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Predictions graded

Londrina5CRB AL0

HT 2–0Sat 4 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 1–5On targetOn target 1–3CornersCorners 2–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jun 2026, 18:02 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation six-pointer likely to be tight and low-scoring, with the draw offering a small edge at 3.25.

The best value is over 4.5 cards at 1.80, given both teams’ high foul counts and the survival stakes. Avoid backing either side to win outright or both teams to score, as the data supports a cagey, card-heavy stalemate.

Context

CRB's June 24 training report quoted Mikael saying the team could not be comfortable near the bottom and called the next games direct confrontations.
- CRB are 16th with 16 points from 14 games, only one point above Londrina in 17th, making a loss potentially drop them into the relegation zone.
Londrina sacked Allan Aal on May 4 after a six-game winless Série B run and appointed Micale on May 8.
- Under Micale, Londrina have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 3 at home, with only one clean sheet in that span.
Londrina's official site lists the fixture at Estádio Vitorino Gonçalves Dias, while the competition page still lists Estádio do Café as the default.
- The venue change may disrupt Londrina's usual home setup, though the impact is uncertain.
Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals, with only one exceeding 2 goals.
- The most recent meeting at Londrina in October 2023 ended 1-1.
- Both teams average around 1.5 goals scored and conceded this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High motivation/stakes for both relegation-threatened sides, combined with Londrina's home draws and CRB's away draws, points to a stalemate.
- Londrina home record: 2W-2D-3L (9GF, 10GA) in 7 matches, with 2 draws in last 3 home games.
- CRB away record: 2W-3D-2L (11GF, 13GA) in 7 matches, with 3 draws in last 5 away games.
- H2H last 5: 1 draw, 4 home wins; last meeting at Londrina ended 1-1 in Oct 2023.
- Both teams in relegation zone, separated by 1 point; survival stakes high, likely cautious approach.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home resilience and CRB's poor away form, plus H2H home dominance, make a home win or draw likely.
- Londrina home: unbeaten in 3 of last 5 (2W,1D,2L), with losses only to top-half sides.
- CRB away: only 2 wins in 7, with 3 draws; lost 2 of last 3 away.
- H2H: Londrina unbeaten in last 3 home meetings vs CRB (2W,1D).
- Londrina's new coach Micale has had 8 weeks to implement system; slight home edge.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLondrina or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High probability of a level first half given both teams' slow starts and the cautious nature of a relegation clash.
- Londrina HT record: led in 20%, trailed in 40% of last 15; at home, led in 1 of last 5.
- CRB HT record: led in 40%, trailed in 27% of last 15; away, led in 2 of last 5.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at HT, 2 home leads; last meeting at Londrina was 0-0 at HT.
- Both teams' first-half scoring is low, with Londrina averaging 0.4 goals before break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full draw is plausible given the match context, but historical data shows few HT/FT draws, so probability is modest.
- Londrina home: 2 draws in last 5, both were 0-0 at HT and FT? Actually, one 0-0 vs Ceara, one 2-2 vs Goias (1-1 HT).
- CRB away: 3 draws in last 5, with 2 being 1-1 (one 1-0 HT, one 1-1 HT).
- H2H: only 1 draw in last 5, but that was 1-1 with 0-0 HT.
- Low-scoring patterns and mutual fear of losing support a stalemate throughout.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring trends in both teams' home/away splits and H2H history, amplified by survival stakes, suggest a tight, low-goal affair.
- Londrina home: 6 of 7 games had under 2.5 goals (avg total 2.7, but median 2).
- CRB away: 4 of 7 games under 2.5 goals; last 3 away all under 2.5.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, with only one exceeding 2 goals.
- Both teams average ~1.5 goals scored/conceded; relegation pressure often suppresses scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H low BTTS rate and current relegation caution make a shutout on one side plausible, though both teams' leaky defenses add risk.
- Londrina home: failed to score in 2 of last 5; kept clean sheet in 1 of last 5.
- CRB away: failed to score in 2 of last 5; kept clean sheet in 1 of last 5.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 meetings.
- Londrina averages 1.3 goals/game, CRB 1.6, but both concede ~1.5; defensive focus expected.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring averages for both sides, especially Londrina, and typical cagey starts in high-stakes matches point to a quiet opening period.
- Londrina first-half goals: avg 0.4, conceded 0.7; only 20% led at HT in last 15.
- CRB first-half goals: avg 1.0, conceded 0.7; but away first-half goals lower (0.6 avg in last 5 away).
- Last 5 H2H: only 1 match had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Relegation six-pointer likely to start cautiously, with both teams avoiding early risks.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While first halves are tight, second halves often see more goals as teams push for a winner, though evidence is mixed, hence low confidence.
- Londrina second-half goals: 0.9 avg (1.3 total - 0.4 first half); concede 0.9 after HT.
- CRB second-half goals: 0.6 avg (1.6 total - 1.0 first half); concede 0.8 after HT.
- In last 5 matches, Londrina saw 3 with over 1.5 second-half goals; CRB saw 2.
- Tactical shifts and fatigue in a must-not-lose game could open spaces late.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages hover around 10-11, and with both teams likely to attack cautiously, set-pieces could inflate the count, though data is thin.
- Londrina home corners: avg 5.2 for, 6.7 against in last 15; total avg ~11.9.
- CRB away corners: avg 5.0 for, 5.7 against in last 15; total avg ~10.7.
- Last 5 H2H: corner data unavailable, but both teams' recent matches show high corner counts (e.g., Londrina's last home: 14 corners total).
- Both teams average over 5 corners per game, and tight matches often produce more corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High foul and card averages for both teams, plus the intense survival context, make a card-heavy match likely.
- Londrina home: avg 2.7 yellow, 0.6 red per game; last 5 home: 3, 2, 5, 1, 4 yellows.
- CRB away: avg 2.4 yellow, 1.0 red per game; last 5 away: 1, 4, 0, 4, 4 yellows.
- Combined avg cards: 5.1 yellows + 1.6 reds per game; high foul counts (Londrina 13, CRB 12.6).
- Relegation six-pointer typically sees increased aggression and disciplinary actions.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D1-1LondrinavCRBOct 29, 2023SER

L2-1CRBvLondrinaJul 1, 2023SER

W1-0LondrinavCRBAug 30, 2022SER

L1-0CRBvLondrinaMay 19, 2022SER

L1-0CRBvLondrinaNov 11, 2021SER

CRB AL: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Londrina Relegation	15	4	3	8	19-24	15	DWWLL
16	CRB AL	14	4	4	6	23-24	16	DDLLW

1pt gap between teamsLondrina in relegation zone

Recent Form

Londrina

D2-2CuiabaJun 25SER

W2-0Athletic ClubJun 20SER

W3-2AvaiJun 16SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 6SER

L0-1Vila NovaMay 31SER

L0-3Fortaleza ECMay 23SER

W4-1Ponte PretaMay 18SER

L1-3São BernardoMay 12SER

L0-3Operario-PRMay 3SER

L0-1JuventudeApr 26SER

D0-0CearaApr 19SER

L1-2Atletico GoianienseApr 12SER

L1-2Sport RecifeApr 4SER

D2-2GoiasApr 1SER

W3-1NovorizontinoMar 22SER

CRB AL

D1-1Fortaleza ECJun 21SER

D3-3Atletico GoianienseJun 12SER

L2-3São BernardoJun 7SER

L0-2CuiabaMay 31SER

W4-2Ponte PretaMay 24SER

W2-1Sport RecifeMay 17SER

D0-0Fortaleza ECMay 14COP

W3-0Operario-PRMay 9SER

W2-1America MineiroMay 3SER

W3-0SousaApr 30COP

L1-3CriciumaApr 26SER

L1-2Fortaleza ECApr 22COP

L0-1JuventudeApr 18SER

D0-0Fluminense PIApr 15COP

L2-3Athletic ClubApr 12SER

Squad & Injuries

Londrina

37 available

Attackers10

Midfielders13

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

CRB AL

43 available

Attackers12

Midfielders12

Defenders15

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Over 4.5

Londrina or Draw

Under 1.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Londrina

CRB AL

Squad & Injuries

Londrina

CRB AL