UEFA Europa LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

CSKA Sofia3Derry City2

HT 2–1Thu 9 Jul 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–325%

Yellow CardsYellow Cards 0–1Red CardsRed Cards 0–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Jul 2026, 01:47 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA Sofia are strong favorites at home, but the market overrates their win probability (80% implied vs. 55% estimated).

The best value lies in under 2.5 goals (offered at 2.30, edge +21.5pts) and under 1.5 first-half goals (1.57, edge +6.3pts), driven by CSKA's low-scoring home trend and Derry City's depleted attack. Avoid the short-priced home win and over 2.5 goals markets.

Context

On 14 Jun 2026, Lynch said Thomas and Akinyemi were leaving, with other players also departing or injured.
- Lynch described the squad as 'thin on the ground' and expected 4-5 July additions.
- Derry failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
CSKA won 4 and drew 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- They kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5 home games.
- CSKA's last 15 home matches averaged only 2.1 total goals, with 60% staying under 2.5.
This is the first leg of a two-legged tie, with the return on 16 Jul.
- The loser enters Conference League second qualifying, reducing desperation.
- CSKA averaged only 0.3 first-half goals at home; Derry averaged 0.6 first-half goals away.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's strong home form and Derry City's away struggles, combined with Derry's squad thinness up front, give the hosts a clear edge in the first leg.
- CSKA Sofia won 4 of last 5 home matches across all competitions (W4 D1 L0).
- Derry City lost 3 of last 5 away matches (W1 D1 L3), conceding 2+ goals in 3 of those 5.
- CSKA Sofia averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over last 15 matches; Derry City averaged 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- H2H: CSKA Sofia unbeaten in 2 meetings (1-0 home, 1-1 away) in 2009-10 Europa League qualifiers.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's strong home record and Derry City's poor away form, plus the motivational edge of Europa League progression, make a home win or draw highly likely.
- CSKA Sofia lost only 1 of last 5 home matches (W4 D1 L1).
- Derry City won only 1 of last 5 away matches (W1 D1 L3).
- CSKA Sofia's home form in last 15: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss (from 10 home matches with known venue).
- Derry City's away form in last 15: 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses (from 9 away matches).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCSKA Sofia or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's slow starts at home and Derry City's mixed first-half away form suggest a level scoreline at the break is the most probable outcome.
- CSKA Sofia led at halftime in only 27% of last 15 matches; trailed in 40%.
- Derry City led at halftime in 47% of last 15 matches; trailed in 27%.
- CSKA Sofia's last 5 home matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss at halftime.
- Derry City's last 5 away matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia tends to improve after halftime at home, while Derry City's away second-half record is poor, giving the hosts an edge to win the second period.
- CSKA Sofia scored 0.9 second-half goals on average over last 15 matches (1.2 total - 0.3 first-half).
- Derry City conceded 0.8 second-half goals on average over last 15 matches (1.2 total - 0.4 first-half).
- CSKA Sofia won the second half in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Derry City lost the second half in 3 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCSKA SofiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a CSKA Sofia win aligns with their home pattern of slow starts and stronger finishes, though the exact sequence is not highly probable.
- CSKA Sofia drew at halftime in 4 of last 10 home matches.
- CSKA Sofia won 6 of last 10 home matches overall.
- Derry City drew at halftime in 2 of last 9 away matches, but lost 5 of those 9 overall.
- CSKA Sofia's pattern: often level at break, then stronger in second half at home.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / CSKA SofiaEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a tendency for low-scoring games, especially CSKA Sofia at home, and Derry City's attacking absences reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring affair.
- CSKA Sofia's last 15 matches averaged 2.1 total goals; 8 of 15 had under 2.5 goals.
- Derry City's last 15 matches averaged 2.5 total goals; 8 of 15 had under 2.5 goals.
- CSKA Sofia's home matches in last 15: 6 of 10 had under 2.5 goals.
- Derry City's away matches in last 15: 5 of 9 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's solid home defense and Derry City's weakened attack make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- CSKA Sofia kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Derry City failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded only 0.9 goals per game on average over last 15 matches.
- Derry City scored only 1.3 goals per game on average over last 15 matches, with key forwards departing.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's recent home defensive solidity and Derry City's attacking struggles increase the chance of a home clean sheet, though Derry's ability to score in bigger games adds uncertainty.
- CSKA Sofia kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Derry City failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded only 0.9 goals per game on average over last 15 matches.
- Derry City's attacking options are depleted with key forwards leaving.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDerry City not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the cautious nature of a first-leg European tie supports a slow start with few goals before halftime.
- CSKA Sofia averaged 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Derry City averaged 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded over last 15 matches.
- CSKA Sofia's last 5 home matches: only 1 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Derry City's last 5 away matches: only 1 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's high corner count at home and Derry City's decent corner numbers suggest the total corners could exceed 9.5, though data is limited.
- CSKA Sofia averaged 6.3 corners per game over last 15 matches; opponents averaged 4.7.
- Derry City averaged 4.9 corners per game over last 15 matches; opponents averaged 4.7.
- Combined average corners in CSKA Sofia matches: 11.0; in Derry City matches: 9.6.
- CSKA Sofia's home matches averaged 11.4 total corners (from 5 matches with data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derry City's high disciplinary card count, especially away from home, pushes the expected total cards above 4.5 in what could be a tense European qualifier.
- CSKA Sofia averaged 2.0 yellow cards per game over last 15 matches.
- Derry City averaged 3.5 yellow cards per game over last 15 matches.
- Combined average cards in CSKA Sofia matches: 4.0; in Derry City matches: 5.5.
- Derry City received 5+ yellow cards in 3 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Recent Form

CSKA Sofia

W3-0MarekJul 3FRI

L0-4PolessyaJun 24FRI

W2-1Brinje-GrosupljeJun 20FRI

L0-1LudogoretsMay 25FIR

L0-2Levski SofiaMay 16FIR

D1-1CSKA 1948May 13FIR

W1-0CSKA 1948May 8FIR

W1-0LudogoretsMay 3FIR

D0-0LudogoretsApr 29CUP

L1-3Levski SofiaApr 25FIR

W2-1LudogoretsApr 21CUP

D1-1Levski SofiaApr 13FIR

W1-0MontanaApr 8FIR

W3-0BeroeApr 4FIR

W2-0DobrudzhaMar 22FIR

Derry City

L2-4WaterfordJul 3PRE

W2-0Drogheda UnitedJun 26PRE

D1-1Shamrock RoversJun 22PRE

L1-2Galway UnitedJun 19PRE

W4-1BohemiansJun 12PRE

L1-2DundalkMay 29PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMay 25PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.May 22PRE

D2-2WaterfordMay 15PRE

L0-1Drogheda UnitedMay 8PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedMay 4PRE

D1-1BohemiansMay 1PRE

W1-0Shamrock RoversApr 24PRE

W2-1ShelbourneApr 17PRE

D2-2DundalkApr 10PRE

Squad & Injuries

CSKA Sofia

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Derry City

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

CSKA Sofia3Derry City2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw at half-time / CSKA Sofia at full-time

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

CSKA Sofia or Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia, draw no bet

Over 2.5

Recent Form

CSKA Sofia

Derry City

Squad & Injuries

CSKA Sofia

Derry City