 10SER

W2-1TombenseMay 7COP

D0-0Atletico GoianienseMay 3SER

L2-3CianorteApr 30COP

W1-0LondrinaApr 26SER

L0-1Sao PauloApr 21COP

W1-0CRBApr 18SER

Vila Nova

L1-2NovorizontinoJun 26SER

W4-3Nautico RecifeJun 20SER

L0-1CuiabaJun 14SER

W1-0Botafogo SPJun 8SER

W1-0LondrinaMay 31SER

W2-1America MineiroMay 24SER

W2-0AvaiMay 17SER

L0-1GoiasMay 9SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 4SER

W2-1AraguaínaApr 29COP

D3-3CearaApr 26SER

W2-1Operario-PRApr 18SER

D0-0Capital BrasiliaApr 16COP

W1-0Ponte PretaApr 11SER

D2-2Primavera MGApr 8COP

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

56 available

Attackers11

Midfielders19

Defenders21

Goalkeeper5

Vila Nova

38 available

Attackers12

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Juventude or Draw

Juventude

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Juventude

Vila Nova

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

Vila Nova