USA11 – 4Belgium4

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Belgium's dominant H2H record and superior recent form, combined with USA's key suspension, give Belgium a clear edge, though fatigue from their 144-minute Round of 32 match adds some uncertainty.

• Belgium have won 6 straight H2H meetings since 1930, including a 5-2 friendly in March 2026.
• Belgium average 3.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over last 15 matches; USA average 1.9 scored and 1.5 conceded.
• USA are without suspended forward Balogun (3 goals in tournament), lowering their attacking threat.
• Belgium's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, scoring 12 goals; USA's last 5: 3 wins, 2 losses, scoring 11 but conceding 6.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBelgiumEstimated chance45%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Belgium's historical dominance and current defensive stability make a USA win unlikely, supporting a double chance for Belgium to avoid defeat.

• Belgium have not lost to USA in 6 meetings (5 wins, 1 draw) since 1930.
• Belgium's last 15 matches: only 2 losses, both in friendlies; USA have 5 losses in same span.
• USA's home/neutral record in last 15: 7 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw; Belgium away/neutral: 5 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss.
• Belgium's defensive record: 0.8 goals conceded per game vs USA's 1.5 conceded.

BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BelgiumEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Belgium's superior fitness and depth may see them grow into the game, but a draw at halftime is more likely than a Belgium lead, making this a speculative combo.

• Belgium have come from behind or drawn at halftime to win in 2 of last 15 matches.
• USA have lost after leading at halftime once in last 15.
• Belgium's second-half strength: they average 2.1 second-half goals vs USA's 0.6.
• Fatigue factor: Belgium played 144 minutes in last match, which could slow them early.

BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/BelgiumEstimated chance25%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and the last H2H was a 7-goal affair, suggesting goals are likely in this knockout clash.

• Belgium's last 15 matches average 4.0 total goals (3.2 scored, 0.8 conceded); USA's average 3.4 total goals.
• Last H2H meeting in March 2026 ended 5-2 (7 goals).
• USA's last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals; Belgium's last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
• Belgium's shots total average 20.8 per game, indicating high chance creation.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams consistently find the net, and despite Balogun's absence, USA's attack remains capable against a Belgium side that has kept only 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.

• USA have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches; Belgium have scored in 13 of their last 15.
• USA conceded in 11 of last 15; Belgium conceded in 8 of last 15.
• Last H2H: both teams scored (5-2).
• USA's attack without Balogun still has Pulisic returning, and they scored 2 vs Bosnia without Balogun for 26 minutes.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to start quickly, with USA particularly strong in first halves recently, but Belgium's solid defense may limit early goals, making this a low-confidence over.

• USA average 1.3 first-half goals in last 15; Belgium average 1.1 first-half goals.
• USA's last 5 matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (2, 3, 1, 1, 1); Belgium's last 5: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (1, 0, 0, 1, 1).
• Belgium led at halftime in 60% of last 15 matches; USA led at halftime in 40%.
• Last H2H: first half ended 1-1.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Belgium's second-half scoring prowess and potential fatigue-induced gaps suggest the second half will see more goals than the first.

• Belgium average 2.1 second-half goals in last 15; USA average 0.6 second-half goals.
• USA concede 0.6 second-half goals on average; Belgium concede 0.4.
• Last H2H: second half had 4 goals (from 1-1 at HT to 5-2).
• Fatigue could open up spaces late, benefiting Belgium's attack.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

USA's consistent scoring record and Belgium's occasional defensive lapses make a Belgium clean sheet unlikely.

• USA have scored in 13 of last 15 matches, including against strong teams like Germany and Portugal.
• Belgium have kept clean sheets in only 7 of last 15 matches.
• USA scored 2 goals in last H2H despite losing 5-2.
• Pulisic's return boosts USA's creative output.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Belgium's potent attack, led by Lukaku and supported by a deep squad, should breach a USA defense that has shown vulnerability.

• Belgium average 3.2 goals per game in last 15, with 2+ in 12 of 15 matches.
• Belgium scored 5, 0, 1, 5, 2 in last 5 matches (3 of 5 over 1.5).
• USA concede 1.5 goals per game on average, with 2+ conceded in 5 of last 15.
• Last H2H: Belgium scored 5 goals.

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBelgium over 1.5Estimated chance60%