Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Dundalk1Drogheda United2

HT 1–0Fri 10 Jul 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 9–11On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Jul 2026, 18:20 · Europe/Bucharest

The best betting value is in the cards market: over 4.5 cards at 4.00 offers a 40-point edge based on Dundalk's disciplinary record and derby intensity.

Avoid backing Dundalk to win at short odds (1.62) given the draw-heavy H2H and their modest 55% home win rate.

Context

Dundalk are fourth on 35 points, six behind third-placed St Patrick's Athletic with a game in hand.
- New signing Trevor Clarke stated on 2 July: 'it's still all to play for' regarding European qualification.
- The top three in the Premier Division earn European places, giving Dundalk a clear incentive.
Drogheda have 22 points, only two more than Waterford in the relegation playoff place.
- They are also just two points above bottom club Sligo Rovers.
- Manager Kevin Doherty stressed accountability over excuses ahead of their last match, showing the squad is under pressure.
Dundalk have received six red cards in the 2026 Premier Division, the most of any team.
- They had a player sent off in two of their last eight league matches.
- Derby matches often see increased tension and disciplinary issues.
Last five league H2H results: 1-1, 0-0, 4-2, 2-1, 0-0.
- The only multi-goal win was Dundalk's 4-2 home victory in July 2024.
- The most recent meeting at Oriel Park (February 2026) ended 1-1 with an 88th-minute Drogheda equaliser.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundalk or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's solid home form (6W-2D-3L) and Drogheda's poor away record (2W-2D-7L), combined with a draw-heavy H2H, make Dundalk or Draw highly likely.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundalk or Draw

1.14fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's strong first-half home record (82% unbeaten) and Drogheda's poor first-half away form (45% unbeaten) make Dundalk or Draw at half-time highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's strong home form and Drogheda's poor away record, combined with Dundalk's European motivation, give them the edge in a typically tight derby.
- Dundalk home record: 6W-2D-3L, 20 goals scored, 13 conceded in 11 matches.
- Drogheda away record: 2W-2D-7L, 13 goals scored, 24 conceded in 11 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 draws, 1 Drogheda win; tight derbies but Dundalk unbeaten at home in last 3 league H2H (1W,2D).
- Dundalk form last 5: W-W-W-L-L (9 points); Drogheda last 5: D-L-L-D-L (2 points).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDundalkEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's solid home form and Drogheda's struggles on the road, plus the draw-heavy H2H, make Dundalk or Draw highly likely.
- Dundalk home: only 3 losses in 11; Drogheda away: 7 losses in 11.
- H2H last 5: 4 draws, 1 away win for Drogheda; Dundalk unbeaten at home in last 3 league H2H.
- Dundalk have lost only 1 of last 5 home matches (W3 D1 L1).
- Drogheda have won only 2 of 11 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDundalk or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's tendency to start strong at home and Drogheda's poor first-half away record give Dundalk a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Dundalk home: led at half-time in 47% of matches; Drogheda away: trailed at half-time in 53%.
- Dundalk last 5 home: led at half-time in 3; Drogheda last 5 away: trailed at half-time in 4.
- H2H last 5: Dundalk led at half-time in 1, Drogheda in 1, 3 draws.
- Dundalk average first-half goals at home: 0.9; Drogheda average first-half goals conceded away: 1.1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDundalkEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Dundalk are favorites, the tight derby history and Drogheda's fight against relegation make a wire-to-wire win less likely, but still possible given form.
- Dundalk home: led at half-time and won in 4 of 11 matches (36%).
- Drogheda away: trailed at half-time and lost in 6 of 11 matches (55%).
- Last 5 H2H: no HT/FT Dundalk/Dundalk outcomes.
- Dundalk last 5 home: 2 HT/FT wins; Drogheda last 5 away: 4 HT/FT losses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDundalk/DundalkEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Winning both halves is rare for Dundalk at home, and Drogheda's resilience in derbies makes it unlikely.
- Dundalk home: won both halves in only 2 of 11 matches (18%).
- Drogheda away: lost both halves in 4 of 11 matches (36%).
- Last 5 H2H: no team won both halves.
- Dundalk last 5 home: won both halves once; Drogheda last 5 away: lost both halves twice.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's strong first-half home record and Drogheda's poor first-half away form make Dundalk or Draw at half-time highly probable.
- Dundalk home first-half: W7 D2 L2 (82% unbeaten).
- Drogheda away first-half: W1 D4 L6 (45% unbeaten).
- Last 5 H2H first-half: Dundalk led 1, drew 3, lost 1.
- Dundalk last 5 home first-half: W3 D1 L1; Drogheda last 5 away first-half: W0 D1 L4.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDundalk or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and season averages point to goals, with Drogheda's leaky away defense and Dundalk's home scoring ability supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Dundalk home matches average 3.0 total goals (20 scored, 13 conceded in 11).
- Drogheda away matches average 3.36 total goals (13 scored, 24 conceded in 11).
- Dundalk last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Drogheda last 5 away matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring and conceding records, especially in recent matches, making both teams to score a strong possibility.
- Dundalk home: scored in 10 of 11, conceded in 8 of 11.
- Drogheda away: scored in 8 of 11, conceded in 10 of 11.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but recent form suggests more openness.
- Dundalk last 5 home: both scored in 4; Drogheda last 5 away: both scored in 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High likelihood of at least one first-half goal given both teams' tendencies, especially Drogheda's poor first-half defensive record away.
- Dundalk home first-half goals: 0.9 scored, 0.6 conceded on average; 73% of home matches had a first-half goal.
- Drogheda away first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 1.1 conceded on average; 82% of away matches had a first-half goal.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had a first-half goal.
- Dundalk last 5 home: 4 had a first-half goal; Drogheda last 5 away: all 5 had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open in matches involving these teams, with Drogheda's defense often conceding late, supporting over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Dundalk home second-half goals: 1.1 scored, 0.7 conceded on average; 64% of home matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Drogheda away second-half goals: 0.7 scored, 1.3 conceded on average; 73% of away matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Dundalk last 5 home: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals; Drogheda last 5 away: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves tend to be tighter in this fixture, with both teams scoring before the break occurring in less than half of recent matches.
- Dundalk home first-half: both teams scored in 4 of 11 (36%).
- Drogheda away first-half: both teams scored in 4 of 11 (36%).
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in first half in 1 of 5.
- Dundalk last 5 home: both scored in first half in 2; Drogheda last 5 away: both scored in first half in 2.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk rarely keep clean sheets at home, and Drogheda have scored in most recent away matches, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Dundalk home: clean sheets in 3 of 11 (27%).
- Drogheda away: failed to score in 3 of 11 (27%).
- Last 5 H2H: Dundalk kept clean sheet in 2, but both were 0-0 draws.
- Dundalk last 5 home: clean sheet in 1; Drogheda last 5 away: scored in 4.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDrogheda United to scoreEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' season averages and recent matches suggest a total corners around 10-11, making over 9.5 a reasonable but low-confidence call.
- Dundalk home average corners: 5.6 for, opponent corners: 4.7; total average 10.3.
- Drogheda away average corners: 4.4 for, opponent corners: 6.5; total average 10.9.
- Last 5 H2H: corner data available for 3 matches, totals: 7, 7, 11.
- Dundalk last 5 home: average total corners 10.2; Drogheda last 5 away: average total corners 10.6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derby intensity and Dundalk's disciplinary record, combined with season card averages, point to a higher card count.
- Dundalk home average yellow cards: 2.4, opponent: 2.5; total average 4.9.
- Drogheda away average yellow cards: 2.0, opponent: 2.5; total average 4.5.
- Dundalk have the most red cards in the league (6), adding card volatility.
- Last 5 H2H: card data limited, but derby context often increases discipline issues.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 4D · 1W

D1-1Drogheda UnitedvDundalkMay 22, 2026PRE

D1-1DundalkvDrogheda UnitedFeb 20, 2026PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedvDundalkJan 30, 2026FRI

D0-0Drogheda UnitedvDundalkNov 1, 2024PRE

L2-1Drogheda UnitedvDundalkJul 19, 2024FAI

Drogheda United unbeaten in 5 meetingsDundalk: 2 clean sheetsDrogheda United: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Dundalk	23	9	8	6	37-34	35	LLWWW
8	Drogheda United	23	5	7	11	27-40	22	LLDLD

13pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Dundalk

L1-2ShelbourneJul 3PRE

L2-3WaterfordJun 26PRE

W2-1BohemiansJun 19PRE

W1-0Galway UnitedJun 12PRE

W2-1Derry CityMay 29PRE

D1-1Drogheda UnitedMay 22PRE

W1-0Shamrock RoversMay 15PRE

L1-3BohemiansMay 8PRE

D3-3WaterfordMay 4PRE

L1-2ShelbourneMay 1PRE

L0-2Sligo RoversApr 25PRE

W2-1Galway UnitedApr 17PRE

D2-2Derry CityApr 10PRE

W2-0St Patrick's Athl.Apr 6PRE

W3-2ShelbourneApr 3PRE

Drogheda United

L0-2BohemiansJul 3PRE

L0-2Derry CityJun 26PRE

D2-2ShelbourneJun 19PRE

L0-2St Patrick's Athl.Jun 12PRE

D3-3WaterfordMay 29PRE

D1-1DundalkMay 22PRE

L1-2WaterfordMay 18PRE

L1-2BohemiansMay 15PRE

W1-0Derry CityMay 8PRE

L1-4Shamrock RoversMay 4PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMay 1PRE

W4-3ShelbourneApr 24PRE

L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 17PRE

L2-3Galway UnitedApr 6PRE

D0-0BohemiansApr 3PRE

Squad & Injuries

Dundalk

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Drogheda United

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 4.5

Dundalk or Draw

Dundalk or Draw

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Dundalk

Dundalk at half-time / Dundalk at full-time

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Dundalk

Drogheda United

Squad & Injuries

Dundalk

Drogheda United